Weakening

#1 Postby **tailgater** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:09 pm

Shouldn't Ivan be weakening out flow not all that good seems to be a elongated trough from N bahamas northeastward and the UUL to it's west is starting to flex it's mucsles. I'm sure glad I don't have to forecast this bad boy

opera ghost · #2 Postby **opera ghost** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:13 pm

It looks like it hit a brick wall. I keep running my (97 image) loop over and over and the only thing I can tell is that when Ivan swung one of his bands around - it got sucked off to the northeast and fizzled. Looks liek he's trying to bring another one around on the bare side- but it looks like it's having trouble too.

I wish I knew enough to figgure out what the heck is going on down there.

dennis1x1 · #3 Postby **dennis1x1** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:14 pm

yes..looks like westerly shear has already begun.....tops blown from west to east.....only forecast to increase too....good news.

pressure up to 940mb, winds around 125

NorthGaWeather · #4 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:17 pm

Hmm. Weakening will not last as long as some wish.

yoda · #5 Postby **yoda** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:18 pm

dennis1x1 wrote:yes..looks like westerly shear has already begun.....tops blown from west to east.....only forecast to increase too....good news.

pressure up to 940mb, winds around 125

Are the winds your forecast? Cause on the 2 PM NHC advisory... the sustained winds were 145 MPH...

dennis1x1 · #6 Postby **dennis1x1** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:21 pm

no....im not forecasting winds...just stating what they are presently...

latest recon found 124mb max flight level.....coupled with the pressure and sat presentation the storm is currently around 125mph sustained surface.....

and yes, i realize that the nhc will maintain the stronger winds for 1 or 2 advisories after reality.

Eyes2theSkies · #7 Postby **Eyes2theSkies** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:23 pm

I'm kinda new to this but here's what I'm looking at...Ivan is reaching the end of a hallway and he'll have to turn left or right. It's my understanding that hurricanes tend to slow down forward motion and weaken slightly as they approach making a turn. Could this be what he's up to? Look at this WV loop, kinda scares me because if he makes a right at the end of the hall, it's going to put him on Charley's path...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Anonymous · #8 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:24 pm

It is probably currently 140 mph.

calidoug · #9 Postby **calidoug** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:26 pm

Nonsense, Dennis.

This:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

is not a weakening storm.

NorthGaWeather · #10 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:26 pm

dennis1x1 wrote:no....im not forecasting winds...just stating what they are presently...

latest recon found 124mb max flight level.....coupled with the pressure and sat presentation the storm is currently around 125mph sustained surface.....

and yes, i realize that the nhc will maintain the stronger winds for 1 or 2 advisories after reality.

Yeah you optain all that from one recon pass. :roll:

Please wait until the mission is thru before claiming the storm is weaker then it really is.

Cape Verde · #11 Postby **Cape Verde** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:27 pm

I want to know what keeps Ivan from taking a left. It looks as if it could go to the Yucatan as easily as heading to Florida.

#12 Postby **tailgater** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:28 pm

do yall think this westward trend by SOME of the models is because they think it will weaken further and not be guided by the same hieght winds

jagesq · #13 Postby **jagesq** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:28 pm

Maybe the dynomat guy already made his dump. :roll:

Website · #14 Postby **Brent** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:28 pm

Well the 940 mb is plenty low to support a solid Cat 4. 140-145 mph right now. If the pressure were above 950, I would say it probably was a Cat 3. :roll:

Derek Ortt · #15 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:29 pm

wasn't Dennis 1x1 the same person who said Frances would make landfall as a tropical storm?

#16 Postby **NateFLA** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:30 pm

There are two reasons I do not buy into all of this sudden weakening...

One: Ivan has really impressive outflow, much moreso than I remember from Frances as it was being sheared and began to weaken, and
Two: I do not see a decrease in convection / IR signature / water vapor and visible still looks very orgainzed. Conditions are not ideal for strengthening, so the fact that she is holding up visually is pretty scary.

#17 Postby **dhweather** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:32 pm

I'm not certain he's weakening, but it doens't look good - the NW half of the storm is warmer than the SE half on IR images.

He may not be weakening, but he won't strengthen anytime soon.

chris_fit · #18 Postby **chris_fit** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:32 pm

I'm totally not seeing shear.

Expect the pressure to be around 2-4mb lower by 5pm.

#19 Postby **NateFLA** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:32 pm

New Vortex shows drop to 937mb.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/URNT12.0409101931

NorthGaWeather · #20 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:33 pm

The TCHP is 50-100 kJ/cm2 higher ahead of Ivan. Opal went from a Cat 1 to a Cat 4 when the TCHP increased 30 kJ/cm2. Bret and Mitch did it when it increased 80 kJ/cm2.

Weakening

Weakening

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