Ivan Advisories

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huricanwatcher
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#2561 Postby huricanwatcher » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:56 pm

in whos eyes?


still looks like a monster to me........
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#2562 Postby Guest » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:56 pm

i was in darwin in 2001, and it looked great. they had a museum on the history of the city. the pictures of tracy were amazing. i think 70% of the structures were destroyed, and all were damaged or something. but its not that big, even now it only has about 85,000 people.
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calidoug
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#2563 Postby calidoug » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:56 pm

Should be 923mb
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#2564 Postby Jetman » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:56 pm

Yep, wouldn't be surprised to see a Cat 5 in 6 hours again
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Brent
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Re: IVAN weakening (a bit)

#2565 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:56 pm

Jetman wrote:000
URNT12 KNHC 092329
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/2329Z
B. 15 DEG 09 MIN N
72 DEG 43 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2429 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 067 DEG 129 KT
G. 324 DEG 013 NM
H. 924 MB
I. 9 C/ 3105 M
J. 18 C/ 3063 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C10
N. 12345/7
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF977 1109A IVAN OB 19
MAX FL WIND 129 KT NW QUAD 2324Z.

;


144 kt in the NE Quadrant... still a 150 mph Category 4.
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#2566 Postby Coldfront » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:56 pm

Yeah, W.U.'s SHIPS is predicting 158 mph winds in 24 hrs. Isn't that about the same time it'll be hitting Jamaica?
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WeatherEmperor
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#2567 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:56 pm

Wouldnt surprise me to see a Cat 6 later tonight. lol

<RICKY>
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#2568 Postby canegrl04 » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:57 pm

Yep. EWRC.Tomorrow will be a mcuh different story :eek:
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#2569 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:57 pm

Matthew5 wrote:I would not be surprized if the next recon found pressures down around 918 or lower. With winds of 175 to 180 flight level. When is the next recon?


2am EDT.
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#2570 Postby Guest » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:57 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:000
URNT12 KNHC 092329
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/2329Z
B. 15 DEG 09 MIN N
72 DEG 43 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2429 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 067 DEG 129 KT
G. 324 DEG 013 NM
H. 924 MB
I. 9 C/ 3105 M
J. 18 C/ 3063 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C10
N. 12345/7
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF977 1109A IVAN OB 19
MAX FL WIND 129 KT NW QUAD 2324Z.

Up to 924...good guess though :)


Yea they are making there loops right now. Why have you such anger for me grasshopper?
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jlauderdal
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#2571 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:58 pm

chris_fit wrote:i dont see why the track was shifted so far west at 5


because avila and stewart have a cat n mouse game going...they are honing on a track as usual...this is tough ass forecast beyond 48 hours especially if those steering currents collapse as they probably will
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#2572 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:58 pm

Yeah it was my fault not to mention this in my first post but we should wait for more and more trends to occur and for the models to start focusing in on a landfall point. Until that happens, the models can flip flop once again and things will get complicated.

<RICKY>
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huricanwatcher
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#2573 Postby huricanwatcher » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:59 pm

even the wacko ukmet is gettin on board......


need say more...... Im sorry
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Rainband

#2574 Postby Rainband » Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:00 pm

The NHC has done very well this year. I wonder nothing about their ability. Sorry but they are the experts :wink: I just wish they were wrong more :lol:
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Cape Verde
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#2575 Postby Cape Verde » Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:01 pm

mf_dolphin wrote:Cape Verde that's not correct. When you post a picture it does take up bandwidth. Links do not.
<P>I respectfully disagree. The site that actually hosts the picture gets the hits, which is why you see many domains and sites putting blocking measures in place to prevent the linking of photos to another site.<P>A photo posted on this site can prevent quickly downloading a particular topic if the person who posted it didn't put in the width and height dimension. But that's still not the same thing as taking up bandwidth here. I'm not spouting some lunatic theory here. This is established fact among experienced webmasters.<P>However, I have every intention of abiding by this rule here. It's not my forum, and I don't get to make the rules.
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#2576 Postby PurdueWx80 » Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:01 pm

I was talking to Matthew5...showing him the latest recon report. I don't have a link to a forecast or anything. I don't make official forecasts (just a grad student) but I am still in line with the Canadian - which means a further west trek than most other models are showing. I think Ivan will pass just south of Jamaica (outer portions of eyewall may still brush southern coast), over western Cuba near or west of where Charley made it, and then into the east-central Gulf. My ultimate US landfall would be between the Mississippi river and perhaps Tampa. I suppose I can narrow this down if the GEM stops w/ it's further west track....which it hasn't for ages now. The further west this bad boy gets in the Gulf...the stronger it will be (waters have yet to be touched this year and are practically boiling).
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ColdFront77

#2577 Postby ColdFront77 » Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:06 pm

Hurricane Ivan's movement in the last 24 hours (from 8:00 PM ET, Wednesday through 8:00 PM Eastern, Thursday):

..8:00 pm, Wed. . to 11:00 pm, .Wed.: 49.0 miles
11:00 pm, Wed. . to ..2:00 am, Thurs.: 27.7 miles
..2:00 am, Thurs. to ..5:00 am, Thurs.: 36.2 miles
..5:00 am, Thurs. to ..8:00 am, Thurs.: 51.2 miles
..8:00 am, Thurs. to 11:00 am, Thurs.: 51.2 miles
11:00 am, Thurs. to ..2:00 pm, Thurs.: 45.2 miles
..2:00 pm, Thurs. to ..5:00 pm, Thurs.: 36.0 miles
..5:00 pm, Thurs. to ..8:00 pm, Thurs.: 24.2 miles
Last edited by ColdFront77 on Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:23 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#2578 Postby FL_Watcher » Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:08 pm

I am in Polk County. I will be honest with you I ahve no clue where it is going, but figure if we do get it, it'll be a cat 3. I guess I'll just get as prepared as I can for this storm. My only question is, where will the rain go, there is no more room for much more? :?:
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#2579 Postby x-y-no » Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:08 pm

Change in track which way? North doesn't really make sense to me, so maybe it's going to turn more westerly again?
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ExtinctionEvent

#2580 Postby ExtinctionEvent » Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:09 pm

I just left jamaicantalk.com, and they are all saying group prayers together. A very touching board. Alot of them have crying icons on all their posts. The island of Jamaica are definately in my prayers. I hope their group call to god gets answered tommorrow.
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