New synoptic setup...

[ericinmia]

I am not going to explain this in detail, or add my opinion; i am tired of endlessly justifying myself through needless arguments to a select few on this board. Here is the data and a little understanding of what is occurring for those that may not have it, or understand it.

-The Bermuda high has merged with the azores high
-The ULL in the atlantic is disturbing westerly flow in the southernmost part of the bermuda high
-The high over texas, and the gulf had merged with the bermuda high
-The trough is weakening the bridge between the two highs above...

The trough should break through the "bridge" between the two high's, the ULL over the atlantic is moving west, weakening the far extension of the bermuda high that is currently over florida.

Here are the two latest maps, see what you will...

2100UTC Sept, 10th
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... dlm5-1.GIF

0000UTC Sept, 11th
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm5.GIF

post away...
-Eric

[mobilebay]

OK. Does that explain the more westwerd trend of the 00z GFS through 42 Hours.

[Windfall]

Eric, you're posts have been supported with meteorological support. You're reasoning is more profound and insightful than the wobble watcher's scope of knowledge. I have noticed how people from Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi keep trying to shift the track more westward...hmmm?....-removed-?

Anyways, I also wonder if Mr. Derek Ortt has a degree in meteorology or if he is still in the process of obtaining one. His track is way too far left, even left of the NHC's conservative track.

Keep preaching the truth. Hopefully, people will stop trying to "Trending west" with Ivan!

[mobilebay]

Eric, you're posts have been supported with meteorological support. You're reasoning is more profound and insightful than the wobble watcher's scope of knowledge. I have noticed how people from Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi keep trying to shift the track more westward...hmmm?....-removed-?

Anyways, I also wonder if Mr. Derek Ortt has a degree in meteorology or if he is still in the process of obtaining one. His track is way too far left, even left of the NHC's conservative track.

Keep preaching the truth. Hopefully, people will stop trying to "Trending west" with Ivan!

Please Quit this!!! Every model has shifted west. The GFS is even further west, The00Z noGaps is further west, the canadian is further west. The GFDL is further west. The Florida state model is further west.

[PTPatrick]

Trending west is HARDLY a made up thing here...Almost every model has trended west. NOGAPS may have been an outlier but it appears to be on the right track and the other models are only now catching up. Also Canadian has moved west. Looks to me like South FL has about as much chance as New Orleans at this point. So much for the Miami hit, although it seems enough of you guys are hoping for it.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Actually, I get, from reading, -removed- from Windfall this storm to Miami.....

[mobilebay]

Actually, I get, from reading, -removed- from Windfall this storm to Miami.....

There are several. However, the ones that do it (not naming anyone), are the first to call everyone else a Wishcaster.

[Windfall]

Sean, don't be a hypocrite. You take delight in insisting a shift leftwards. I bet you're going to forecast Ivan to slam New Orleans tomorrow even though none of the models take it to NEW ORLEANS! And the models WILL CHANGE. You are too short-sighted. You need to look at the upcoming changes in weather patterns.

When Derek Ortt disregards the models (he's done this before!), no one cares as long as it's shifted left. What is this....double standards? Don't believe me....look at this.....

Here is what Derek has to say..."Dennis,

Do you really think I care which models show excitement? I dont give a crap about the output. "

[ericinmia]

This is exactly the sad state of this board i was refering too. I did not post anything other than some maps, and generally explain what the maps were showing; why do you have to turn every post of mine, and many others into an argument?

If you really care to show maturity you all should quit it! It is getting very old.
-Eric

[mobilebay]

Sean, don't be a hypocrite. You take delight in insisting a shift leftwards. I bet you're going to forecast Ivan to slam New Orleans tomorrow even though none of the models take it to NEW ORLEANS! And the models WILL CHANGE. You are too short-sighted. You need to look at the upcoming changes in weather patterns.

When Derek Ortt disregards the models (he's done this before!), no one cares as long as it's shifted left. What is this....double standards? Don't believe me....look at this.....

Here is what Derek has to say..."Dennis,

Do you really think I care which models show excitement? I dont give a crap about the output. "

You sure are taking this left switch in model runs personaly. :roll:

[mobilebay]

This is exactly the sad state of this board i was refering too. I did not post anything other than some maps, and generally explain what the maps were showing; why do you have to turn every post of mine, and many others into an argument?

If you really care to show maturity you all should quit it! It is getting very old.
-Eric

because everything you show is some eason why you think its going to hit South Florida. (or close to it).

[Anonymous]

Lookout Cedar Key/Tampa

[Sean in New Orleans]

Settle down, Windfall...I'm a cool dude. Where in this map do you see a Florida Peninsula hit? http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html The patterns are changing quicker than the models. I'm IM'ing right now with a couple of private mets who are employed for the oil companies in the Gulf and concerns have increased dramatically over the last 18 hours for the Gulf. Landfall projections have changed westerly with the FSU Ensemble dramatically (unfortunately, this isn't available online). I don't think it's coming to New Orleans. However, a Mobile landfall wouldn't really surprise me. I can't, at this time see the system striking anywhere on the Florida peninsula and alot of other mets out there are starting to agree with this scenario, as well. I've gotten over 30 emails since noon with all kind of stuff relating to a recent western pattern change.

[Guest]

He's going to Central America for a while since the Jamaicans pushed him away.

[MSRobi911]

I live in Mississippi and certainly do not want Ivan to come my way, BUT, if there is a change in direction, as is commonly the case in ALL hurricanes, I want to know about it so that I can prepare my house for the onslaught of water that I know will come with it.

Lay off Eric, everyone is entitled to his opinion, even if you don't like it!

[Guest]

He's going to Central America for a while since the Jamaicans pushed him away.

never quoted myself



i crack myself up

[ericinmia]

This is exactly the sad state of this board i was refering too. I did not post anything other than some maps, and generally explain what the maps were showing; why do you have to turn every post of mine, and many others into an argument?

If you really care to show maturity you all should quit it! It is getting very old.
-Eric

because everything you show is some eason why you think its going to hit South Florida. (or close to it).

When you are able to show me where i outlined that this was going to south fla in this post... i will leave this board for good!!!
I simply showed a couple maps... and labeled the features.
The desception lies in YOUR head. In my head i believe this storm is going to go possibly into the panhandle under the current setup. You look at my name and infer what you want based upon data i have posted. You are the one that has been labled a wish caster on this board. You are the one that antagonizes others, and post whores. STOP COMMENTING ON ME, AND ACTUALLY POST REAL DATA! or IDEAS. I don't care for your endless tirade... i feel as though i am dealing with a little child that will only have his way, who has not yet developed sense.

Once again i ask you... please stop post whoring, please stop antagonizing. If you don't have something of worth to the community to post, than it doesn't belong. Create your own website post whore there all you want, degrade others all you want... but that should NOT be permitted here. Contribute worthily to the board, or stay quiet!
I am appaled at how the mods/admins on this site allow such worthless postwhoring, and antagonizing to occur. For this board not having some worthy opinions and data, i would have left already.

Truly is sad.
-Eric

[Guest]

did you all notice im trying to change the subject to my crazy Yucatan hit!

[mobilebay]

This is exactly the sad state of this board i was refering too. I did not post anything other than some maps, and generally explain what the maps were showing; why do you have to turn every post of mine, and many others into an argument?

If you really care to show maturity you all should quit it! It is getting very old.
-Eric

because everything you show is some eason why you think its going to hit South Florida. (or close to it).

When you are able to show me where i outlined that this was going to south fla in this post... i will leave this board for good!!!
I simply showed a couple maps... and labeled the features.
Thank you for those kind words.
The desception lies in YOUR head. In my head i believe this storm is going to go possibly into the panhandle under the current setup. You look at my name and infer what you want based upon data i have posted. You are the one that has been labled a wish caster on this board. You are the one that antagonizes others, and post whores. STOP COMMENTING ON ME, AND ACTUALLY POST REAL DATA! or IDEAS. I don't care for your endless tirade... i feel as though i am dealing with a little child that will only have his way, who has not yet developed sense.

Once again i ask you... please stop post whoring, please stop antagonizing. If you don't have something of worth to the community to post, than it doesn't belong. Create your own website post whore there all you want, degrade others all you want... but that should NOT be permitted here. Contribute worthily to the board, or stay quiet!
I am appaled at how the mods/admins on this site allow such worthless postwhoring, and antagonizing to occur. For this board not having some worthy opinions and data, i would have left already.

Truly is sad.
-Eric

Thank you for those kind words. God bless You.

[ericinmia]

Here is the newest image.....
The high over florida has backed off... only the bridge remains...

That low really took a toll on the high. I was looking into the models, and they don't show that low being that strong, at any period in their runs... let alone be in that far of a south west postion.
It will be interesting to see what unfolds tomorrow.
The high of texas has also strengthend and pushed far east... almost to AL.
We should monitor the progrss of this for it can halt the storms ability to go west... and it may stall temporarily due to lack of steering currents; with the hot waters in the gulf that could be a very disasterous situation.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm5.GIF
-Eric