Good News

[Guest]

Looks like Ivan will miss Jamaica to the south, just squeeking by, however, this will place Jamaica in the worst part of the storm.

Just watch the movement in the Floater 1 loops.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[calidoug]

That post is nutty.

It is not possible to know at this point, because tiny variations in direction amount to a direct hit vs. a near miss.

What's even more bizarre is that in this case, the linear extrapolation currently shown by the floater shows a DIRECT HIT.

So, the post is doubly wrong!

[btsgmdad]

How can you call that good news?!!! Jamaica will be totally and utterly devastated. The only other types of destruction that could be worse would be nuclear or volcanic. North of the island would have been so much better for them.

[mobilebay]

If you just stay south of the NHC forecast your right on . Good post...

[yoda]

But the last frame was a jog North...

[mobilebay]

But the last frame was a jog North...

This hitting Jamaica is assuming that IVan makes a more northwest turn. This is something that the models have been assuming for two days. However it is still trucking along WNW.

[Sanibel]

In my estimation the current movement will result in the direct hit of an intensifying category 5 event.

The extrapolated motion from this position should result in a bisecting of Jamaica by a storm fully involved in maximum potential intensity phasing.

Tomorrow we will witness a hurricane that will be known by name for many years. I hope the people of Jamaica are seeking stone shelter...

[B-Bear]

I was listening to them on the radio. They don't seem to be too worried right now. Of course, Jamaican's are known for being among the most laid back people on the planet. Perhaps that will be their downfall this time?

[Stormcenter]

That post is nutty.

It is not possible to know at this point, because tiny variations in direction amount to a direct hit vs. a near miss.

What's even more bizarre is that in this case, the linear extrapolation currently shown by the floater shows a DIRECT HIT.

So, the post is doubly wrong!

It is no nuttier than all of posts stating Ivan is going hit here or there in Florida for sure. Even though Ivan is hundreds of miles from US mainland and not "currently" moving in the direction of Florida. At least right now we know Ivan is headed toward Jamaica and the possibility is there for him to pass south.

[frankthetank]

THey might as well not panic...they live on an island...not to many placees to hide...

i was checking out the topography and it looks like its quite mountainious with one peak over 7000FT... I wonder what the winds will be like up there?

[LowMug]

THey might as well not panic...they live on an island...not to many placees to hide...

i was checking out the topography and it looks like its quite mountainious with one peak over 7000FT... I wonder what the winds will be like up there?

hold on I will tell you...woah woah woah...splash

I am hoping our island neighbors come thru this well...I am certain they prepare better then we in the states do...

not too many Jamaicans on here freaking out on here about every wobble like we do...$hit was that another wobble...quick post a post before someone else posts a post about the post I was just getting ready to post