Ivan Advisories

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
brudeb
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 19
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:56 pm
Location: Palm Coast, FL

#2601 Postby brudeb » Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:25 pm

I am just learning about all this. What does that mean? :?:
0 likes   

User avatar
hial2
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 809
Joined: Fri Oct 10, 2003 9:20 pm
Location: Indian trail N.C.

#2602 Postby hial2 » Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:26 pm

Calidoug, don't minimize the power of prayer..I know first hand
0 likes   

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7191
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

#2603 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:26 pm

tronbunny wrote:
ColdFront77 wrote:.....and.....

11:00 pm, Wed. to ..2:00 am, Thurs.: 27.7 miles

Significant slowdown indicated!

You're welcome, Matt.


Very, very nice math, there.
Thank you!

thats why coldfront is our site stats guru...makes sure there is no misunderstanding on the numbers
0 likes   

Guest

#2604 Postby Guest » Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:27 pm

Ok, uhhh, NO!, if the ridge was very weak he wouldn't slow down, maintain status or move a lil faster, as we saw with Charley, and furthermore he would turn sooner, if the ridge was weaker.
0 likes   

User avatar
debbiet
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 105
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2003 5:23 pm
Location: Gloucester, Virginia

#2605 Postby debbiet » Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:28 pm

They can prepare AND pray...the two aren't mutually exclusive. :wink:
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38107
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#2606 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:29 pm

brudeb wrote:I am just learning about all this. What does that mean? :?:


Satellite estimates of intensity. 6.5 is a strong 4 and 7.0 is a Cat 5. :eek:
0 likes   
#neversummer

Derek Ortt

#2607 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:29 pm

you can find them just by doing a google search regarding cyclone tracy
0 likes   

Guest

#2608 Postby Guest » Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:29 pm

I agree hurricane make drunks out of the best of us.
0 likes   

TyphoonTim
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 34
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2004 9:59 am
Location: Atlanta, GA

#2609 Postby TyphoonTim » Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:30 pm

On the WV loop, the high pressure system appears to be building further south and west, now bordering the Bahamas. In the last frames of the loop, the northern outflow of Ivan appears to increase greatly. Don't know what to make of these two event sand how they may or may not be related. But it seems to me that the HP would block any northerly progress of Ivan. Still scratching my head with this system.
0 likes   

WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

#2610 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:30 pm

Frederic1979 wrote:Ok, uhhh, NO!, if the ridge was very weak he wouldn't slow down, maintain status or move a lil faster, as we saw with Charley, and furthermore he would turn sooner, if the ridge was weaker.


Fredrick, I think what he was trying to say is that if a tropical system slows down it is usually a sign that the ridge is weakening or that it is reaching the end of the ridge. Ivan appears to be slowing down so either of the aforementioned cases could be happening right now.

<RICKY>
0 likes   

sprink52
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 212
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 1:25 pm
Location: Royal Palm Beach, Fl

#2611 Postby sprink52 » Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:31 pm

I hope the ridge wins
0 likes   

brudeb
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 19
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:56 pm
Location: Palm Coast, FL

#2612 Postby brudeb » Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:32 pm

Thank you. I am still slowly learning what all this means. It fascinates me, but I feel for everyone going thru it. I got hit by Charley and Frances, (not to bad) instead of scaring me it fascinated me more. Don't think I want Ivan this way though. Always have loved storms.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146005
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#2613 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:32 pm

brudeb wrote:I am just learning about all this. What does that mean? :?:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

At the link above you will see a chart that indicates the sattelite estimates of the winds in a system.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

sprink52
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 212
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 1:25 pm
Location: Royal Palm Beach, Fl

#2614 Postby sprink52 » Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:34 pm

Ivan is a scary storm
0 likes   

TyphoonTim
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 34
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2004 9:59 am
Location: Atlanta, GA

#2615 Postby TyphoonTim » Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:34 pm

I think I noticed a slight turn more west in the last frame of the WV loop. Could just be a wobble or my tired eyes from looking at the computer for the past 14 hours!
0 likes   

ExtinctionEvent

#2616 Postby ExtinctionEvent » Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:35 pm

Well when a category 5 hurricane come to your area, i really don't know how much preparation....if any, you can do that will help. The only solution i could come up with is, that you find somewhere out of harms way, and pray. I could only imagine the helpless feeling those people have tonight. Their lives will never be the same after this hurricane.
0 likes   

brudeb
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 19
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:56 pm
Location: Palm Coast, FL

#2617 Postby brudeb » Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:36 pm

I totally agree with you Sprink, I just want to watch Ivan from far, far away. I don't want him on the east coast of florida.
0 likes   

PurdueWx80
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2720
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:33 pm
Location: Madison, WI
Contact:

#2618 Postby PurdueWx80 » Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:37 pm

There was one wobble west at the last frame...if it continues a general WNW motion w/ a few westerly wobbles...it has a chance of not making a direct hit on Jamaica. We are still too far away to know this now though...as it will likely be another 18-24 hours before final approach. Also, the outflow is superb right now...it is about to make a connection with a jet moving along the southern periphery of the ULL over the Atlantic. When that happens...there could be some major increase in overall convection and size of the storm.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurrilurker
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 723
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 3:32 pm
Location: San Francisco, CA

#2619 Postby Hurrilurker » Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:39 pm

Don't look now but in the last few IR frames it looks like that large intense convection around the core (ie. solid red blob) is trying to come back. It's not wrapped or symmetrical yet but it is expanding, which would be very very bad timing for Jamaica. I also think we're going to see some deaths in Haiti from this. They are going to get some wind and rain, which will most likely trigger mudslides there and unfortunately, potentially many deaths.
0 likes   

User avatar
tronbunny
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1558
Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2004 1:18 am
Location: Central FL

#2620 Postby tronbunny » Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:40 pm

debbiet wrote:They can prepare AND pray...the two aren't mutually exclusive. :wink:

I'm pretty sure that's what worked for us here during Frances...
I got calls from around the world telling me of prayers for us.
How else do you explain that weakening?
;-)
0 likes   


Return to “2004”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests