Ivan Advisories

[Josephine96]

Sounds to me like even they think Ivan will come pay Florida a visit

[feederband]

Just another wait and see game........

[CaptinCrunch]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

[Lockhart]

Isn't that frustrating? Every night, I go to bed thinking, "Well, I'll know more tomorrow." Every morning, I still don't really know.

[x-y-no]

You can always do it the easy way. Take a piece of paper and hold it up against your monitor, while positioning the paper against the sat image so that the southern edge of the eye wall stays riding along the edge of the paper. Keep adjusting the paper until the edge of the eye wall remains on the paper throughout the sat loop. Then look to the upper left hand corner of the paper. As you can see, it runs through Jamaica. See? No fancy equipment required.

Yeah, that works fine for relatively short distances like the current distance from Ivan to Jamaica. Keep in mind though that sattelite images are not perfect Mercator projections in general, and that therefore the paper or ruler method will not neccesarily be accurate at long distances.

[BocaGirl]

Draining sure is the word. I was on South Beach last night, and every single person I asked about the hurricane had the same response. Total exhaustion. (

I think I can understand what it must be like to live in a war zone. After a while you don't care much about some things anymore and care deeply about other stuff that you never thought was important. To make it all worse, Palm Beach County has a 10 PM -5AM curfew and arrests people caught on the street or in their cars. Enough! Power is spotty, phone service is spotty and cable tv comes and goes.

BocaGirl
Barbara

[ncweatherwizard]

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... /ivan.html

Now I'm back to where I was this time yesterday, with a brush by the western Keys then landfall in the southwestern peninsula. And extended, this forecast brings the storm back over the ocean at 120 hours, so if this verifies, the Carolinas would have a messy day late Wed./Thurs. next week.

[feederband]

Looks good if you don't happen to live in Jamaica.

[Lockhart]

Watching the last few hurricanes has given me greatly increased confidence in the NHC. The only real miscalculations they've had have been while Ivan was so far South it was record-breaking. Notice that, despite the second-guessing here in the forums that Jamaica will be missed to the North, Ivan's aimed right at Jamaica. Those guys at the NHC are good.

[WeatherEmperor]

That forecast doesnt look very well for South Florida.

<RICKY>

[B-Bear]

Outflow seems to be improving as well.

[x-y-no]

:D
Wow!
That was an awesome explanation! I get it.
I hope the Mods don't want to pull those graphics on this thread, very enlightening.

Thanks!!!!

Now, let's see how reliable GFS is.

The graphics are hotlinked from the NCEP site, so they won't cause any bandwidth problems for the board. Of course, that also means anyone looking at this thread on a later date will see totally unrelated graphics.

Regarding reliability of the GFS, I don't think it's blowing the synoptic situation here, at least not in the really short term we're talking about.

[Derek Ortt]

there is 0 chance of this missing Jamaica to the north.

I have just zoomed in a garp image, due west for the last hour

[~SirCane]

It's going to go over the Southern coast of Jamaica.

[otowntiger]

Unfortunately it looks like there is no way it is going to miss Jamaica. still hoping for a weaker storm, but it does look somewhat better than a few hours ago.

[Possum Trot]

Strom Caribe posts reporting steady rain and gusty winds in Jamaica. Sustained wind on the hilltops. Flooding and emergency evacuations in Portmore. Mudslides in Port Antonio.

http://stormcarib.com/reports/2004/jamaica.shtml

[sprink52]

or is it just me. NHC doesn't seem as commited to Ivan's track as they were Frances'..or maybe it's my perception

[Derek Ortt]

One reason as to why I am conservative with these forecasts is to avoid the flip flopping, which merely creates extreme public confusion. This site has been heavily accessed these past few days with the vast majority of the hits not even coming from s2k. Therefore, it is essential to remain calm and provide true guidance to help those in the danger zone

[Canelaw99]

The only thing they seem commited to is the fact that it's going to hit Cuba, and that's it. There's just too much uncertainity beyond that for my liking.

[Possum Trot]

Eye of the storm visible by radar.

http://www.metservice.gov.jm/radarpage.asp