Ivan Advisories

[ricreig]

Being new, and having no training/education in this area, what constitutes a hurricane "bombing out"??? Sometimes the useage here suggests it occurs when the storm reaches some sort of maximum strength. Other times, the useage suggests it occurs when the storm is dying out. Thanks in advance for your reply. This is a great site.

Bomb=explode as in getting stronger.... Fizzle=implode, shrink, die out or weaken.

[EverythingIsEverything]

dry air entrainment and some shear to his northwest

Thanks Innotech!

[ColdWaterConch]

A "Saltwaterconch" is a person born in Key West.

A "Freshwaterconch" was originally a person born elsewhere in the keys...but is also a person who lives in the keys and born elsewhere.

A "ColdWaterConch" is a person who used to live in Key West, but now lives in Pittsburgh

These are extraordinary measures....conchs just don't leave the keys...they did not during Andrew....nor Georges. Quite honestly, this is rather amazing.

[canegrl04]

Nice,tight swirl around where the eye should be.The eye may be getting ready to pop out again

[Frank P]

certainly hints of a little dry air entrenched somewhat in the northeast quadrant, at least on the latest IR loops....

[wjs3]

BlueNole:

Take a look at this link-- a Tropical Cyclone glossary:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml

There are actual definitions (based on pressure change) that the
NHC/TPC use for Explosive deepening and Rapid deepening. Look those two up in this glossary.

Not exactly "bombing", but should give you an idea.

[cvalkan4]

Water vapor loop looks like an ULL developing north of the Bahamas. How might that affect Ivan's track and intensity?

[DoctorHurricane2003]

It is an eyewall replacement cycle. That is simply the only reason why: notice the filling of the eye, rising pressure, lowering of wind, and the recon report of a broken eyewall....

That's all it is...once it completes, expect it to strengthen further.

[feederband]

[EverythingIsEverything]

So with the People in the Keyes moving into FLorida...eventually they will have to evacuate in Florida as well, how far are the people in the Keyes going to drive..to Miami? to Port Charlotte? or do they leave and try to go to Jacksonville? and the people who will be told to evacuate later *possibly* in tampa, sarasota, punta gorda..where do you go to Orlando? or maybe to Georgia. Basically, this is not going to be pretty...and gas will be a problem again

[BlueNole]

Thanks. But does "bomb" generally describe strengthening? Or does it describe some monumental occurance?

[/quote]

[tronbunny]

Good morning folks.
Yesterday, Gov. Jeb said that it is "unrealistic" for most folks to evac. Only those, on the mainland, that are in damaged, unprotected, modular homes or low lying areas should evac.
Most can go to local shelters if they feel their homes are not fairly sturdy. If you're boarded up, and live in a sturdy (yes even wood frame - inland) find a safe room and hunker down there.
If you don't want the hassle, got to a local shelter. Your house can wait for you and the storm, while you have the resources of food and hopefully good company.

We'll all get thru fine.

From the movie Jurassic Park "Hold onto your butts!"

[tallbunch]

have you seen their weather center. It's one map taped to the wall and one computer. It's post on Rush Limbughs website.

[huricanwatcher]

DUMB A$$!!!!!

[c5Camille]

and in the end... they are gonna be pissed when
the authoraties don't let them return for a week or
more..

they are gonna raise holy cane!

[Three Blind Mice]

appears Ivan is just having a growing phase. 11am wind fields should show at least a 25-50 mile growth in TS winds. Not good. Remember the ice skater analogy.

[MBryant]

Frances is noted for the frequency of Eyewall Replacement Cycles (ERCs) as it stalled East of Florida.

Ivan has had two ERCs in the last 24 hours.

Are the Rapid ERCs (RERCs) another phenomenon which needs study?

They are certainly helpfull as reducing the intensity of the storm, but will we see the storm expand due to these RERCs?

[ColdWaterConch]

I can't see a conch going past Miami....they for sure are not going past Orlando, b/c they want to get back to the islands ASAP.

Actually, I just spoke to my father...he is trying to board up best that he can (he ordered storm shutters after Charley...but they have a 2 mo backorder). He said that everyone down there is spooked and is getting out.

[cloud_galaxy]

The Defensa Civil yesterday has put the six eastern provinces of Cuba on "alarma ciclónica", i.e. hurricane warning, and the three central provinces on "alerta ciclónica", i.e. hurricane watch.

The authorities are preparing to evacuate several hundred thousand people.

This is from Radio Martí 's website.

[Hurrilurker]

The outflow does not look as well as before. Good news for Jamaica.

I think it's too early to say that. If it were closer to Jamaica, I'd say you're right, but it looks like there's at least 6-8 more hours before the eye reaches the island. That's plenty of time for strengthening and the convection around the core is still extremely deep and fully wrapped. Jamaica is still not out of the woods. Also still a less than small chance that Kingston will see a direct eyewall hit. By the 2pm AST discussion we should have a pretty good idea.