Brief Midnight Update From Local New Orleans Met

[Sean in New Orleans]

Here is a brief midnight update from a local meteorologist here in New Orleans--David Bernard. Our mets on WWL-TV post messages to the locals on the television stations weather forum several times a day that are generally pretty detailed (more than you would hear on TV). Here is a brief update from David--sounds like he's hitting the sack. Here is the link, to keep things legal...

http://www.wwltv.com/cgi-bin/bi/discuss ... apsed&sb=5

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Ivan is moving around the island of Jamaica. Storms do this all the time. In fact, I believe Charley did the same thing. They often bob north or south of it. At any rate, that isn't the issue. The issue, this evening is where the storm goes.

Models are trending west big time tonight. Again, as I have been stating, it is VERY UNUSUAL for a storm to move into the Big Bend of Florida or north of Tampa Bay from the South and West. Therefore, the eventual landfall will either be south of Tampa like Charley or on the Florida Panhandle...possibly Mobile.

Tonight's runs are reflecting that. The GFS is still to the east, but not near as much as 24 hours ago.

This also means there might be less land interaction.

A major word of caution, just as John noted earlier today, the steering is very weak in 48 hours and any model solution has to be viewed with some skepticism.

One argument for the panhandle might be the ridge over Bahamas being just a bit stronger. The Canadian has been insisting that a piece of the ridge was going to pinch off the upper low over the Atlantic. Time will tell.

Good night.



David Bernard
Meteorologist
WWL-TV
1024 North Rampart Street
New Orleans, LA 70116

[~SirCane]

Very Interesting