Ivan Advisories

[Buck]

Brent pretty much summed that one up.

[Anonymous]

Almost exactly?

[dennis1x1]

straight from the tom and jerry..err terry school of -removed-.

[Stormcenter]

Seems as though may not get pulled in and make actual landfall?????

...almost looks like it's purposely avoiding the northward trend and going around the land masses. There was a post earlier about the land affecting the storm when it's half on, half off. Here' that hi res loop:http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rickk/ivan.html

It does look like that.

[Fodie77]

...after plowing Cuba as a 5, according to local Tampa channel 8 11p forecast...

That is incorrect. The Monday Evening position is NW of Key West as a Cat 3 and then the Tuesday Evening position is just inland between St. Marks and Cedar Key as a Cat 3. No Cat 4 indicated.

Maybe that's just the local mets. forecast. It's not like their forecast has to be identical to that of the NHC.

[mobilebay]

The GFS called the Frances Bahamas stall 3-4 days out.

Correct, it did call that...

[dennis1x1]

cayman shouldnt need as much luck...in fact it would take some extremely unlucky events to cause them trouble based on current forecast track..

[melhow]

again...not my "wishcast"...local (and good) NBC met team forecast...

[Brent]

Yes... I wasn't blaming you. Probably either an error or he's just making up his own forecast. I didn't want to get you confused and wanted to say what the NHC officially said.

[das8929]

This is actually worse news. Jamaica still gets the awful winds, but the hurricane now hardly weakens. Expect a Cat 5 for Cuba landfall.

[bwstg]

...after plowing Cuba as a 5, according to local Tampa channel 8 11p forecast...

That is incorrect. The Monday Evening position is NW of Key West as a Cat 3 and then the Tuesday Evening position is just inland between St. Marks and Cedar Key as a Cat 3. No Cat 4 indicated.

Maybe that's just the local mets. forecast. It's not like their forecast has to be identical to that of the NHC.

But its a forecast nevertheless. They are meterologists too. I don't see any pro met icons on anyone's name.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Probably temporary, but, it's good to see the system is moving West and hopefully, it will miss Jamaica altogether. However, they are experiencing the eyewall. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Scott_inVA]

I know some will yell a wobble, but it has been a big wobble for 4 hours now. It looks as if Ivan's center will stay just along the south shore of Jamaica or catch the very SW corner. If this present movement continues overnight the forecasted track will have to come west.

No wobble at this moment (11:09PM EDT) and has evidenced NO (zippo) northern component for nearly 3 hours

Scott

[Brent]

Its following the NHC Path almost exactly..

LOL

I have the projected paths saved if you want proof.

Last night they were bringing over Eastern Jamaica(east of Kingston) and then it gradually shifted west, to Kingston this morning, and then to just hitting the SW coast this evening.

[Foladar]

straight from the tom and jerry..err terry school of -removed-.

Speaking of -removed-: when's the shear hitting? now? even though it's getting stronger? I don't think your one to call a wishcaster.

[justwatching]

As soon as that NE low weakened and stopped sucking the energy out of Ivan Ivan instantly started to strengthen. Ivan's outer bands are making complete rotations and are not being interfered and swept away by the jet stream and that is allowing the storm to increase the rotation speed and seems to allow the storm to breath and build.

[mobilebay]

from the 8pm to the 11pm, the direction has been 308 degrees acording to the fixes.

the Last "fix" I can find is 2317 or 6:13 PM CDT. So there is no way to come up with that number. Anyone can see it has wobbled more westwerd in the last few hours. If it had not it would be over Jamaica now.

[melhow]

yup....thanks for the clarification. NHC....Channel 8....Got it...

[Brent]

straight from the tom and jerry..err terry school of -removed-.

Speaking of -removed-: when's the shear hitting? now? even though it's getting stronger? I don't think your one to call a wishcaster.

[calidoug]

Jamaica is hardly being "missed". The northern portion of the eyewall is raking the south coast, and it is likely to get worse.