Ridge will not back off

[LowMug]

Look at the following loop...it is starting to dig into central Cuba as well as eastern Florida.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html

[Deenac813]

What does that mean?

[calidoug]

Actually, there's a small ULL near the bahamas....

[jagesq]

yes what does that mean. I wish when someone made a good observation like that, they would continue on saying how that effects the hurricane. Many of us who aren't amateur meterologists but rather observers need a little help.

Thanks

[Cape Verde]

Looking at that, is there ANY chance in the world that Ivan could take a sharp <b>left-hand</b> turn at Cuba and head west? It certainly seems as if the vapor hits a fork in the road there.

[yoda]

Ok everyone.... calm down. We will see what Ivan does soon enough...

I'm sorry to hear that Low Mug and I hope the hurricane doesn't bring flooding to your house.

[Nimbus]

The subtropical ridge is starting to bridge with the atlantic ridge as forecast by some of the models.

There is an upper level low over texas that is forecast to roll east into the gulf developing a trough to steer Ivan north. It is also possible that the ULL over Texas will act to amplify the ridge over the eastern gulf tracking Ivan further west.

The subtropical ridge appears quite strong and may even wedge under the Texas ULL.

[~SirCane]

Looks like Ivan is heading more Westward now and may pass just South of Jamaica!

[mascpa]

Well that helps to explain Ivan's turn back toward the west.

[Nimbus]

The subtropical ridge got squeezed a little south and the westward motion may only be a temporary wobble.

You could have more confidence in the track if the forward motion were a little faster. Storms often move slow because they lack steering and can change direction unpredictably.

[Stormcenter]

The subtropical ridge got squeezed a little south and the westward motion may only be a temporary wobble.

You could have more confidence in the track if the forward motion were a little faster. Storms often move slow because they lack steering and can change direction unpredictably.

I agree Nimbus. It may or may not be just wobble.

[x-y-no]

That strong mid to upper level low at 30N is still trucking west at high speed. It''l be very much in the picture by this time tomorrow.

The fact that Ivan has slowed down but not deviated from his WNW track is testimony that the ridge to the north is still weakening.

It'll be interesting to see how the 18Z GFS initializes that. It does look like the heights may not have been knocked down quite as much as the GFS forecast, but it's awful hard (for me at least) to judge that from WV imagery alone.

[NorthGaWeather]

That strong mid to upper level low at 30N is still trucking west at high speed. It''l be very much in the picture by this time tomorrow.

The fact that Ivan has slowed down but not deviated from his WNW track is testimony that the ridge to the north is still weakening.

It'll be interesting to see how the 18Z GFS initializes that. It does look like the heights may not have been knocked down quite as much as the GFS forecast, but it's awful hard (for me at least) to judge that from WV imagery alone.

Maybe a testimony that its holding its on.

[dhweather]

Ivan sure does like making all of us look silly.

[x-y-no]

Maybe a testimony that its holding its on.

That what is, the ridge? I don't think so ... if the ridge were strong, I'd expect a faster motion from Ivan, and probably more westerly given the east-west orientation of the south side of the ridge above him.

No, he's fighting his way into a soft gradient, and that's what's slowing him down. I don't think there's much doubt the ridge is going to get knocked down. The question as usual is timing, and how much in the way of steering currents are left when that happens.

The model consensus track is at least as good as any other as far as I'm concerned. I can easily see this going anywhere from Naples to Appalachicola with fair probability. I don't see that he'll be pulled quickly north. My nagging doubt is regarding speed. I've got the notion the models might be too fast after crossing Jamaica. But whether that would mean that the door opens more for south Florida or just that he takes longer to get to west Florida I don't know.

[Nimbus]

The upper level low to the northeast of Ivan is definately a key player. (IMHO) a high will form between the ULL over Texas and the ULL moving west. The question is will Ivan be under it? The last couple frames of the water vapor imagery show the subtropical ridge pushing back north above Ivan but it is still a close call.

[rbaker]

looks to me like on wv imagery that ivan is moving wnw more than anything, and has since this am, reacting to the ridge building in from the atlantic. Also with the ridge to its nw with all the dry air, there will be only a gap of less resistance to go to which is in the fla vicinity. The only thing that could make it deviate is that gap to narrow and carry ivan more westerly into the yucatan.

[yankeelmbb]

so in other words we won't know what is going to happen until it comes off of jamaica and then until it comes off Cuba....

[LowMug]

so in other words we won't know what is going to happen until it comes off of jamaica and then until it comes off Cuba....

pretty much

[Nimbus]

Well apparantly the FSU run has picked up on the ridge so maybe we will know sooner.