
Ivan Advisories
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- Tropical Low
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On the WV loop, the high pressure system appears to be building further south and west, now bordering the Bahamas. In the last frames of the loop, the northern outflow of Ivan appears to increase greatly. Don't know what to make of these two event sand how they may or may not be related. But it seems to me that the HP would block any northerly progress of Ivan. Still scratching my head with this system.
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- S2K Supporter
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Frederic1979 wrote:Ok, uhhh, NO!, if the ridge was very weak he wouldn't slow down, maintain status or move a lil faster, as we saw with Charley, and furthermore he would turn sooner, if the ridge was weaker.
Fredrick, I think what he was trying to say is that if a tropical system slows down it is usually a sign that the ridge is weakening or that it is reaching the end of the ridge. Ivan appears to be slowing down so either of the aforementioned cases could be happening right now.
<RICKY>
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- cycloneye
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brudeb wrote:I am just learning about all this. What does that mean?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html
At the link above you will see a chart that indicates the sattelite estimates of the winds in a system.
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- Tropical Low
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Well when a category 5 hurricane come to your area, i really don't know how much preparation....if any, you can do that will help. The only solution i could come up with is, that you find somewhere out of harms way, and pray. I could only imagine the helpless feeling those people have tonight. Their lives will never be the same after this hurricane.
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- Professional-Met
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There was one wobble west at the last frame...if it continues a general WNW motion w/ a few westerly wobbles...it has a chance of not making a direct hit on Jamaica. We are still too far away to know this now though...as it will likely be another 18-24 hours before final approach. Also, the outflow is superb right now...it is about to make a connection with a jet moving along the southern periphery of the ULL over the Atlantic. When that happens...there could be some major increase in overall convection and size of the storm.
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- Hurrilurker
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Don't look now but in the last few IR frames it looks like that large intense convection around the core (ie. solid red blob) is trying to come back. It's not wrapped or symmetrical yet but it is expanding, which would be very very bad timing for Jamaica. I also think we're going to see some deaths in Haiti from this. They are going to get some wind and rain, which will most likely trigger mudslides there and unfortunately, potentially many deaths.
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