Ivan Advisories

[NorthGaWeather]

150mph.

[nomolos]

they actually just said 240 km....or 150 mph

almost there, maybe by the time it makes landfall

[soonertwister]

I was just listening, and the NHC guy said 150 mph, a VERY STRONG category four.

5 knots short of cat-5!

(Correcting my post. 150 mph is 130 KTS, so 140 KTS is the NHC declared cat-5 wind speed. So another 10 KTS would be cat-5.)

[btsgmdad]

I'm sure I won't be the only one to post this, but isn't 155mph the top end of a Category 4.

[B-Bear]

NHC just said on the radio (Jamaica) that they are issuing an intermediate advisory increasing winds to 150 mph and forecasting landfall for just west of Kingston.

[jpigott]

is that east or west of the old GFS run

[Brent]

Yes. 156 is a Cat 5.

[nomolos]

the nhc guy obviouslly takes this storm very seriously! its sad that many on that island dont.

[Praxus]

Its fascinating and somewhat morbid listening to that jamaican webcast.

[Collier Canetracker]

MW, can you give us a hint of what you mean about your thoughts on 83W.... Just a little hint?

[MWatkins]

Always great to get your insight Mike! What do you think of the Flight Winds not reflecting the pressure drop. There has been a rather heated discussion of this on another post.

It takes time for the wind to carch up to the pressure drop...it can take a few hours at least. Also...and I'm sure that somebody has pointed this out...it's not like the hurricane hunters can measure every point in a storm at once. The strongest winds may have been moving around a bit as the eye redeveloped. I can assure you that they will find stronger winds before they leave.

MW

[das8929]

Wow, looks like my prediction is true.

[calidoug]

The eye, IMO will be well east and north of Negril. I don't see it west of Montego Bay.

[Matthew5]

This is going to make Gilbert in 1988 seems like a cat2. Why because Gilbert when it hit Jamaica it was only a 960 millibar hurricane. It was not intill afterwards it bombed! Jamaica is going to be leveled to the ground.

[Pebbles]

OK...my boo boo...very sorry for misinforming!
Very very sorry for my misinformation..listening to two things at once! Usually NOT one to misinform! I am just extremely worried for Jamaica right now

[cloud_galaxy]

Zinc roofs flying now, a caller from Halfway Tree, north of Kingston, said.

[canegrl04]

Unfortunately,the NHC is tragically right Many are going to die unnecessarily becuz of their apathetic attitude.

[das8929]

The slight shear to the north that was messing with the outflow. You can see it clearly on the infrared.

[soonertwister]

AFTER leaving Jamaica Gilbert's pressure dropped 70 mb in 24 hours!

[MWatkins]

MW, can you give us a hint of what you mean about your thoughts on 83W.... Just a little hint?

I believe the furthest possible west the hurricane will get (over water) is 83W...plus .5 degrees for error. This basially suggests that most of the FL peninsula is under the gun. Not revoultionary I know...but I have not ever bought the central Gulf idea...an I'm pulling the furthest west point back from 85W that I had yesterday.

I may have to abandon that idea if certian things happen...like the hurriane making it past 83 west...but that's what I have for now.

MW