Ivan Advisories

[soonertwister]

The pressure rise was due to some temporary disorganization and the formation of a new eye. I wouldn't be suprised at all to see the pressure drop to where it was before, or even go lower.

[miamijaaz]

yeah, I would be more worried if it traveled NE across the state like most of the models are indicating...

[x-y-no]

Well, that's very interesting. I hear it's supposed to be a superior model, so one would have to give this a lot of credence.

Maybe the GFS and the Euro still are weakening the ridge too much too quick.

[miamijaaz]

I don't. Nothing good ever comes out of FSU.

(Sorry, just getting psyched up for tonight's game!)

[Stephanie]

Thanks Derek once again!

[~SirCane]

NOGAPS is very close as well, as I stated before.

All bets are off once he passes Cuba. : \

[Possum Trot]

What is that island south of Jamaica that is outlined on the radar? I can't find it on any map of the Caribbean.

I don't know. Somebody posted a very detailed map of the Carribean in the past few days. I thought I snagged it, but can't find it now. Does anyone have the link?

[canegrl04]

Hes getting stronger as he makes his way over Jamaica

[elliotj]

John Gumm of WWL TV just confirmed this in WWL weather forum. FSU model pointing to the panhandle west of all the models.

[MWatkins]

The 12Z NOGAPS is out and it is much closer to the west coast than the 0Z model was...way closer.

If the 12Z FSU-SE is already showing results it is probably because it only has the CMC and maybe the mm5 track so far. It will change as the other guidance comes in.

MW

[lwg8tr]

You'll be in the worst part of the storm and this is larger than Charley. Some of the models take it back out over the Atlantic as far south as the Vero Beach area. That would probably give you some hurricane force gusts.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_09.gif

I disagree. The hurricane wind field is 40 miles from the center. A Naples landfall would mean tropical storm force. Certainly no Frances 100 mph gusts like we got in Northern Palm Beach. Be prepared; be ready for more power outages, gas shortages, being uncomfortable..but Armageddon, certainly not. We will recover, rebuild and get through all of this. I really don't see any scenario proposed where we here on SE coast can expect a direct hit with those monstrous eyewall winds at Cat3 or Cat4 strength.

[das8929]

I dont see an eye on the infrared, but the overall convection and outflow looks alot better than it did 6 hours ago.

[ColinD]

Broward would be about 160 miles to the east of the center at closest approach. Nothing to worry about it if the NHC track holds.

[rockyman]

thanks, MW...I can hear bubbles bursting all over the place

[feederband]

eye is there

[canegrl04]

I saw a story on the news alittle awhile ago.It was a report from Jamaica and how people are saying it won't hit them,or it won't be very bad.This is sad

[Josephine96]

Eye's always been there.. even if it's hiding lol

[Stephanie]

VERY SAD!

[canegrl04]

I saw it on the VIS FLoater.Definite appearance of eye coming back.Earlier,it was covered over

[x-y-no]

Oh, man ... if there are significant numbers of people who still believe it won't hit them , that's really bad.