Extreme Jog to the West

[LowMug]

This could or could not bode well for the people of Jamaica or could have a major impact on the future track...pretty much the strangest "wobble" I have seen yet.

[calidoug]

I don't see anything "extreme" about it.

The stair-stepping continues.

At least it looks like Kingston will be spared the eye-wall.

Not so good for Montego Bay, though.

[nomolos]

that was weird. maybe its decided to spare jamaica and just wobble around the island?

[das8929]

Its a wobble. Expect a more NW wobble soon.

[Guest]

10 bucks about three more of these treads pop up...But yes I noticed that as well.

[LowMug]

I don't see anything "extreme" about it.

The stair-stepping continues.

At least it looks like Kingston will be spared the eye-wall.

Not so good for Montego Bay, though.

You must not have looked at the 00:45 floater loop then...because it is extreme...and it is stair-stepping but at this point in the game it is crucial to the impacts on the island and the future especially if it stays out over water or makes landfall

[spaceisland]

A possible explanation of the "extreme jog": on the IR loop I looked at , 2345Z and 0015z were missing, so it goes from 2315 directly to 0045, making the jog look more extreme.

[LowMug]

A possible explanation of the "extreme jog": on the IR loop I looked at , 2345Z and 0015z were missing, so it goes from 2315 directly to 0045, making the jog look more extreme.

They are on mine which makes it all the more extreme

[yoda]

See we will in the 11 PM advisory where it is located, yes yes. Argue we must not. Watch closely we must yes yes.

(Sorry for my Yoda rant )

[spaceisland]

Yoda... I like your "rant!" Yoda wisdom is good wisdom!
BTW, This is my 100th post, and I dedicate it to all the folks I work with here in Brevard County (school teachers) who are still without power, and expected to come to school on Monday...
... and to the good people of the islands who will take this time to pray and show caring to each other, in defiance of the looting, panic and greed.

[frederic79]

In QuarkXPress, I've placed the Floater 1 jpeg image and positioned a line from Ivan's Thursday's 8:30 pm position out past Jamaica at exactly 299 degrees, not quite 300. Ivan has moved a tad south of that line since then til the 1:15 UTC image current. There have been wobbles both ways, but Ivan remains on a true 299-300 heading, according to my graph. The question, to me, is how much longer will it continue? Every NHC forecast track except the last one or two showed Ivan tracking over or even north of Jamaica, not skirting the south of the island.

[Sanibel]

When the strong core hits mountainous land it adds friction to the half of the storm dragging over it. The southern half is still over water and has no friction. Because of this the southern half has lower pressure and faster winds in the left half of the storm. The impact to the storm's structure on the land side causes the lower pressure on the intact side to pull the storm away. It does this because the free wheeling overwater side sucks the storm in its direction because it is creating lower pressure by being unobstructed...

The same thing happened with Sanibel when Charley passed by...

[Guest]

Last Frame looks like a jog back to the north.

[NorthGaWeather]

The storm is moving due west right now. The WNW motion should resume in a few hours.

[dennis1x1]

almost amazingly and maybe a minor miracle...but there has been no northern progress of Ivan for 1.5 hours now.........based on this there is now a legitimate chance of no eyewall landfall on jamaica.

and while it has become pc to say "a hurricane is not a point, its a large area...blah blah blah"....the extreme destruction is a very very small and localized area directly in the eyewall...

[Lockhart]

Personally, I'm amazed at the sudden Western jog. Ivan looked like he was really gathering steam toward wiping out Jamaica in a NW slash, then all of a sudden, he's bypassed almost half the island. Every extra mile probably saves lives (and many homes) in Jamaica. Great news.

[MWatkins]

10 bucks about three more of these treads pop up...But yes I noticed that as well.

I'll take the over. And there is a direct relationship between the longitude of the poster and the amount of westward movement in the last 12 hours:

Here's the scale:

>90 west: 270
88 to 90: 275
85 to 88: 280
83 to 85: 285
81.5 to 83: Seems like folks in western FL are being pretty reasonable....
81.5 to 79.5: 325

The actual overall motion...despite the last 30 min frame...remains between 300 and 305.

MW

[dennis1x1]

come on mw.....30 mins? still holding on to that? its been 2 hours of due west now......while having no effect on the 2-5 day forecast...the immediate forecast for jamaica is completely tied to that last 2 hours.

[tw861]

10 bucks about three more of these treads pop up...But yes I noticed that as well.

I'll take the over. And there is a direct relationship between the longitude of the poster and the amount of westward movement in the last 12 hours:

Here's the scale:

>90 west: 270
88 to 90: 275
85 to 88: 280
83 to 85: 285
81.5 to 83: Seems like folks in western FL are being pretty reasonable....
81.5 to 79.5: 325

The actual overall motion...despite the last 30 min frame...remains between 300 and 305.

MW

Hmmm...

[NorthGaWeather]

10 bucks about three more of these treads pop up...But yes I noticed that as well.

I'll take the over. And there is a direct relationship between the longitude of the poster and the amount of westward movement in the last 12 hours:

Here's the scale:

>90 west: 270
88 to 90: 275
85 to 88: 280
83 to 85: 285
81.5 to 83: Seems like folks in western FL are being pretty reasonable....
81.5 to 79.5: 325

The actual overall motion...despite the last 30 min frame...remains between 300 and 305.

MW

Mike I didn't want to say it but honestly what are you looking at. You claim others are -removed- and it looks liek your doing the same. Are you serious are just lightening the mood with some jokes. If you can't see that almost due west motion the past few hours then I'll pay for an eye doctors visit for you.