wxrisk forecast.......opinions???

frankthetank · #21 Postby **frankthetank** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 2:06 pm

he expresses his opinions differently than most, but i've been a long time fan of his site...atleast his willing to admit when he makes inaccurate forecasts....

southerngale · #22 Postby **southerngale** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 2:19 pm

FungusMoldlyColdcuts wrote:DT said "This is not a florida storm. NOT HAPPENING" 2 days ago....for the record.

Yes, and on his site he now says "Let me start out by saying that my declarative statement that IVAN was NOT a FL storm
is going to be 100% wrong." and then he moves on with his forecast...

FungusMoldlyColdcuts · #23 Postby **FungusMoldlyColdcuts** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:51 am

southerngale? your point? he's an honest forecaster. Did I not say, I was not bashing him? DT knows his stuff, as do many others

#24 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:31 am

I find this site VERY hard to read....too busy looking!!

#25 Postby **jlauderdal** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:44 am

PurdueWx80 wrote:His synoptic reasoning is absolutely superb!!! I am in full agreement, except I do believe Ivan will be a few degrees west of where he puts it. I would have to say that 82-88 W is more in line with my thinking.

last chance to back off of this 85-88 stuff?

#26 Postby **jlauderdal** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:49 am

charleston_hugo_veteran wrote:I find this site VERY hard to read....too busy looking!!

i will take substance over style any day. DT lays out the goods..he put a nice 10 minute educational seminer on last night in barometer bobs show. he provides the links, you click and he discusses. It was extremely informative. I would hope we could get advance notice of his appearance as he often puts on a clinic..even if turns not correct the reasoning for his forecast is dead on. MW does same thing. How about 1/2 hour devoted to these guys with their instruction in one of the teamspeak shows. Sure beats somebody saying well my gut tells me we are due in this area or my dog is barking loud so its going west and all that stuff we have seen in the past.

Windsong · #27 Postby **Windsong** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:26 am

I've been a DT fan for many years. He can be a little flamboyant at times, but that just adds to his charm.

Bammer89 · #28 Postby **Bammer89** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:26 am

Newbie seeks advice. Cousin from Fort Myers wants to bring his family to me in Fort Lauderdale. His elderly mother will have real trouble if my power goes down. Based on the current rack, how bad will it be in Broward County. Are we talking about strong tropical force winds that will likely take down the power again. Any help would be appreciated.

FungusMoldlyColdcuts · #29 Postby **FungusMoldlyColdcuts** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 8:46 am

jlauderdal wrote:
charleston_hugo_veteran wrote:I find this site VERY hard to read....too busy looking!!

i will take substance over style any day. DT lays out the goods..he put a nice 10 minute educational seminer on last night in barometer bobs show. he provides the links, you click and he discusses. It was extremely informative. I would hope we could get advance notice of his appearance as he often puts on a clinic..even if turns not correct the reasoning for his forecast is dead on. MW does same thing. How about 1/2 hour devoted to these guys with their instruction in one of the teamspeak shows. Sure beats somebody saying well my gut tells me we are due in this area or my dog is barking loud so its going west and all that stuff we have seen in the past.

yep the information and insight on the barometer bob show is really good.
Those fellas know their stuff!

AL Chili Pepper · #30 Postby **AL Chili Pepper** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 8:58 am

stormcloud wrote:Gee, wasn't it the ECMWF that kept taking Charley to Texas up to the last day before landfall?

*

#31 Postby **MBismyPlayground** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 10:31 am

Has anyone checked out his new forecast?????? Opinions on it?

Lockhart · #32 Postby **Lockhart** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 10:46 am

He seems awfully snotty for someone who is so often wrong. People say they like that he admits when he is wrong. Well, sure, that's nice. But when he's continually saying "The NHC is spewing a line of total b***s***", it's hard to say he's a great guy when he's *wrong* all the time.

He said Frances wouldn't stall--and it did. He said Frances wouldn't go up the East coast--and it did. He said Ivan would *never* come North enough to threaten Florida--and it did. He said Frances's extra Westerly movement precluded East coast landfall-and here Ivan is. So, for the last couple hurricanes at least, the only thing he's gotten right is a Florida hit for Frances--which the NHC had all along.

From what I've seen, the NHC has been spot on, and WX has been like this: "The NHC is insane! Liars! ... Ok, I was totally wrong on that, but on the next thing, the NHC is totally wrong! Liars! ... OK, I was totally wrong on that, but ..."

I'll take the NHC, thanks. Maybe if WXrisk backed of from his claims of lying I'd take him more seriously.

tallbunch · #33 Postby **tallbunch** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 11:06 am

Does he have this going to Charleston or Wilmingham? By looking at his map, it would got to Charleston.....by reading his forecast, it would go to Wilington?? Did I miss something?

lbchandler · #34 Postby **lbchandler** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 11:12 am

What does DT do for a living?

CaluWxBill · #35 Postby **CaluWxBill** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 11:19 am

lbchandler wrote:What does DT do for a living?

He predicts weather for energy companies.

isobar · #36 Postby **isobar** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 11:25 am

His bio on wxrisk.com:

Who does the forecasting for WxRisk.Com?

I do. My name is David Tolleris and I have been an operational meteorologist since 1987. I attended CCNY and completed my degree program at U of MD. I have worked in several large private weather forecasting companies until I joined the National Weather Service in 1993. I left the NWS in 1998 and founded Windsong Forecasts which owns and runs WxRisk.Com. I have a strong individualist streak and like many proprietors, I do not work well under other folks, but I do a really good job working FOR someone --such as a client-- that is relying on me for information and service. WxRisk.Com exists for three reasons: Internet, the NWS, and the U.S. Constitution.

#37 Postby **Stephanie** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 11:47 am

FungusMoldlyColdcuts wrote:DT said "This is not a florida storm. NOT HAPPENING" 2 days ago....for the record.

Yes he did, but he did mention in his forecast in the link above that the assumption was wrong - at least he admitted it here... :wink:

Guest · #38 Postby **Guest** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 11:53 am

Hi Donna!

Yeah DT is one of the better mets i have known. Cant say i agree with his track that far south into FL which i said last night to him in chat. Even though him and mw did give very good reasoning besides just the models as to why they think what they do. In which case we all see the same thing its just a matter of how we see it all playing out in the end which in reality isnt much different. What makes it seem so different is because of the way FL sits and the kinda angle this cane will be comming at it. I am in the Tampa north and west thinking and have been. I do honestly think by late tonight we should all have a good grasp as to exactly where this cane is going.

wxrisk forecast.......opinions???

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