Ivan Advisories

[mobilebay]

Now we wait for the new Euro and GFS....

The 00Z gfs has already run. It has a very simular track to the ukmet.

[ilmc172pilot]

ok....from these models...all but 2 are if close agreement, could this nasty beast cross florida and slam the carolinas?........not looking good from what I can see

[mobilebay]

I guess you all seen from another post that the UKMET has now blew east with the rest of the bunch.

Yes. In good agreement with the GFS and GFDL. However, the UKMEt has been flip-flopping here lately.

[southerngale]

The Bermuda High that was to keep Ivan more wnw over this period has been retrograding slowly over time, due to the low wraping around its southeastern periphery, disrupting the westerly steering currents above, and ahead of Ivan.
-Eric

I just read another thread where they said it was stronger than the models predicted and building. Geez, it can't be both.

[rtd2]

I noticed TWC cone was almost west to LA. and Mets keep saying how past 48 hours is not accurate at this time! TRUE TWC is a private WX forcaster co, but unlike local Mets and stations TWC is seen worldwide so they should go with NHC package (like they normally do!) or explain there reason and Put up some type of disclaimer... I thInk its fine for them to disagree with NHC ...I certainly have on several storms ...including IVAN!

[calidoug]

JoeB has a way of redefining his predictions as conditions change so that he can claim he was right all along, no matter what happens.

Same thing in the winter. He's always predicting -50 temps and massive blizzards that fail to materialize 90% of the time. I read his column for quite a time, mostly for amusement.

[mobilebay]

Also of interest. The GFS has been moving more west with every run now for about the last five runs. The GFDL seems to have settled down though. The UKMET, is west one time and East the next.

[rtd2]

JOEB or no joeb I posted this west stuff early this morning! maybe Joe got ahold of my notes!

[ericinmia]

It has obviously weakend... the past few steering current maps show it well...
The WV loop shows it..
The Scat wind reports show it...
THE NHC says it is going to do it... albeit in 24-36 hours...

-Eric

[calidoug]

Doesn't the 0Z GFDL run off the 18Z GFS?

[mobilebay]

Doesn't the 0Z GFDL run off the 18Z GFS?

Good Question. I have no idea. I think the NHC will go with this (GFDL0 scenerio at 5AM, but will be short lived.

[calidoug]

Wow, you're right about the 0Z GFS.

Just right of the UKMet across FL. Worse for Miami, but not quite a direct hit (just to the west).

It also SLAMS Jamaica-- the whole length of it.

[southerngale]

It may be obvious to you, but I'm still learning how to read this stuff so I rely more on what others say.
Then I go look at it and try to figure out what the heck they're talking about. It didn't look like it was weakening yet to me, but hey, what do I know?

[WeatherNLU]

Pressure up, winds down a tad. Anything to help Jamaica at this point!

[bahamaswx]

A shame it's likely going to be short-lived.

[calidoug]

Must be due to the EWRC....this actually may be bad timing... it has about 24 hours before hitting Jamaica.

[crazycajuncane]

13 mph ..... is that slower from earlier?

I know it was at like 17, 15, but now 13 mph?

Thats not a good sign.

How many hours away from Jamacia does that put it??

[Praxus]

Hurricane Ivan Intermediate Advisory Number 31a

Statement as of 2:00 am AST on September 10, 2004

...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan moving west-northwestward
toward Jamaica...


a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands.


A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for
the entire southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the
Dominican Republic westward...including Port au Prince.


A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for the
Dominican Republic from Barahona to perdenales. A tropical storm
watch remains in effect for the southwestern coast of the Dominican
Republic from palenque westward to Barahona.


A Hurricane Watch is in effect for central and eastern Cuba from
Matanzas eastward. Tropical storm warnings may be required for
portions of southeastern Cuba Friday morning.


Interests in central and western Caribbean Sea should closely
monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.


At 2 am AST...0600z...the center of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 15.7 north...longitude 73.8 west or about 250 miles...
405 km...southeast of Kingston Jamaica.


Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph...20 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours. On this track the hurricane will be nearing Jamaica tonight.


Maximum sustained winds have decreased a little to near 145
mph...230 km/hr...with higher gusts. Ivan is an extremely
dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane
scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next
24 hours...and Ivan could regain category 5 status as it approaches
Jamaica.


Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles... 85 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 175 miles...280 km.


The latest estimated minimum central pressure recently measured by
reconnaissance aircraft is 930 mb...27.47 inches.


Storm surge flooding of 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the center of Ivan in the Hurricane Warning area.


Rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the
path of Ivan.


Repeating the 2 am AST position...15.7 N... 73.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...145 mph. Minimum central pressure... 930 mb.


For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office. In the United
States...hurricane local statements are being issued by the weather
forecast office in Key West regarding evacuations currently in
progress.


The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 am AST.


Forecaster Lawrence

[WeatherNLU]

Well, I don't know. The presentation has seemed to continue to get better, but the pressure is up and the winds came down to 150 and now 145.

I know ERC is the likely culprit, but I am hanging on to anything for the people of Jamaica.

[calidoug]

Hurricane force wind field radius is up to 50 miles...