Pinpoint Eye Now

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B-Bear
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Pinpoint Eye Now

#1 Postby B-Bear » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:40 am

About to undergo another ERC, I bet.
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canegrl04
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#2 Postby canegrl04 » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:44 am

OMG :eek: :eek: :eek:

Ivan could be 170mph by the time he enters the Gulf
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B-Bear
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#3 Postby B-Bear » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:54 am

Well, I do see a rather worrisome potential here.

While undergoing his ERC yesterday, Ivan began to get into some unfavorable conditions, entraining dry air from Hispaniola. This disruption appeared to cause his eye wall to open up during the erc, and the open eye wall caused his pressure to go up to the 940s. Disite this setback, he still intensified to borderline cat 5 status before reaching Jamaica with a pressure ~920.

So now it will be interesting to keep an eye on Ivan's pressure throughout this ERC. If the eye wall doesn't rupture and the outter eye wall remains intact throughout the ERC, he may not experience a significant pressure increase. Add to that the fact that Ivan is going to be tranversing over some astronomically warm SSTs with little wind shear, and I see a potential for some explosive development after he finishes this ERC.
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TyphoonTim
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#4 Postby TyphoonTim » Sat Sep 11, 2004 7:23 am

Anyone notice what looks like a bunch of dry air pushing south over Cuba on the latest WV loop? This seems to already be affecting the NW quadrant of Ivan. It sure looks like it would push Ivan more westward, or at least get some dry air inside the storm. It's even pushed dry air over Grand Cayman on the last frame. Gonna have to keep an eye on this to see how it interacts with Ivan.
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B-Bear
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#5 Postby B-Bear » Sat Sep 11, 2004 7:32 am

I don't see any dry air entrainment in the system right now. There is obviously a ridge there that he is butting up against, and I'm sure there is dry air there. But he doesn't appear to me to be sucking it into his system, but rather trying to push through it.
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otowntiger
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#6 Postby otowntiger » Sat Sep 11, 2004 7:41 am

canegrl04 wrote:OMG :eek: :eek: :eek:

Ivan could be 170mph by the time he enters the Gulf


I'd be very surprised if that were the case. Notwithstanding the very high SSTs I believe shear and land interaction as well as ERC's will keep him in check. The NHC predicts weakening as he enters the Gulf. Of course they obviously don't have a handle on intensity forecasting as they readily admit, anything is possible.
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