Ivan Advisories

[Air Force Met]

I don't think it is just eyewall replacement cycle. They would have said something to reflect that, i.e. concentric eyewalls...

A straightforward eyewall replacement cycle in a healthy storm will make it look ragged in the very centre, but the outer parts will look strong.

Ivan looks rather disorganized ATT. Not that it means much, he has already been down couple of times and bounced back strong.

It is probably just an EWRC. The NHC even noted another wind maxima in the discussion. Also...when a storm does not have a huge CDO...which Ivan doesn't...this is a typical satellite pic for a storm going through a EWRC.

Latest satellite pics show it is coming back as well.

[rbaker]

several factors for weakening temporarly, ridge from the ne impeding outflow on ivan, getting near land (jamaica has some 7000 ft mountains) and its almost impossible for a hurricane to maintain cat 5 or even 4 for long periods of time. As with frances we will see flutuations and this one is no exception.

[inotherwords]

By the way, NHC is showing direct hit (landfall) at Sarasota, not Tampa, though Tampa is just 60 miles north.

Having lived through Charley, 60 miles can make a big difference. Port Charlotee/Punta Gorda got decimated, while we got barely anything, just 30 miles up the road.

Just saying.

[flair]

I agree that the track will shift west at 11 am. Avila is religious with the GFDL and FSU superensemble. I can't explain it, that's just the way it is.

[rbaker]

where is the nogaps model? That was a very good model with Frances. Consesus with the models was to the right though, maybe rounding the ridge that's coming in from atlantic wsw towards bahamas.

[cycloneye]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MKJP.html


Nothing impressive from the observations as the pressures are not too low yet and the winds are light so far but later today all will change so let's follow this observation link until it goes.

[wxwatcher2]

By the way, NHC is showing direct hit (landfall) at Sarasota, not Tampa, though Tampa is just 60 miles north.

Having lived through Charley, 60 miles can make a big difference. Port Charlotee/Punta Gorda got decimated, while we got barely anything, just 30 miles up the road.

Just saying.

I think Ivan if it moves due North from Sarasota would still pound the rock in tampa bay......
If that is the track.....bunker ourself in

[tallbunch]

I see it going over FL and into the ATlantic and out to sea

[tronbunny]

I just want to lighten up the doom and gloom for FL.
Face it, somewhere in FL we're getting Ivan.
I'm no met and there's still time to see, but there's evidence that Ivan will encounter shear in the GOM.

8am NHC discussion:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TCDAT4

AFTER 48 HOURS...
THE LAND MASS OF CUBA AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BRING
ABOUT SOME WEAKENING...

Yes, I know, we'll see when it gets here.
Also...mind you... A cat 3 is no picnic as seen with Frances.

[hibiscushouse]

just 30 miles up the road.

I agree, but how much bigger is Ivan?

[Anonymous]

I believe we will find the track with follow the...

BAMM and BAMD models.

[Derek Ortt]

graphics now at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004graphics.html

Does not look like Mia willget a direct hit. Right now, it appears as if the worst case scenario would be Mia receiving category two conditions if it deviates to the right of the forecast track.

The keys would probably get cat 2 conditions just on this forecast track and category 4/5 conditions if there is any shift to the right

[tronbunny]

keep an eye on A98E, I expect him to get back on the rock today and start projecting landfall in Cancun, after visiting Houston.

Ahh, the A98E.
I really believe it's there to remind everyone that computers are NOT the final authority.

[wxwatcher2]

So with the People in the Keyes moving into FLorida...eventually they will have to evacuate in Florida as well, how far are the people in the Keyes going to drive..to Miami? to Port Charlotte? or do they leave and try to go to Jacksonville? and the people who will be told to evacuate later *possibly* in tampa, sarasota, punta gorda..where do you go to Orlando? or maybe to Georgia. Basically, this is not going to be pretty...a
nd gas will be a problem again

Ahhh, last time I checked, the KEYS WERE INCLUDED IN "FLORIDA".

Although, Key West acts like they are a nation unto themselves....lol

[Weatherboy1]

One of the main things the NHC does in coming up with a forecast is average the GFDL, UKMET, NOGAPS and GFS(formerly AVN) models. This "GUNA" consensus guides a lot of their thinking, from what I've read. The GFDL is basically right on top of the official 5 a.m. forecast, the UKMET is a bit to the east and then NNE through FL. The NOGAPS is way west, showing a hit in the western Panhandle, and the GFS is the easternmost model, showing a hit in extreme SW FL and then a reemergence off the east FL coast. Remember that all the tropical models (BAMM, LBAR, etc.) are based on the GFS background forecast. So it's understandable that they are all telling different versions of the same story (a SW FL hit, then a path NE across the state).

All told, if you factor in the NOGAPS outlier solution, you can see why the NHC track is where it is. I believe the models are converging further east, and think that even that track may not be easterly enough. I'm thinking we could see a landfall SOUTH of where Charley came in, then a NNE or NE path across the state. But I understand the NHC's forecast. Hope this helps ...

[tronbunny]

Derek,

I truly respect your analysis.
I'm only saying this because, there will be those that wish to point and say, "he's not perfect! He's changing his mind!"
Folks, if you haven't heard, Mr. Ortt is a straight up good forecaster.
I'd rather heed the advice from a forecaster that uses the resources and adjusts his analysis to the conditions that evolve.
Thank you so very much for your efforst to keep us informed.

[tallbunch]

Wants it hits land derek, do you see this making a straight north movement ot NE movement...out to sea?

[feederband]

Unfortuntley it looks like Ivan was sleeping in late today. Looks like he maybe waking up

[Guest]

No doubt now look at the latest stream. No way but through the island. Luckily for them this is no Cat 5 looks like a strong cat 3 to me. Good luck hope there are no riots.

[ColdWaterConch]

Actually, the Keys seceded from the US in the '80s (and immediately asked for foreign assistance... ). You can actually get a Conch Republic passport in Key West.

http://www.conchrepublic.com/

Conchs don't like being told what to do...and they are gonna be PO'd if they can't return immediately.

I'm still waiting to see how many actually evacuate.