Ridge will not back off

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charleston_hugo_veteran
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#21 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Fri Sep 10, 2004 4:34 pm

What would be the reason it would NOT go into the atlantic at this point! Since it is going a little more right into Jamaica??
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Nimbus
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#22 Postby Nimbus » Fri Sep 10, 2004 4:41 pm

That is a trochoidal wobble I doubt if it will become a trend. With a little luck the storm may wobble back WNW and just brush the southwest coast. The storm would have to maintain a heading of 305 degrees to actually have the eye go inland over the island.
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#23 Postby Nimbus » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:28 am

Looks like kingston lucked out, the ridge held overnight and the eye passed to the south. This morning you can clearly see a rotation over Cuba where a high developed. We expected this high to form between the trough over the western gulf and the large ULL to Ivans NE per our discussion.

The subtropical ridge is still holding its own against the trough over the western gulf. The models are beginning to respond to the stronger ridge and leftward initialization by tracking the storm further west.

In a day or two we should get a better handle on how much steering the gulf trough will provide. The subtropical ridge will either continue to expand and wedge against the trough or the trough will lift out.
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#24 Postby birdwomn » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:56 am

Nimbus wrote:In a day or two we should get a better handle on how much steering the gulf trough will provide. The subtropical ridge will either continue to expand and wedge against the trough or the trough will lift out.


And that is the question everyone in FL and along the GOM would like the answer to, is it not? You summed it up nicely here.

Meanwhile, we watch and wait, and make our best educated and uneducated guesses, while hoping for the best for everyone. :)
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