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chris_fit
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New Voretx....

#3361 Postby chris_fit » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:52 pm

Says pressure is 940. This has rissen over 20mb like a day. Great news.




000

URNT12 KNHC 101738
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/1738Z
B. 16 DEG 45 MIN N
75 DEG 42 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2568 M
D. 90 KT
E. 111 DEG 016 NM
F. 183 DEG 112 KT
G. 095 DEG 010 NM
H. 940 MB
I. 9 C/ 3063 M
J. 17 C/ 3068 M
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C16
N. 12345/07
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF984 1509A IVAN OB 07
MAX FL WIND 112 KT E QUAD 1735Z.

;




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soonertwister
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#3362 Postby soonertwister » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:53 pm

How's this for an unbelievable breaking story from a Jamaican TV station?

Their "breaking news" at noon features a print article about Ivan being 1200 kilometers east-southeast of the island.

For real.

http://www.cvmtv.com/newspage.php?story ... 008%202004
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#3363 Postby Varanidae » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:53 pm

i am with you on that alicia, i have three cats and two birds, i am not looking forward to the possibility of having a food chain in my honda. sounds like fun...not.
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kevin

#3364 Postby kevin » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:53 pm

Its doing a Frances! This is great news... now if it continues this up, and entering the gulf with the increased shear, might be only a cat 1/2...
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#3365 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:53 pm

By that position it moved more west than to the north.From 75.1 now to 75.8w and only climbed from 16.5n to 16.8n meaning that it will pass just south of that island but they will get the most bad weather at the north side.
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#3366 Postby calidoug » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:54 pm

Pressure up now is good, but the storm is reorganizing on IR quite clearly, so I suspect that pressure will be heading down again...
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#3367 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:54 pm

I agree.... if you look here.. it looks like the NW portion of the storm is getting blown off...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

But it is trying to come back...
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#3368 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:54 pm

It's weakening according to recon reports. But it sure doesn't look that way on the satellite.
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Stormtrack03
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Weaker Ivan (New Recon)

#3369 Postby Stormtrack03 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:55 pm

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tro ... RNT12.KNHC

940 MB pressure and 112 kt winds E quad.
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Stormcenter
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#3370 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:55 pm

rockyman wrote:thanks, MW...I can hear bubbles bursting all over the place ;)


Why would bubbles be bursting based on someone else
post concerning model analysis? I think we need focus on what the NHC has to say and leave the model analysis to them. They are the ones
who have the better tools to forecast what Ivan will do.
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feederband
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#3371 Postby feederband » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:55 pm

Yea I believe the yo-yo is about down again.. :eek:
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Hurricane Cheese
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#3372 Postby Hurricane Cheese » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:55 pm

hmmmm, maybe Ivan is the "anti-Charley" ...get real strong early, and be real weak late...?

Although he still hasn't got to the area where Charley exploded yet...
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#3373 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:55 pm

It does appear Ivan has gone back to more of a 290 heading, maybe even more like 285.
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#3374 Postby LakeToho » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:55 pm

I have heard from a very good source that the FSU Super Ensemble Computer has never called for a track west of Pensacola.. In fact if anything it is 200 + miles to the right of Pensacola..

Confidence in the panhandle forecast is eroding with time as the pattern evolves
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alicia-w
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#3375 Postby alicia-w » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:56 pm

Here's an article on the documented accuracy of the FSU SE:

http://www.research.fsu.edu/scicol/3/teest.html

I guess there's no polite way to say "this sucks". I guess you could say "it inhales with great velocity".
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Stormtrack03
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#3376 Postby Stormtrack03 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:56 pm

chris_fit
, I suggest you read mf_dolphin's announcement about posting whole data info. on the board.
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NorthGaWeather

#3377 Postby NorthGaWeather » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:56 pm

The vortex shows a much healthier storm from 1105z.
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x-y-no
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#3378 Postby x-y-no » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:56 pm

Good to know he isn't deepening again yet. He may not have time to intensify an awful lot before hitting Jamaica.

Still a solid Cat 4, though, I'll bet. They'll find higher flt. level winds than that.
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N2FSU
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#3379 Postby N2FSU » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:56 pm

I saw yesterday's FSU Superensemble (18Z run) and it had Ivan headed straight for the Panhandle. I haven't been able to see any runs today... was hoping the newer runs would change and get it away from us here in Tallahassee.
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#3380 Postby soonertwister » Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:56 pm

Portmore is located just to the west of Kingston, and in recent years has grown to over a quarter million people. It is a low-lying area next to the south shore of Jamaica. If the eye of Ivan gets near there, the entire area will be under deep water, and many of those people will drown.
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