I had My Doubts about Ivan Hitting....

[rtd2]

Jamaica...I posted earlier I thought he would Miss the island to the south and latest IR indicates this may happen....Eyewall could brush land but not enough to disrupt it!


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[huricanwatcher]

um........ the north quaddrant of the storm is bearing down on them... and listening to the stream......... they are under the gun.. MISS...... look again... and rethink your post

[TyphoonTim]

The shape of Ivan on the latest frame of the WV loop is very scary. It's regained a more uniform circular shape, also deeper red on IR. Hopefully the eye will continue to stay south of Jamaica, but nevertheless they are in for a devastating hit. My prayers go out to them,

[NorthGaWeather]

The storm is almost moving 270. Jamaica looks to be dealt a big blow but Ivan is moving further South then expected.

[Guest]

If you look closely at the last frame it takes a wobble back to the north.

[Wnghs2007]

If you look closely at the last frame it takes a wobble back to the north.

Its been wobbling North and West for a while now. I do believe MWatkins was very wrong in his 315. I say at the most 300 but probally most likely 290. And this will skim Jamaica man.

[lilbump3000]

That wasnt a jog to the north. Its just the eye instead of being in an west to east look like it was on the 00:45, on the 1:15 its changed to a north to south look. Now on the 1:45 it should change back to looking like an west to east.

[rtd2]

Quote "um........ the north quaddrant of the storm is bearing down on them... and listening to the stream......... they are under the gun.. MISS...... look again... and rethink your post"



UHMMMMM okay....BY miss I meant AN "OFFCIAL" landfall... I agree they will get EXTERME conditions BUT WILL THEY expirience the Eyewall? I dont think so...NO L/F IN jamaica... Track is a little south for that!

[huricanwatcher]

we will see...... now wont we

[huricanwatcher]

and for their sakes ..... I HOPE YOU ARE CORRECT>>>

[feederband]

regardless there are people in real bad shape right now in jamaica.

[calidoug]

Jamaica will not be missed to the south. The storm is not moving at 270. The storm is not left of the NHC track.

The eye looks to be heading for "edgewater" on the south-central coast. The eyewall is probably just now reaching parts of the island.

[NorthGaWeather]

Have you been watching the Satellite Cali, obviously not. In chat one of the Mets posted an image and it was moving 280 at best. The storm is right on NHC track and will move South of the island.

[rtd2]

Lets all Keep Jamaica in there thoughts And I will be looking for an "OFFICIAL" landfall declaration later! that will put this to rest!

[Agua]

The thing appears to be stairstepping. It's right on NHC track, presently, after having gone north of track for a little.

[calidoug]

The NHC track does not have it missing the island. And as I said, the storm is not moving at 270.

[Agua]

Last six hours, it looks about 290.

[Anonymous]

calidoug....where do you live?

[rbaker]

it's so close to s coast of jamaica that whether the eye crosses the coast or parallels the coast is inmaterial at this point, because hurricane force winds are racking the southern coast as we speak.