Ivan Advisories

logybogy · #4041 Postby **logybogy** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:06 am

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_09.gif

goodlife · #4042 Postby **goodlife** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:07 am

it might have been an error..but Dave Schwartz definitely said it..

#4043 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:09 am

YES he absolutely said that at the 1:50am tropical report...he said he just got the information and had a piece of paper in his hand. He said that they would discuss it at the top of the hour, but then at the top of the hour, they reverted back to playing an older loop, not including the 2am advisory (the girl was doing it) and they haven't said anything about it or had a retraction yet...

btsgmdad · #4044 Postby **btsgmdad** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:11 am

They probably immediately pulled him off the air and fired him!

wasup254 · #4045 Postby **wasup254** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:12 am

It seems that Ivan is getting a bit pushed down by a high pressure area, it seems to be digging sw all day and might this be the cause of the westward jog?

If it slows down will that make it less or more of a chance to go north?

Thanks

mobilebay · #4046 Postby **mobilebay** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:17 am

Seen that. Looks like their are two main concesus areas. One near the big bend GFDL,UKMET,BAMM. However, the others are near Panama City or just West NOGAPS, ETA, Canadian. waiting on the EURO.

#4047 Postby **crazycajuncane** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:21 am

Also have the eye missing Jamaica! That is some temporary good news.

hurricanefreak1988 · #4048 Postby **hurricanefreak1988** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:21 am

Isn't that odd how Ivan's eye turned west all of a sudden to miss a Jamaican landfall. Not that that matters or anything because they're still getting hammered, but I thought that was pretty interesting.

dennis1x1 · #4049 Postby **dennis1x1** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:24 am

not that it matters?

it matters.....ALOT.....

was it geography or fluctuations in the high pressure to the north (storm did seem to "sandwich" at the same time).....hmm...someone just got a nice topic for a masters thesis..

again.....as for the "it didnt matter".....lives were saved and devastation avoided..

~SirCane · #4050 Postby **~SirCane** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:25 am

I know-just gotta keep watching it. : )

#4051 Postby **crazycajuncane** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:25 am

Roofs are being blown off and houses are demolished.

Devestation is clearly there.

#4052 Postby **tronbunny** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:25 am

anyone else notice that something's missing from that track map?
I read the 00Z BAMM,BAMD,A98E, and LBAR off the ftp site, and I don't see the BAMM and BAMD on the map.
Hmmmm.

Praxus · #4053 Postby **Praxus** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:27 am

It matters big time. They ended up getting 75 mph winds
instead of 150 !

dennis1x1 · #4054 Postby **dennis1x1** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:27 am

no comparison to what would have happened......none......of course there will be major damage..as cat 2 winds probably hit kingston (at least in gusts) and the building codes (lack of) are well documented...but the difference between that and cat 4 winds hitting.....not comparable to say the least.

Lockhart · #4055 Postby **Lockhart** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:28 am

The devastation was *hugely* less than if it had been a direct hit. They *incredibly* lucky. Let's just hope not many people get killed in the looting they say is going on in Kingston.

hurricanefreak1988 · #4056 Postby **hurricanefreak1988** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:29 am

Well the reason I said that is because the eye was so close anyway they are likely already feeling the worst effects of it. I could be wrong though, I was just mentioning it.

dennis1x1 · #4057 Postby **dennis1x1** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:30 am

yes...the eye was close (came to within about 30 miles of kingston)...but the cat 4 winds are in a very very small area directly around the center.......

GNWeather · #4058 Postby **GNWeather** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:41 am

This is no hoax!

455
URNT12 KNHC 110612
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/0612Z
B. 17 DEG 22 MIN N
77 DEG 35 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2425 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 020 DEG 138 KT
G. 290 DEG 016 NM
H. 923 MB
I. 10 C/ 3073 M
J. 17 C/ 3052 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO12-40
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1.0 NM
P. AF963 1809A IVAN OB 09
MAX FL WIND 138 KT W QUAD 0607Z.

;

#4059 Postby **Fego** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:46 am

I read this report and I share it with you all folks...

Ok folks it is 12:30am Saturday morning and Ivan is howling up a storm ... no pun intended! There are sounds outside that make gang wars and gun fights seem tolerable. The winds have definitely picked up here in Montego Bay and things like trees have learnt to walk freely. No vehicles on the road at this time, minimal rain it actually comes in waves of medium drizzles. The wind however, is constant, consistent and makes the Gilbert of 1988 seem as if it was a whirlwind by comparison ... the fact that this is all happening at night, without power does not make it any easier to bear.

In summary, I honestly can only write from what I hear outside, and from the sounds it doesn't sound like I will see much of anything in the morning. I can say that billboards that were in view of my house are gone with the wind. My car alarm has gone off numerous times just from the sheer force of the wind but I guess 140mph winds will do that to any vehicle!

The news has just indicated that Ivan has reduced its traverse speed to 17kmh and that it should become a CCAT5 hurricane before it actually makes landfall. I should note that with all the noise and wind and all I have mentioned here, the storm is still about 90 miles way from montego Bay ... so in a sense its only just begun!

For the persons who asked earlier about the hotels in Montego Bay, at this time I can just say that if they are by the sea, then they are going to be closed for a little while after Ivan is gone. The waves coming into Mobay were not small when the wind was lower, and now that it has really picked up I would imagine that the waves have also grown somewhat.

The scientist in me wants to say that Ivan is the perfect example of a well composed hurricane system ... a beautiful storm, on the other hand, my human side will ask what gate of hell it escaped from.

Anon
Richard

goodlife · #4060 Postby **goodlife** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:50 am

Thanks for the update...stay safe!!
What type of storm surge are you guys expected to have??

Ivan Advisories

UPDATED UKMET - BIG SHIFT WEST

high pressure to Ivan's north

Ivan rejects Jamaica!

923MB Pressure at 2:12AM Recon!

Ivan vs Jamaica: report at 12:30am

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