Ivan Advisories

[Cookiely]

Channel 10 and 13. Shapiro said enjoy the weekend and prepare. He is joking and seems in denial, "well lets hope it goes somewhere else."

[otowntiger]

Another thing to consider in this slowing down process is if he does in fact cross directly over Jamaica with all its mountains going pretty slowly he will have a chance to be weakened quite a bit, right? Maybe down from 150 to about 120mph?

[CourierPR]

The latest satellite loop appears to show a more northerly component. Does anyone else see this?

[MWatkins]

This isn't the first time this paticular forecaster has missed recon data.

MW

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

yea i was looking @ this too:
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

YUCK!

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

not sure...but I know we had one recently, been so many, that had a west side worst than the east side! Now that is weird!

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

[Innotech]

jamaica....damn

[otowntiger]

Looking at the latest IR satellite loop he looks to be much weaker than just a few hours ago. Recon will tell the story, but looks to me like 145 is being VERY generous right now. Plus you can't ignore the steady increase in the pressure. He's climbed 10 mb since yesterday.

[btsgmdad]

There sure is a lot more dry air in the WV loop this morning that the past couple of days.

[Aquawind]

Good Points...Still recovering from replacement last night I would guess..hopefully Ivan never does recover..

[Thunder44]

Sat pics can be decieving. Last vortex message shows winds are increasing. Look at my other post for New Vortex.

[LCfromFL]

It's worse when you add the movement of the storm to the actual winds themselves (then you can add the whole storm surge thing to it as well - these storms push a bunch of water ahead). The "right front quadrant" is defined by the movement of the storm - so you take a northern hemisphere storm, with winds rotating counter clockwise and add directional movement and you find the 'right front quadrant'. Let's use a silly example - a counter clockwise storm heading due south - or even southeast - would have a 'right front quadrant' in the BOTTOM LEFT (if you looked at it on a map - with N pointing up).

[Stormcenter]

yea i was looking @ this too:
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

YUCK!

That actually would be good be Florida in the long run.

[jlauderdal]

yea i was looking @ this too:
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

YUCK!

That actually would be good be Florida in the long run.

whyw so it can run up the gut of the state instead having less effect with a west coast landfall.

[StrongWind]

Sat pics can be decieving. Last vortex message shows winds are increasing. Look at my other post for New Vortex.

Perhaps, but the latest pictures look like the west side is being sheared.

[Thunder44]

Probably just a wobble.

[ColinD]

The eye has been cooling the past 3 hours. That vortex was from 2 hours ago. Maybe it strengthened a bit and is now starting to weaken a little.

[Thunder44]

Yes, I just got a new vortex. Pressure is up 934mb but flight level winds still support it's 145mph at the surface.

URNT12 KNHC 101023
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/1023Z
B. 16 DEG 10 MIN N
74 DEG 29 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2510 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 130 DEG 141 KT
G. 041 DEG 11 NM
H. 934 MB
I. 8 C/ 3136 M
J. 18 C/ 3119 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C20
N. 12345/7
O. .1 /1 NM
P. AF866 1309A IVAN OB 24
MAX FL WIND 141 KT NE QUAD 1020Z.

[Three Blind Mice]

sure appears Ivan is going to follow Charley up the coast. Looking at the latest info, it appears Ivan will move offshore more than Charley once he's cleared FL. Very concerned about Ivan catching the gulf stream express!

Folks in FL, how you can deal with this stress and exist is a miracle. Having been through many canes I can't imagine the last 30 days for you. Stay safe....