Ivan Advisories

[Innotech]

Ivan isnt at all ragged. the convection in his center is extremely strong still, and his outflow remains impressive. Ivan is oging through a typical ERC right now and will hit Jamaica extremely hard.

[Weatherboy1]

If there's one thing that is consistent among almost ALL the models, it's that at the end of the forecast period, Ivan will be hooking more NNE or NE than due N. You can see it in the UKMET track, the late-period ECMWF, the GFS, all the hurricane models (BAMD, LBAR, etc.), and even the Canadian, which is now showing a Big Bend/East Panhandle FL hit instead of a landfall in the New Orleans area:

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi?time=2004091000&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=120hr

I believe ... unfortunately ... that we're looking at another Charley here, with perhaps an entry into the FL coast around the same location or maybe further south. But I also think the East Coast of FL will see stronger winds than with Charley as Ivan is a bit broader, the storm looks to me to be turning more NW a bit earlier than expected, and the "hook" will be at a sharper angle than Charley's. Too early to say fore sure, but that's my current outlook.

[PerfectStorm]

n/t

[AlexiBlue]

Wow, so for this storm it is okay to discuss the possibility of the storm at least hitting the Carolinas after Florida?

But really, serious Met folks, I know this thing is still pretty far out. However, all the folks from Florida are going to start running North very shortly. God knows we had Florida plates all over Charleston for Frances.

But if Ivan should come through Florida, go Atlantic and then start sliding up the East Coast, where are we Carolinians going to go? All our roads are going to be swamped with Florida traffic - and some of us spent 21 hours to go 50 miles during the Floyd evac.

I'm really scared about having half of Florida trying to evac out of Georgia & the Carolinas (along with all us residents!) if this thing whacks Florida and then does a bounce up the East Coast.

[Derek Ortt]

frances was sheared like a chea-pet. There was a good reason for her weakening

[Thunder44]

Let's remember that TPC has been calling for flucations in intensity. So that means that it would go up and down but still be a Cat 4 or 5 hurricane.

[logybogy]

They have not issued any warnings or watches for western Cuba.

What do they know that the National Hurricane Center doesn't? The cubans have some smart meterologists in their own right and do their own forecasts.

This is interesting to me since Ivan seems to be going to the right of the NHC model guidance.

[das8929]

But I notice the last few frames a westward wobble.

[KayFL]

Cookiely, I agree, I miss Roy Leep! I can not stand the weather people on channel 28. I like channel 10 and channel 8. I had never watched 8 before Frances, but their Viper system was awesome. I still trust Dick Fletcher.

[B-Bear]

I highly doubt Cuba knows anything we do not know. I would expect for them to post watches on west Cuba as soon as Ivan crosses Jamaica.

[x-y-no]

I assume it's just a timing issue. Watches will go up for western Cuba real soon.

[chadtm80]

FWIW.. Castro went on the air last night and asked that all cubans help eachother so that they dont have to except ANY help for the USA.

[canegrl04]

Maybe they purposely aren't so they can blame the destruction on the US

[B-Bear]

Yeah, he also said that the Bush administration has developed technology which enables us to make hurricanes go where we want them to go, and that we're sending them to Cuba to punish them.

If only it were true...

[Innotech]

a bit of shear, osme obvious dry air entrtainment, and aneyewall replacement cycle will probably bring her down to Cat 4 135 mph.

[Anonymous]

I think its really to early to say much above the 2 day track. The models flip flop east & west. Yesterday I believe the models were more east at this sametime after a earlier western run, then by late afternoon they had shifted west again. They have trended overall longer west than east, but that means little.
I just think its premature to call the track based on the models which seem to have a good handle on the track up to western Cuba.

Take Care,
Mike

[Stormcenter]

Looks like west of Florida are in the clear now. All models are going to Florida.

Oh please now don't damage your repuatation and make a
"bold" statement like that. I would hope you know by now
that "nothing" is written in stone when comes to hurricanes.

[das8929]

Lol that would be the most powerful weapon.

[Stormcenter]

frances was sheared like a chea-pet. There was a good reason for her weakening

Yes and the models didn't see that coming.

[EverythingIsEverything]

Right, nothing stands in the way for Ivan to weaken as you stated Max Mayfield saying; but if Ivan continues to weaken and not sustain or regain Cat 4 or 5 status as he has been fluctuating between, what would be the explanation of it's weakening, of course there hasn't yet been a trend for weakening, but if it continues under these 'favorable conditions for strengthning' what in the world could explain it?