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TheWriteIdea
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5 am Discussion & FSU Superensemble...

#3001 Postby TheWriteIdea » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:38 am

Hey all. I'm in St. Petersburg and have been lurking here since Francis began its approach to Florida. What a fantastic site...I am learning so much! Thanks to all of the met professionals and weather enthusiasts who take the time to share their knowledge.

I read in an article (following a link from this site) that the FSU superensemble is ALWAYS number one or number two. In other words, if the superensemble says it's going *there,* we can almost bank on it.

Then I read this in the 5 am discussion:

THERE IS SOME SPREAD TO THE MODELS AFTER 48 HOURS.
THE GFS...UKMET...AND GFDL ALL SHOW A TRACK OVER JAMAICA...THEN
WESTERN CUBA AND THEN FLORIDA. THE NOGAPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
ARE FURTHER WEST AND ALSO SHOW A TRACK NEAR JAMAICA AND THEN OVER
WESTERN CUBA...BUT THEN MOVE IVAN OVER THE GULF TO THE WEST OF
FLORIDA.


So what do you all think? Even though the track seems to be trending to the east of the cone, is it possible that we should be looking west? I know it's too early to tell for sure...just looking for input/insight.

Thanks again...

Renae Gregoire
St. Pete, Florida
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Cookiely
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#3002 Postby Cookiely » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:39 am

What makes a hurricane expand?
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12:00 Tropical Models=Cross from SW Florida into Atlantic

#3003 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:39 am

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#3004 Postby B-Bear » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:40 am

He is, by the way, still showing pretty impressive convection. He'll get it together again.
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chadtm80

#3005 Postby chadtm80 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:41 am

NHC going to shift back West at 11??
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#3006 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:43 am

chadtm80 wrote:NHC going to shift back West at 11??


I doubt it. Almost all of the models are east of their current track.
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#3007 Postby Travelgirl » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:43 am

Why do think NHC will shift back to west at 11:00?
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Re: To Tampa Possibly As Cat 5

#3008 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:43 am

canegrl04 wrote:Al Roaker on NBC Today show said that Ivan is expected to strengthen after Cuba and could be cat 5 when he makes landfall around Tampa


great....now we have al roker putting in his two cents. s2k opinions and expertise look better and better everyday.
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#3009 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:44 am

Windsong wrote:Al has a degree in communications. He is NOT a degreed Met.


he sure can handle himself around the grill on the food network show he has.
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#3010 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:45 am

Maybe a little east shift.IF this comes true then Miami would be at the strongest quadrant but all of this is too far away in time that you will see more changes from the models in next runs.
Last edited by cycloneye on Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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chadtm80

#3011 Postby chadtm80 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:45 am

arrgg.. Sorry guys still early.. lol I meant East
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das8929

#3012 Postby das8929 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:46 am

I think it should be shifted east if anything, definitely not west.
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chadtm80

#3013 Postby chadtm80 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:47 am

chadtm80 wrote:arrgg.. Sorry guys still early.. lol I meant East
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#3014 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:47 am

chadtm80 wrote:arrgg.. Sorry guys still early.. lol I meant East


whooa...i have seen your posts in the past and was surprised to see you say west. yes they will move to the east a bit. the euro is rather disturbing if you ask me and couple that with the NHC admittance of low confidence and ortt mentioning the ridge weaking and i smell something brewing here today.
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Concerned IVAN is about to bomb out...(i.e. GROW not Weaken)

#3015 Postby PerfectStorm » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:48 am

There seems to be a lot of discussion about the current ERC that is occurring. This is only temporary fluctuation, no matter how 'ragged' the storm may appear. My guess is that we will see Ivan rapidly intensify later on today. Max Mayfield was even quoted a few minutes ago on TV stating that nothing stands in Ivan's way regarding intensification, flucuations normal. I expect we will see a very deep eyewall after the cycle completes similar to Frances when in the southeastern Caribbean. There is a tremendous amount of convection on all sides of Ivan its just a matter of time and consolidation. imho.... Naples to Tampa GET PREPARED now! Noticed this morning in S Tampa several gas stations are low or out of gas already. Grocery stores are not in full stock mode yet.
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#3016 Postby Three Blind Mice » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:49 am

Heads up Carolinas!!!
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Re: To Tampa Possibly As Cat 5

#3017 Postby Jevo » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:50 am

canegrl04 wrote:Al Roaker on NBC Today show said that Ivan is expected to strengthen after Cuba and could be cat 5 when he makes landfall around Tampa



Wait.... Al Roker is an actual Met????
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#3018 Postby weatherwoman » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:52 am

we see a lot of the models are pointing east this morning but they change so much no one knows. I live on the coast of the Carolinas (north) so of course i am keeping my eyes open, but really do you think it will come this way?
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#3019 Postby paradoxsixnine » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:54 am

Whaddya mean "heads up Carolinas???" ***grr***
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#3020 Postby otowntiger » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:54 am

Just like Frances he is weakening far no apparent reason, fortunately and just in time! I see a weak cat 3 hitting the Jamaica and a weaker cat 2 in the Gulf by Monday. I could be wrong but I think this is a trend and not just fluctuation. He could still do a lot of damage, but much, much less than if he'd stayed as strong as he was yesterday morning.
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