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charleston_hugo_veteran
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#3261 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Fri Sep 10, 2004 11:24 am

x-y-no wrote:
tronbunny wrote:
x-y-no wrote:He's interacting more heavily with the ridge now. This is really obvious in both the visible and WV loops if one looks up just over and north of Cuba.

If the ridge were strong, it would accellerate him more westerly. But instead it's weakening, so just slowing him down on his WNW track. The slower he goes, the more time the tip of the ridge has to break down completely. That Atlantic mid to upper low is still headed into the picture and will contribute to that.


Hmmm, because the wind pattern in the ridge is clockwise, I'd expect a conveyor effect to the NNE.
Please help me out with this one.
:?:



The problem is the ridge appears to be weakening in front of him. I'll illustrate with the first few frames of the 12Z GFS which is just coming out.

Here's the initialization:

Image

Note the 588 line just north of him, and the closed low at about 30N 55W.

Now here's 6 hours:

Image

See how the 588 line has backed off and the low is now outside of it still moving W? Also note the weakness left behind by Frances over Georgia.

Now here's 12 hours:

Image

The low is still moving W and the ridge still backing off. Steering currents for Ivan are real weak.

Here's 24 hours:

Image

Now there's a split between the ridges right over FL, and the system MWatkins pointed out yesterday is coming in towards the Great lakes ready to make a connection and pull him north.


THANKS FOR THE GRAPHICS! This is the explanation I was looking for! Great! :wink:
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Josephine96

#3262 Postby Josephine96 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 11:24 am

I still sadly think it's a slam dunk that Fla will get a 3rd storm in a row
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butch
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#3263 Postby butch » Fri Sep 10, 2004 11:25 am

newbie question- RSMAS?
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Josephine96

#3264 Postby Josephine96 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 11:26 am

The storm looks beautiful on the radar image.. Bet the Jamaicans don't think so :eek:
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Question On Ivan's Potential Shear Over The GOM...?

#3265 Postby Hurricane Cheese » Fri Sep 10, 2004 11:28 am

Where do the models suggest the shear will be coming from (ie - what part of the gulf) and why (ie - what synoptic system) will the shear begin to occur?

I'm just trying to better understand the set up we might see in the GOM...



Also, was it true that they forecasted shear for Charley in the Gulf as well!?!
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Derek Ortt

#3266 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Sep 10, 2004 11:28 am

Rosentiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (part of UM)
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~SirCane
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FSU model trends further West.....

#3267 Postby ~SirCane » Fri Sep 10, 2004 11:29 am

To the extreme Western FL Panhandle.

I don't have a direct link-but it has moved West to Pensacola. :roll:
Last edited by ~SirCane on Fri Sep 10, 2004 11:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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butch
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#3268 Postby butch » Fri Sep 10, 2004 11:30 am

Thanks for the answer and thanks for your calm, reasoned and intelligent discussion of a very important and dangerous wx event. I have learned a lot from reading your posts.
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c5Camille

#3269 Postby c5Camille » Fri Sep 10, 2004 11:31 am

where did you view it?
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CaluWxBill
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#3270 Postby CaluWxBill » Fri Sep 10, 2004 11:31 am

ColdWaterConch wrote:http://www.metservice.gov.jm/

as good as it gets....


Man I couldn't find it for Charley. Awesome thanks.
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#3271 Postby Canehater » Fri Sep 10, 2004 11:33 am

If it takes that route we would be well over 100 miles from the eye. I don't think that would be the worst of it. I am not worried!
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#3272 Postby miamijaaz » Fri Sep 10, 2004 11:33 am

I thought that model wasn't released to the public?
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~SirCane
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#3273 Postby ~SirCane » Fri Sep 10, 2004 11:33 am

There is no way to post the FSU model. I got the info from 2 people with access to it. Once I can get some more of that info I'll post.

NOGAPS is very close to it. FSU's is just slightly West of that.
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WeatherEmperor
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#3274 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Sep 10, 2004 11:33 am

That was just an awsome explanation man. Took alot of time and effort to get that done I am sure.

<RICKY>
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wxwatcher2
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#3275 Postby wxwatcher2 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 11:34 am

FSU is a subscriber only model.
How can we possibly check it out?
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Cape Verde
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#3276 Postby Cape Verde » Fri Sep 10, 2004 11:34 am

What is that island south of Jamaica that is outlined on the radar? I can't find it on any map of the Caribbean.
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#3277 Postby Lindaloo » Fri Sep 10, 2004 11:35 am

You can't wxwatcher.
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#3278 Postby wlfpack81 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 11:36 am

Right now there's a trough in the GOM extending in a SW to NE orientation from the Bay of Campeche up to the Big Bend area of FL as well as a stationary front situated in north central and nw-ern parts of the GOM. Winds in the trough are moving from SW to NE and this is what could help to shear Ivan as it gets north of Cuba.

Here's the 15z surface analysis from UCAR:
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/progs/prog00hr.gif
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~SirCane
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#3279 Postby ~SirCane » Fri Sep 10, 2004 11:36 am

Yep-you can't.
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AL Chili Pepper
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#3280 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Fri Sep 10, 2004 11:36 am

NHC said in 5AM discussion that FSU was a western outlier, so I believe it.
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