Ivan Advisories

[Cape Verde]

What news station?

[calidoug]

13mb change in one day is not huge at all.

[chadtm80]

Where did you see this? If its true.. Then uhhh..

[Josephine96]

I think up here I'll get at least hurricane force winds.. maybe stronger if Ivan decides to come across the peninsula

[CAL]

Come to da' sun mon!

That is truly sad. I pray those folks take more action than that.

[Brent]

You'll be in the worst part of the storm and this is larger than Charley. Some of the models take it back out over the Atlantic as far south as the Vero Beach area. That would probably give you some hurricane force gusts.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_09.gif

I disagree. The hurricane wind field is 40 miles from the center. A Naples landfall would mean tropical storm force. Certainly no Frances 100 mph gusts like we got in Northern Palm Beach. Be prepared; be ready for more power outages, gas shortages, being uncomfortable..but Armageddon, certainly not. We will recover, rebuild and get through all of this. I really don't see any scenario proposed where we here on SE coast can expect a direct hit with those monstrous eyewall winds at Cat3 or Cat4 strength.

That's true, but there are indications Ivan will expand like Frances once it gets into the Gulf. It's still larger than Charley right now.

FWIW... the southernmost model re-emerges it near West Palm Beach.

[Traveler]

I saw it on MSNBC, It was a video phone reporter there live talking with Wolf Blitzer. It also showed pictures of people boarding up windows in hotels and shops, but they were all just drifting around. They did not look like they were in a hurry. There was a brief segment on a grocery store, but again they looked really calm.

[clearwater]

Every news item I've seen where they're interviewing people on the island, they're just like Floridians -- some take it seriously, some don't, some are terrified, some are hardcore attitude...

[Brent]

What is that island south of Jamaica that is outlined on the radar? I can't find it on any map of the Caribbean.

There is no island south of Jamaica.

[LAwxrgal]

If that's the attitude I fear massive loss of life.

[CFL]

I sure hope it goes the other way. I just went grocery shopping and stocked up my freezer, feeling assured that a hurricane is *not* coming my way.

[itglobalsecure]

Tampa's getting worried. They picked up the insurance issues in their business section today.

http://tampabay.bizjournals.com/tampabay/stories/2004/09/06/daily30.html

[calidoug]

It's a tiny cay, drawn grossly out of proportion on the radar map for some reason...

[smashmode]

How close would Ivan have to be to Tampa (if it is going north to panhandle)

To devastate it?

[therock1811]

Okay...that makes total sense...I wondered because like I said, I'm an Ohio native, never heard of a conch in that sense, but have heard of conch shells...anyways, good luck to you all!

[Cape Verde]

Okay, good. I thought I was losing my mind there for awhile.<P>Weird.

[Anonymous]

Whats the differance there were hordes of people who didn't take Hurricane Charley serious here on the west coast of Florida. I am talking about areas that were under the gun like Tampa,St. Pete south to include where it hit. Then when it hit many of those same people in Punta Gorda were blaiming the local goverments or NHC for not alerting them. They just didn't care until it came up and bit them in the hiney. Had it been in the Tampa area the samething would have happened on a much larger scale, hundreds & hundreds of people who didn't care. Even while Charley was whipping up 30 miles to the south on Punta Gorda CNN was interviewing a couple large chicks from Indiana walking along the beach in Sarasota looking for shells in the pouring rains saying they had to be where the storm was. And were not worried at all. Had Charley blasted just a tad north into Sarsosta those two gals might have been mistaken for dead beached whales washed with the tide up along the coast.
People are people,
Take Care,

Mike

[jabber]

They will..... very soon

[TLHR]

I wouldn't let my guard down, even if Ivan weakens before landfall.

As I've noted with Floyd and Isabel, it would appear that even when a big storm weakens, it retains much of its kinetic energy. It just gets transmuted.

In other words, a storm that builds to a Category 5 then weakens to a Category 2 is much different than a storm that simply grew to a Category 2 and came ashore.

Isabel's wind field was much larger than a regular Category 2 storm.
And Floyd's rainbands stretched all the to the US/Canadian border as it came ashore in Wilmington.

Weakened storms, yes. But able to spread flooding rains and gusty winds over a larger area.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

they will next time!