#2710 Postby Matthew5 » Thu Sep 09, 2004 10:10 pm
Forecast On Hurricane Ivan...
8pm pst/11pm est
9-9-2004
Ivan is going through a eye wall replacement cycle. In it weakens slightly.
Whats going on is that this storm built up so fast that now it is having a eye wall replacement cycle. Which is very normal for strong tropical cyclones like Ivan,Mitch,Isabel,Lili,Camille,Floyd,Andrew or any other powrful tropical cyclone. The recon data also shown a drop an the over all winds because of this. From near 180 mph this morning(Which supported the cat5 upgrade) to 148 mph tonight. You can also look at 85z satelitte data at Nrl to see that the new larger eye has formed.
What is happening is the small eye was compacted. In so it had very strong winds with in a really close area(35 miles or less hurricane force with maybe 10 miles of the worsted)All together Ivan was alot like Charley, but had a larger wind field then Charley. With a very tight pressure grad. Which forces for stronger winds. But now a new eye(Much larger has formed)...Which on top of this in the systems its still is holding a pressure of "924 millibars"(Andrew had 921-922 millibars) from even with the small eye had a pressure bottom out of 919 millibars. When this new larger eye tightens up later tonight. Which the system is starting to show some signs of it as we speak. What signs? The signs are the outflow is growing with the tropical cyclone over the last 6 hours. Also the cdo has grown in size. Which means that the upper level Enviroement around the system is very favable. With more deeper reds forming near the tropical cycones center. My thinking is for this to tighten to maybe 165 possibly even 175 mph tropical cyclone by tomarrow afternoon..
Another interesting fact is a report of winds over 300 feet up as high as 210 mph out of recon. That was reported this morning.
The over all seasurface temperatures, appear to only get warmer as this tropical cyclone moves west-northwestward to northwestward through out the next 24 to 36 hours. So this thing could very well become a cat5 again before making landfall on Jamaica. The hurricane models are in very good agreement taking this system through the island of Jamaica Friday morning into the Afternoon. One little fact about Jamaica is it has mountains of over 5 to 6 thousand feet. So if the cyclone moves over it the core will likely be some what distroyed. Histroy has shown that once that happens the hurricane never really comes back all the way. But on the other hand the waters should be the warmest in the whole Atlantic basin on the other side.
As for the track of this tropical cyclone, the hurricane models at 00z tonight have shifted back to the east. They stay in very good agreement intill landfall on the Island of Jamaica late Friday morning into the Afternoon. Then they go into fair agreement at a landfall from where Charley made landfall to going through the keys. The Ecmwf has shown run after runs taking this system across southern Florida. So that model must not be discounted at this moment. While the Gfdl at 00z makes another Charley landfall track into Florida. One thing to note is now the Ukmet and the Canada(Cmc)Are taking this system much farther to the west. My forecast track go's across western Cuba. In between the Lbar(Which has been noted to be a good model at times) In the 2328z/00z Gfdl down the middle. In I make landfall in southern or central Florida mid day Monday around 26.5 north/82.0 to 82.5 west.
What has to happen is the ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone has to brake down. As the upper low over the Central Atlantic moves "southwestward" This forecast will likely be way off by over 300 nmi in the 5 day time frame.
After it gets into the Gulf of Mexico this storm should then have about 18 hours to reoreganize. I expect this storm not to be any higher then a strong cat3 maybe a lower end cat4 hurricane. In that might even be high? Why because once a powerful system like this like talked about earlier in this discussion go's over land it is hard to build to its old self again. So landfall Monday mid day as a 120 mph cat3 hurricane...
Wind forecast
0...150 mph(8pm pst/11pm est)
6...155 mph(2am pst/5am est)
12..165 mph(Cat5)(8am pst/11am est)
18..135 mph(Over Jamaica)2pm pst/5pm est)
24..120 mph(Entering back over water)(8pm pst/11pm est)
36..130 mph(2am pst/5am est)
48..135 mph(8am pst/11am est)
72..120 mph(Making landfall in Cuba)
96..125 mph(Closing in on south-central Florida)(Monday afternoon after 2pm?)
120..80 mph(Inland)...
Forecaster Matthew...
This is not Offial please visit the Nhc...Or for a little less offical go to Nwhhc...
Last edited by Matthew5 on Thu Sep 09, 2004 10:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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