GFS Out of Rehab? Is it on to Something?

[MWatkins]

...EDITED TO CHANGE EMBEDDED IMAGES TO LINKS...

I know folks have read that the GFS is on crack...drugs...and/or other prohibited substances. I am not convinced of this...especially lately. Perhaps it has completed model rehab. There are 2 reasons that the most recent solution....although disparate from the other models...should not be summarily dismissed.

First...note in water vapor imagery the mid/upper low located near 30N 55W. This is a fairly strong feature that the models...other than the GFS...tend to be under representing.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/t ... pics.x.jpg

In 2 to 3 days the GFS has consistently spun this low up and under the Atlantic ridge to 68W or so where it noses the Atlantic ridge...creating an opening and breaking down the steering currents:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060s.gif

The GFS then stalls the hurricane for a time...until it connects with a weakness created by the system over the Great Lakes in the above image.

The 12Z was a little faster with this feature and had it passing the hurricane by. The 18Z is more consistent with the previous 4 or 5 runs of the model...and shows enough influence to draw the hurricane up out of the Caribbean on a path east of the other models.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096s.gif

The key players...in my opinion...become the ULL to the east and the system rotating around the Great Lakes that should affect the eastern US in 3 days or so.

I suppose we'll see...this is the solution NOBODY wants to see...and I hope it does NOT verify. GFS model haters...fire when ready.

MW

[huricanwatcher]

that ridge is going to wrap down and under and send IVAN searching........... (east coast) UGH

[x-y-no]

Excellent writeup, MW. I've been looking at this for the last day or so, and trying (in my own incoherent way) to point this out. You explained it much better and more completely than I could.

Oh, and definitely put me in the "I sure as hell hope this doesn't verify" camp.

[WeatherEmperor]

Mike I would never argue against you. You are just too damn good at recognizing these patterns. But seriously I agree with you. My local mets here in Broward county also make very similar mention to how the ULL might go around the high pressure ridge and potentially turn Ivan north sooner then the other models do. Very very interesting reasoning Mike, as always.

<RICKY>

[Tommedic]

Mike, I have appreciated your posts since we were on PB Storm2000. I have mixed emotions. I would not like to have Ivan visit, But more importantly, I think Florida has seen enough. To sea would be best, but so unlikely.

[Canelaw99]

If that were to occur, would that result in a direct hit on Dade County, or would Ivan then just traverse up the coast and continue to be a nuisance to other parts of the SE US coast???

[Brent]

If that were to occur, would that result in a direct hit on Dade County, or would Ivan then just traverse up the coast and continue to be a nuisance to other parts of the SE US coast???

Direct hit on Miami I think, then going up the coast and affecting areas farther north.

[ALhurricane]

I only use drug related references with the GFS when I think the model is completely off basis (i.e. bringing Frances through a 592dm ridge.) I cannot use such terms with the latest runs of the GFS...as they have trended into better overall agreement with the other models.

I do think it handles the central atlantic closed low fairly well and this will be the important feature to track in terms of when Ivan turns. The problem I continue to have is the fact that the GFS almost immediately starts Ivan moving toward the NW in every single run. The GFS has Ivan north of Jamaica by 36 hours. Given the Ivan's current movement, I do not believe that will happen. I also think that where the storm is in relation to Jamaica is crutial, especially if the storm slows down or stalls for a given time when the steering currents break down.

Overall, the GFS has trended better, but I still believe it is still too far east. I don't think it's on drugs this go around. I just have some disagreements with it.

Let the record also show that I do not believe it is fair to ALWAYS bash the GFS because it is the GFS. Those that do so, really don't understand the model at all.

[Canelaw99]

Yikes! TY Brent....good thing I never took down all the plywood

[B-Bear]

If that were to occur, would that result in a direct hit on Dade County, or would Ivan then just traverse up the coast and continue to be a nuisance to other parts of the SE US coast???

Direct hit on Miami I think, then going up the coast and affecting areas farther north.

The worst possible scenario...a situation where the Florida and Carolina people I disagree with both get to claim victory.

[Guest]

MW, If and I mean IF it's finally getting off the habit it should shift a little more west OR simply stay where it's at 2 to 4 runs. Nothing like trends with models, and not going by one run as you know.

[Brent]

If that were to occur, would that result in a direct hit on Dade County, or would Ivan then just traverse up the coast and continue to be a nuisance to other parts of the SE US coast???

Direct hit on Miami I think, then going up the coast and affecting areas farther north.

The worst possible scenario...a situation where the Florida and Carolina people I disagree with both get to claim victory.

LOL

Well at least all would be happy.

[calidoug]

Alhurricane, Ivan's current movement *is* NW (310 or so)...

[CourierPR]

Mike, our local met, Bill Kamaal, said that the upper low would have no influence on Ivan. Has he been hitting the bottle again?

[ALhurricane]

I get around a 300 motion for the past 3 hours with a long term motion
between 290 and 295. I am not ruling out a run over Jamaica, I just don't see it north like the GFS, that's all.

[Dean4Storms]

The steering is wnw toward Jamaica and then toward western Cuba, don't know what the GFS is on, but it did this very same thing with Frances. For some reason it is not analyzing the steering layer to well. Remember, it had Frances going to NC as late as the day Frances turned wnw toward Palm Bch.

Steering layer.............

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 2java.html

[bobbisboy]

Excellent analysis Mike of a possible scenario. All the more reason for everyone to stay alert to any possible track here.

[Stephanie]

Thanks Mike for your analysis!

[ALhurricane]

ToHellWithWishCasters151,

I think your comments toward Mike are completely off base with no facts supporting it. I don't know if you are trying to get a rise out of people by posting that, but frankly it is out of line.

I know Mike can speak for himself, but let me just say that he is very intelligent and highly respected on this board. If you really think Mike is -removed- this storm to S FL, then you really don't know him at all.

Why don't you actually READ his post instead of inferring what you want out of it. You might learn something....

[Rainband]

Not surprizing that you agree with this model. It has it headed for S FL exactly what your wanting and been wanting for some time now. Just wait when the model shifts back into the atlantic out to sea or shifts towards the other gulf coast states, then you will be the first to say that the gfs is wrong. It really is ashame that you have become sort of a wishcaster as of late, i used to take you seriously but now idk...When a supposed "good" forcaster as yourself aims it for south fl(your living area) instead of the most likely area at this time(the panhandle or mobile(sp) then i have to start asking questions. Maybe the people in FL have just gone insane from all the hits you've taken in the last month. If i am wrong and it does hit S FL then more credit to you and i will surely eat the crow thats served to me.

This is the only warning you get Mike deserves respect so please give him some