If you lived in Tampa, would you leave?

[ACM]

I am going to stay - I think. I'm in St Pete, a non-evac zone; don't know my elevation but there is a sign 3 blocks from me that states 'highest elevation' or something like that. Concrete blocks, 30 years old, only downside is I'm surrounded by 4 massive oak trees. I have a safe interior hallway I plan on camping out in if need be. I hope I am making the right decision.

[gatorbabe79]

Just be prepared to share your space with others seeking high ground. Like ants, snakes and such. Put moth balls around entrances, snakes hate the napthalene in them!! Be well and safe.......

[Anonymous]

If I lived in Tampa, I would board up my home and leave. I'd head upstate and probably drive into central Georgia and check into a hotel and stay there for a week or two.

if any of you are thinking of heading into Georgia/North Carolina/SouthCarolina, please stay clear of the mountains, there has been a lot of flooding from Frances. When Ivan gets through with Tampa, he'll move on up the southeastern states into and up the Mid Atlantic on into the Northeast and on into Atlantic Canada.

I can't begin to imaging the flooding that will take place in the southeast and up the East Coast states with this thing. What Frances did to the Mid Atlantic with insane amounts of rain and all those tornadoes - I don't even want to think about what this Ivan will wreak!!!

Just pack up, board up and get out. Go to central Georgia and check into a hotel and sit tight for a week. If this storm is a Category 5 it'll tear up the infrastructure - No gas, electricity, refrigeration, looters, snakes and ants and gators everywhere, potable water will be very hard to find - and miserable excuses for people will be selling you utter necessities for brutally extravagant prices.

Trust me, it's nothing short of HELL during and after a major hurricane!! Ivan is a Category 4 or 5. You don't want to be there when it happens.

Please get out while you still can.

[Sean in New Orleans]

With a category 5 approaching?--you better believe I would leave and I would insist that my loved ones go, as well. I love my life too much to put it in that much risk. I'm no dummy---and my doggie would be with me the whole way. There is no way in the world I would stay.

[crazycajuncane]

Let's just say that this track holds..... Friday, Saturday and Sunday.....

Wouldn't it be wiser to go west outta Flordia, than to go to the Carolinas?

If this thing does in fact hit Tampa and ride up the EAST coast.... it looks like another flooding event.

[Guest]

Overall, no. See Possom Trot's post above...

[Dmetal81]

Just be prepared to share your space with others seeking high ground. Like ants, snakes and such. Put moth balls around entrances, snakes hate the napthalene in them!! Be well and safe.......

Agreed Gatorbabe, during frances we had two houseguests from next door when their roof started to come off about 8 hours in. Later on in the evening we had a bunch more univited "guests" in the form of rats seeking higher ground. Woke up at 4:30 am to my sister's dog running around the house madly after a 5lb rat. Ick.

[wlfpack81]

For arguments sake if the 11pm NHC track verifies I wouldn't want to be anywhere near the coast in Tampa. The area would definitely see strong hurricane force winds as the storm moves just to the west. Additionally as the storm appraoches from the south water in the eastern part of the bay would be pushed along the w-ern bay coast (if that makes sine). Then as the storm moves n of Tampa w-ly to sw-ly winds will push water up into the bay creating a nasty flooding problem. For those of you 1.5 miles from the coast/bay etc. I honestly wouldn't stay if this thing makes a direct hit on you or brushes the coast. Yea looting is bad but ya know looting to your house won't mean crap if you're dead which will honestly most likely be the case if this storm directly hit Tampa or took the 11pm NHC track (assuming you lived right along the coast or near the bay where you'd be affected by flooding, not to mention 115kt+ winds are no fun to deal with).

[Sean in New Orleans]

Come to New Orleans, relax, be safe, and watch coverage from here. Quite a few hotels offered deep discounts for those evacuating from Frances here, and I'm sure it will be the same for Ivan.

[crazycajuncane]

Come to New Orleans, relax, be safe, and watch coverage from here. Quite a few hotels offered deep discounts for those evacuating from Frances here, and I'm sure it will be the same for Ivan.

And if you want.... Lafayette is a great place to eat some awesome Cajun food. I know some hotels run from $39.99 a night.

If you Floridians never been to Louisiana.... now is the time (considering the track does not jolt left)

Otherwise we'll be the ones looking for a place to go.

[Possum Trot]

Here is a quicktime presentation demonstrating storm surge effects on Tampa Bay given a CAT4 moving NE and making landfall at Tarpon. I've seen other demos that turned St. Pete into an island due to funnel effect of the Bay.

http://tinyurl.com/4ptdd

OR

http://www.sptimes.com/2002/webspecials02/
andrew/1921video.shtml

***

From the Coast Gaurd:

STORM SURGE - This is the most dangerous and destructive of all tropical storm phenomena. A storm surge is a rapid rise is the water level above normal tide level due to the effects of strong winds and low barometric pressure at the water surface. For example, the storm surge in a recent Category (5) hurricane immediately east of the eye was 20 to 25 feet in height and traveled 7 to 10 miles inland. Whenever a large number of fatalities occur in a hurricane, the cause is usually drowning resulting from a large storm surge. In response to the push of hurricane winds, a 15 to 20-foot surge can be realized in less than one hour. While this is the extreme, storm surges are very dangerous, hard to predict and their formation is very rapid.

Due to the irregular contour and shallow bottom of the Florida West Coast, the storm surge will vary throughout Group St. Petersburg's AOR. Storm surge is expected to be enhanced by the basic funnel shape of Tampa Bay and differences of up to 3 feet can be expected.

SCALE WIND (mph) SURGE
Category 1 74 to 95 4 feet
Category 2 96 to 110 6 feet
Category 3 111 to 130 12 feet
Category 4 131 to 155 14 feet
Category 5 156 & above 16+ feet

http://www.uscg.mil/d7/units/grustpete/ops_comms.htm