some morning thoughts

[Derek Ortt]

first: I am totally surprised that this has passed just south of Jamaica. That ridge must have been even stronger than I had thought (which is why one should never distrust the observations).

second: System has maintained itself very well while passing by jamaica, which was expected. cat 5 intensity seems probably once again, unfortunately

third: track remains uncertain, though I am becoming more and more confident thta this is not going to hit miami

[CFL]

Derek, for the first time in a couple of days I really believe this is going to hit somewhere in the middle of the panhandle. I just heard Steve Lyons that it's possible that Ivan could hit as far west as Mobile, Alabama. I have some doubts about that far west, though.

[wxwatcher2]

Derek,
I know that High pressure dominates over low pressure.
My question is can an ULL push a high pressure ridge as it moves over it? I suppose the air has to move someplace. It appears the High is moving SW as the ULL moves West.....

[Derek Ortt]

that's kind of what may be happeneing, though I wont know for sure until I go to my office later this afternoon