Upper Low in the Western GOM!

[CocoaBill]

How does this low now impact the storm movement potential?


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1125 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004


WEAK
UPPER LOW EVEN AT THIS HOUR CAN BE SEEN IN THE WRN GULF. THE GFS AND
EVEN THE ETA HOLD ON TO THIS WEAKNESS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE ETA UNDERSTANDABLY DOES NOT SEE IVAN IN THE EVENTUAL SFC
PROG...IT DOES HAVE THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS SEES THE LOW AND USES IT
TO START IVAN ON A MORE NORTHERLY AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS TRACK
FOR THE SERN US. AFTER THAT THE ERN US IS VULNERABLE ONCE AGAIN.

[yoda]

Hmm, I think that would force a quicker track to the N and NE... but any mets on here or others that would know?

[wlfpack81]

Looks like the GFS may not hav been totally insane when it was showing the storm possibly having future landfall into NC/SC. Definitely have to watch to see how this ULL influence the track.

[SCHawkFan]

I don't think there can be much movement to the NNE or NE, but a N move is very possible. If I was in SE FL I would not rest easy quite yet.

[CocoaBill]

SCHawkFan, check out these model runs regarding the NNE potential:

http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

[Josephine96]

I think it'll move N or NE once it starts turning.. Central and South Florida threat once again

[HouTXmetro]

Ok, what direction is this low forecasted to move in? What implications will the direction that the low moves have on IVAN? Is this low expected to develope or has the potential to develop at some point in the future? Lots of questions to be answered.

[robjay]

Novice question if I may- would a Western GOM Low repel or attract Ivan?

[CocoaBill]

From what I understand, robjay, is that low pressure areas attract hurricanes. However, the effect of upper level versus lower level lows causing the attraction is unknown by me. Maybe one of our professional mets can answer?

[BayouVenteux]

Novice question if I may- would a Western GOM Low repel or attract Ivan?

The NWS pretty much answers your question in their statement...the ULL --in this case --would enhance a northward, southerly flow. One of the mets here would be better qualified to answer this, but I think that may also be part of the reasoning for the forecast of increasing shear weakening Ivan somewhat as it progresses northward into the SE Gulf.

[HurricaneJoe22]

If it does turn north earlier than forecast, that would put it over rougher terrain in Cuba and that would weaken it considerably more than forecast, correct?

[Josephine96]

I do believe so.. Yes the rougher Cuban terrain would also do a number on the storm

[Foladar]

And if it turns north earlier than forecast, that would also put it in Miami area? or the Keys?