NEW INFORMATION - The FSU Super Ensemble Model Trends WEST.

[Storminole]

I think the rumor started from a poorly worded 5am EDT Discussion.

In it the NHC said:

THE NOGAPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
ARE FURTHER WEST AND ALSO SHOW A TRACK NEAR JAMAICA AND THEN OVER
WESTERN CUBA...BUT THEN MOVE IVAN OVER THE GULF TO THE WEST OF
FLORIDA.

I MAYBE WRONG, but I think they meant western Florida and not "west of Florida".

Myself, I'm fairly convinced that by "over the Gulf to the west of Florida" the NHC meant over a northbound track over the far eastern GOM, and to the west of the Florida peninsula. You're right that it's poorly worded, since technically "to the west of Florida" means Mobile, AL or further west, which is extremely unlikely.

[alicia-w]

Please consider my rude "Jason Kelly is a weenie" statement publicly retracted. Mea culpa.

Mea culpa, Jason.

[ObsessedMiami]

So the way I read this board is.... every forecaster from Tallahassee west has this as a GOM storm (you know, that old gut feeling) while every forecaster from Tampa east sees it tracking east. Is that pretty much the consensus from perusing these posts? We talk about the FSU supercomputer removing bias... lets run this board thru it. With all due respect to the community of dedicated and caring amateurs and more or less professional mets, coming on here 72 hours + in anticipation of a major US landfall is a little like listening to Football Pool forecasters picking games based on trends. Everyone has data supporting their conclusion. I think that concerned newbies like me can get whatever they are jonesing for, whether it be fear or validation.

[rjgator]

Typical Seminole behavior. Last I checked the Florida State University was a public school that is funded by not only its students but all tax payers of Florida. What not only gives them the right to hold any of the schools research data private. I think someone should write to Jeb Bush and maybe he could donate $10.00 a month for a host site to upload the model to.

[rjgator]

Typical Seminole behavior. Last I checked the Florida State University was a public school that is funded by not only its students but all tax payers of Florida. What not only gives them the right to hold any of the schools research data private. I think someone should write to Jeb Bush and maybe he could donate $10.00 a month for a host site to upload the model to.

[hesperhys]

Typical Seminole behavior. Last I checked the Florida State University was a public school that is funded by not only its students but all tax payers of Florida. What not only gives them the right to hold any of the schools research data private. I think someone should write to Jeb Bush and maybe he could donate $10.00 a month for a host site to upload the model to.

The link I posted above indicates that private sources contributed to the purchase of computer hardware for this project... are they paying salaries of all those involved as well... I don't know. Is the public source of funding considering the results "classified"?

I'm a biologist, not a meteorologist. In biological research, all results/data are (eventually) shared with all concerned (i.e. the public). It used to be this way, at least. The "patenting" of (discovered, not invented) genes has stifled free exchange of information in even this once blissfully overlooked domain.

[catzmeow]

Private grant dollars for research frequently come with strings attached. This "behavior" certainly isn't limited to Noles. These private research dollars add tens of millions of dollars of money to the school's budget each year, and give the students opportunities for research that are unduplicated.

Catz
(Whose brother is a physics major at FSU...home of the joint public/private high magnetics lab doing cutting-edge research in physics that will ultimately benefit people around the world in hundreds or thousands of ways)

[hesperhys]

Private grant dollars for research frequently come with strings attached. (...)

Indeed they do... But if private dollars are not paying for every cent of the research involved (including all salaries and overhead), can the results legitimately be kept out of the public domain?

[gatorbabe79]

I am sure if UF had a superensemble thay would be sharing it for the greater good of all.

[30N90W]

I was just posting some info that I thought the board would be interested in! The original discussion layed out the players on the field and what impact they could have on Ivan. That is the part that I thought had the most merit.

As we have seen the models are only that, MODELS. They are feed data from some point in time and due the best they can do with it. Sometimes it is refreshing to hear analysis from someone who is schooled and experienced in laying out the players and baseing an opinion on what could happen and what signals to look out for.

My original post was nothing more than information. It could be the wrong opinion but it could be closer to home than some people wish for!

Happy my first post generate such a healthy discussion.

[Ixolib]

I was just posting some info that I thought the board would be interested in! The original discussion layed out the players on the field and what impact they could have on Ivan. That is the part that I thought had the most merit.

As we have seen the models are only that, MODELS. They are feed data from some point in time and due the best they can do with it. Sometimes it is refreshing to hear analysis from someone who is schooled and experienced in laying out the players and baseing an opinion on what could happen and what signals to look out for.

My original post was nothing more than information. It could be the wrong opinion but it could be closer to home than some people wish for!

Happy my first post generate such a healthy discussion.

No matter what else might be viewed as factual or not in this thread, your first post CERTAINLY did generate some great discussion!! Welcome.

[hesperhys]

"As we have seen the models are only that, MODELS. "

Not to put too fine a point on it, but the FSU "Superensemble" is A METAmodel...