Ivan Advisories

[TyphoonTim]

There was one wobble west at the last frame...if it continues a general WNW motion w/ a few westerly wobbles...it has a chance of not making a direct hit on Jamaica. We are still too far away to know this now though...as it will likely be another 18-24 hours before final approach. Also, the outflow is superb right now...it is about to make a connection with a jet moving along the southern periphery of the ULL over the Atlantic. When that happens...there could be some major increase in overall convection and size of the storm.

I noticed the huge increase in outflow too. Quite impressive, but scary.

Nice to see a Purdue influence here (I'm a '92 engineering grad).

[cycloneye]

http://weather.net-waves.com/td09.php

Some go more east and others models go more west but the Penninsula looks like the target.

[hurricanedude]

hell.....why not!!!

[Guest]

I dont like lbar bunker down.

[marc21688]

Do you think the NHC will shift the projected path to the east a little?

[brudeb]

What does this mean? That I am SOL? I live on the NE coast 30 miles north of Daytona. Do I really need to worry? The winds should be alot lower by them shouldn't they?

[chris_fit]

yes

[WeatherEmperor]

I dont like lbar bunker down.

lol I dont like any of the models. Hell even the A98 is making a FL landfall.

<RICKY>

[Brent]

What does this mean? That I am SOL? I live on the NE coast 30 miles north of Daytona. Do I really need to worry? The winds should be alot lower by them shouldn't they?

It means Florida will get slammed.

GFDL would be worst for you with you in the eyewall. It would be weaker, but if it comes in strong enough, it'll still be a hurricane when it gets over there.

[calidoug]

Frederick, a weak ridge does in fact lead to slowing speeds, and a strong ridge to fast speeds, as the storm moves along the edge of it.

The Frances situation was very unusual, the storm was actually sort of enveloped in a U-shaped ridge around it, which did lead to a stall.

But that is not common, nor the situation we have here.

[Bane]

Let's hope this misses landfall around the Port Charlotte area if it's going to hit Florida.

[calidoug]

I actually think a more WNW direction right now is WORSE for Jamaica. In my opinion, it is NOT going to miss south. It might miss just to the north.

True NW motion now would be the best thing for Jamaica.

[dhweather]

The thing that concerns me most is when and where will that eventual turn take place?

<RICKY>

Therein lies our dilemna for Ivan.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I was leaning towards Tampa area, but, as more time passes, I'm actually thinking more of a Pensacola-Panama City landfall. I think that most of the peninsula of Florida will have to contend with heavy rain and winds, but, not a direct hit. This is just my opinion, though, but, it looks like the trough in the Gulf is receeding nicely and will give Ivan a little more play room in the Gulf.

[sea oat]

I actually think a more WNW direction right now is WORSE for Jamaica. In my opinion, it is NOT going to miss south. It might miss just to the north.

True NW motion now would be the best thing for Jamaica.

Whew, I thought I was hallucinating! I agree Calidoug. Could this thing possibly go between Jamaica and Haiti and then hit Cuba? Sorry for the newbiness of this question

[Sean in New Orleans]

...the exhaust on this system has been remarkable ever since this system was over the Atlantic. This is just a perfect set-up with the high over the system so nicely....It also appears that Ivan is beginning to wrap around again, and could be strengthening for most of the night this evening. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[dhweather]

The tops do appear to be cooling again, and a little wobble left on the last frame.

[Derek Ortt]

this is a significant threat to the Florida Keys after doing a number of Jamaica and possibly Havana

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004forecast.html

graphics will follow within the next 3-5 minutes

[LowMug]

Frederick, a weak ridge does in fact lead to slowing speeds, and a strong ridge to fast speeds, as the storm moves along the edge of it.

The Frances situation was very unusual, the storm was actually sort of enveloped in a U-shaped ridge around it, which did lead to a stall.

But that is not common, nor the situation we have here.

Broke it down very nicely...

Actually it is very common...especially with systems approaching or in the GOM when fronts are not rolling through or strong high pressure isn't present...that is why those of us on the Gulf always say ... "Once it gets in the Gulf who knows where it is going"...the most recent extreme example of these lack of steering currets is Isidore...





http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2002H/ISIDORE/track.gif

[AL Chili Pepper]

From the looks of the WV loop, I don't see how the ridge can build to the west for much longer. It might be enough to save Miami though...if it holds.