Ivan Advisories
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- TheWriteIdea
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 14
- Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:58 pm
- Location: Hendersonville NC
5 am Discussion & FSU Superensemble...
Hey all. I'm in St. Petersburg and have been lurking here since Francis began its approach to Florida. What a fantastic site...I am learning so much! Thanks to all of the met professionals and weather enthusiasts who take the time to share their knowledge.
I read in an article (following a link from this site) that the FSU superensemble is ALWAYS number one or number two. In other words, if the superensemble says it's going *there,* we can almost bank on it.
Then I read this in the 5 am discussion:
THERE IS SOME SPREAD TO THE MODELS AFTER 48 HOURS.
THE GFS...UKMET...AND GFDL ALL SHOW A TRACK OVER JAMAICA...THEN
WESTERN CUBA AND THEN FLORIDA. THE NOGAPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
ARE FURTHER WEST AND ALSO SHOW A TRACK NEAR JAMAICA AND THEN OVER
WESTERN CUBA...BUT THEN MOVE IVAN OVER THE GULF TO THE WEST OF
FLORIDA.
So what do you all think? Even though the track seems to be trending to the east of the cone, is it possible that we should be looking west? I know it's too early to tell for sure...just looking for input/insight.
Thanks again...
Renae Gregoire
St. Pete, Florida
I read in an article (following a link from this site) that the FSU superensemble is ALWAYS number one or number two. In other words, if the superensemble says it's going *there,* we can almost bank on it.
Then I read this in the 5 am discussion:
THERE IS SOME SPREAD TO THE MODELS AFTER 48 HOURS.
THE GFS...UKMET...AND GFDL ALL SHOW A TRACK OVER JAMAICA...THEN
WESTERN CUBA AND THEN FLORIDA. THE NOGAPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
ARE FURTHER WEST AND ALSO SHOW A TRACK NEAR JAMAICA AND THEN OVER
WESTERN CUBA...BUT THEN MOVE IVAN OVER THE GULF TO THE WEST OF
FLORIDA.
So what do you all think? Even though the track seems to be trending to the east of the cone, is it possible that we should be looking west? I know it's too early to tell for sure...just looking for input/insight.
Thanks again...
Renae Gregoire
St. Pete, Florida
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- cycloneye
- Admin
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
12:00 Tropical Models=Cross from SW Florida into Atlantic
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- Travelgirl
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Re: To Tampa Possibly As Cat 5
canegrl04 wrote:Al Roaker on NBC Today show said that Ivan is expected to strengthen after Cuba and could be cat 5 when he makes landfall around Tampa
great....now we have al roker putting in his two cents. s2k opinions and expertise look better and better everyday.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
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Maybe a little east shift.IF this comes true then Miami would be at the strongest quadrant but all of this is too far away in time that you will see more changes from the models in next runs.
Last edited by cycloneye on Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
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chadtm80 wrote:arrgg.. Sorry guys still early.. lol I meant East
whooa...i have seen your posts in the past and was surprised to see you say west. yes they will move to the east a bit. the euro is rather disturbing if you ask me and couple that with the NHC admittance of low confidence and ortt mentioning the ridge weaking and i smell something brewing here today.
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- PerfectStorm
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 85
- Joined: Tue Sep 09, 2003 4:39 pm
Concerned IVAN is about to bomb out...(i.e. GROW not Weaken)
There seems to be a lot of discussion about the current ERC that is occurring. This is only temporary fluctuation, no matter how 'ragged' the storm may appear. My guess is that we will see Ivan rapidly intensify later on today. Max Mayfield was even quoted a few minutes ago on TV stating that nothing stands in Ivan's way regarding intensification, flucuations normal. I expect we will see a very deep eyewall after the cycle completes similar to Frances when in the southeastern Caribbean. There is a tremendous amount of convection on all sides of Ivan its just a matter of time and consolidation. imho.... Naples to Tampa GET PREPARED now! Noticed this morning in S Tampa several gas stations are low or out of gas already. Grocery stores are not in full stock mode yet.
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- Three Blind Mice
- Tropical Storm
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- Jevo
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Re: To Tampa Possibly As Cat 5
canegrl04 wrote:Al Roaker on NBC Today show said that Ivan is expected to strengthen after Cuba and could be cat 5 when he makes landfall around Tampa
Wait.... Al Roker is an actual Met????
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- weatherwoman
- Category 1
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- paradoxsixnine
- Tropical Storm
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- Category 5
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Just like Frances he is weakening far no apparent reason, fortunately and just in time! I see a weak cat 3 hitting the Jamaica and a weaker cat 2 in the Gulf by Monday. I could be wrong but I think this is a trend and not just fluctuation. He could still do a lot of damage, but much, much less than if he'd stayed as strong as he was yesterday morning.
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