#2469 Postby soonertwister » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:00 pm
One of the big problems in Jamaica is that they have gone through a lot of hurricanes, but in general they've been more the garden variety category 1-2 storms. I don't think Jamaica has ever been hit by a cat-5 in modern times, and the worst recent storm was Gilbert.
This is no Gilbert. The latest track has the core of the hurricane going directly over Kingston, where roughly 1/3-1/4 the entire population of Jamaica lives. Many many of those persons live in shacks and shanties, many on the steep hillsides outside of central Kingston. Those hillsides are at grave risk of major mudslides in many places where significant populations live, and the housing of the typical Jamaican will not survive a category 4-5 storm. There are roughly 120 rivers that bring rainwater down from the mountains at elevations of up to 7400 feet. Jamaica is mostly hilly and mountainous terrain.
It is so different than if a strong cane goes over a sandy coral atoll, like what would be found in the Bahamas. As long as the island has enough height to avoid storm surge inundation, and sturdy housing is the norm rather than the exception, human catastrophe never occurs, although structural damage can be major. Sandy low-lying islands don't have major flooding problems outside of surge except minor building flooding. In Jamaica entire hillsides can come down with the trees and houses, and the people living in them.
If this thing goes right over Kingston, I guarantee you that it will be the worst hurricane disaster in the West Indies in many years.
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