Post Ivan Summaries here....
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Stormtrack03
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- Posts: 377
- Age: 43
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Post Ivan Summaries here....
For the people who have not been here the last 24 - 48 hours, please post any new information regarding Ivan in terms of intensity, track, and future path. Also, feel free to share your comments and discussions as they are always welcome. Please refrain if possible from posting whole images or web site data as it may clog the server, use links instead if possible.
Last edited by Stormtrack03 on Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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huricanwatcher
- Category 3
- Posts: 893
- Age: 65
- Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2003 6:09 pm
- Location: Kirkwood NY
- Contact:
WTNT34 KNHC 111317
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004
...COR TO THE SPEED IN REPEAT SECTION
...EYE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWEST COAST
OF JAMAICA...HEADING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM CABO CRUZ TO
CIENFUEGOS.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.
AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.4 WEST. THIS POSITION IS JUST
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF JAMAICA OR ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM...
SOUTH OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...IVAN SHOULD MOVE NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED...BUT IVAN COULD
BECOME STRONGER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 923 MB...27.26 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE OCCURRING
PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.
REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...17.7 N... 78.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004
...COR TO THE SPEED IN REPEAT SECTION
...EYE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWEST COAST
OF JAMAICA...HEADING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM CABO CRUZ TO
CIENFUEGOS.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.
AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.4 WEST. THIS POSITION IS JUST
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF JAMAICA OR ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM...
SOUTH OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...IVAN SHOULD MOVE NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED...BUT IVAN COULD
BECOME STRONGER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 923 MB...27.26 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE OCCURRING
PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.
REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...17.7 N... 78.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
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cape_escape
- Category 2
- Posts: 745
- Age: 56
- Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 2:39 am
- Location: Cape Coral Florida
- Contact:
Hurricane Ivan heading to near the Grand Cayman Island area by later tonight. Hurricane warnings remain for the Cayman Islands, parts of southwestern Cuba, and Jamaica. Hurricane Ivan is now located 145 miles east southeast of Grand Cayman Island and is currently moving west northwest at near 9 mph.
Hurricane Ivan has regained category 5 status this afternoon with maximum sustained winds of 165 mph with higher gusts close to 200 mph. Hurricane Ivan continues to deepen with the latest recon fix at 2044z showing minimum central pressure down to 913 millibars. This is a catastrophic hurricane heading to Grans Cayman later tonight into early Sunday. By Sunday night, Ivan is expected to remain a category 5 as it approaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth. All preparations to protect life and property on the Cayman Islands and western Cuba should have been rushed to completion.
Future projected paths show Hurricane Ivan tracking very near or directly impacting Grand Cayman Island. Either way, catastrophic damage is likely later tonight on Grand Cayman with winds sustained over 165 mph with higher gusts with the worse of it striking generally between 12 am and 2 am eastern time Sunday morning. From there, the projected path takes Ivan the terrible near the western tip of Cuba and the Isle Of Youth, both of which could experience the right front quadrant with winds over 165 mph and a storm surge of 20-25 feet with locally higher levels expected.
From there, Ivan is likely to impact the east central Gulf Of Mexico and gradually weaken. However we still expect a category 3 or 4 hurricane as it makes landfall potentially over the Florida Panhandle between Cedar Key and Pensacola by late Tuesday night. This is just a preliminary estimate and will likely be fined tuned further west or further east with future forecasts. However latest info suggest that the Florida Panhandle could see the worse of this, which present several problems.
A. The Florida Panhandle is more proned to significant storm surge
B. It's heavily wooden inland from the coast more so in the panhandle than on the peninsula, hence significant power outages.
The bottom line tonight is to prepare from really New Orleans eastward through the Florida Keys and evacuate when asked to do so. DO NOT wait until the last minute to evacuate since that is a fatal mistake during major catastrophic hurricanes such as this one.
Jim
Hurricane Ivan has regained category 5 status this afternoon with maximum sustained winds of 165 mph with higher gusts close to 200 mph. Hurricane Ivan continues to deepen with the latest recon fix at 2044z showing minimum central pressure down to 913 millibars. This is a catastrophic hurricane heading to Grans Cayman later tonight into early Sunday. By Sunday night, Ivan is expected to remain a category 5 as it approaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth. All preparations to protect life and property on the Cayman Islands and western Cuba should have been rushed to completion.
Future projected paths show Hurricane Ivan tracking very near or directly impacting Grand Cayman Island. Either way, catastrophic damage is likely later tonight on Grand Cayman with winds sustained over 165 mph with higher gusts with the worse of it striking generally between 12 am and 2 am eastern time Sunday morning. From there, the projected path takes Ivan the terrible near the western tip of Cuba and the Isle Of Youth, both of which could experience the right front quadrant with winds over 165 mph and a storm surge of 20-25 feet with locally higher levels expected.
From there, Ivan is likely to impact the east central Gulf Of Mexico and gradually weaken. However we still expect a category 3 or 4 hurricane as it makes landfall potentially over the Florida Panhandle between Cedar Key and Pensacola by late Tuesday night. This is just a preliminary estimate and will likely be fined tuned further west or further east with future forecasts. However latest info suggest that the Florida Panhandle could see the worse of this, which present several problems.
A. The Florida Panhandle is more proned to significant storm surge
B. It's heavily wooden inland from the coast more so in the panhandle than on the peninsula, hence significant power outages.
The bottom line tonight is to prepare from really New Orleans eastward through the Florida Keys and evacuate when asked to do so. DO NOT wait until the last minute to evacuate since that is a fatal mistake during major catastrophic hurricanes such as this one.
Jim
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Interesting observation of cyclonic loop.
While I could get a piece of paper and tape it to my screen to race Satellite Loops, I prefer numbers.
Not that they're much more accurate, but I don't trust my eyes anymore.
I have collected 5 vortex messages from 1700Z, 1900Z, 2100Z, 2200Z and 0005Z (that's 4hrs ahead of EDST)
This data is here : http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml
Notice the south movement here!
This can be explained by knowing that the eye is 17-20 miles in dia, and they can miss dead center.
But the difference in time would suggest more of an odd movement to me.
Also looks like a kind of ERC also, due to the change in eye characteristics.
minor drop in FL (flight level) winds, but a drop in pressure shows a healthy tropical cyclone!
I suggest that this shows what a wobble on the sat photos look like numerically.
Have fun with it and tell me what you think.
Not that they're much more accurate, but I don't trust my eyes anymore.
I have collected 5 vortex messages from 1700Z, 1900Z, 2100Z, 2200Z and 0005Z (that's 4hrs ahead of EDST)
This data is here : http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml
URNT12 KNHC 111730
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/1730Z <--- date/time Z
B. 17 DEG 58 MIN N <--- Lat/Lon
78 DEG 53 MIN W
H. 923 MB <--- bar press.
M. C18 <--- eye desc
P. AF966 2009A IVAN OB 04 <--- flight mission
MAX FL WIND 141 KT NW QUAD 1726Z.
MAX FL TEMP 19C 304/06 NM FROM FL CNTR
URNT12 KNHC 111917
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/1917Z
B. 18 DEG 06 MIN N
79 DEG 11 MIN W
H. 918 MB
M. CO17-20
P. AF966 2009A IVAN OB 11
MAX FL WIND 161 KT NE QUAD 1909Z.
Notice the south movement here!
This can be explained by knowing that the eye is 17-20 miles in dia, and they can miss dead center.
But the difference in time would suggest more of an odd movement to me.
URNT12 KNHC 112044
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/2044Z
B. 18 DEG 05 MIN N
79 DEG 20 MIN W
H. 913 MB
M. CO17-20
P. AF966 2009A IVAN OB 18
MAX FL WIND 161 KT NE QUAD 1909Z
Also looks like a kind of ERC also, due to the change in eye characteristics.
URNT12 KNHC 112218
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/2218Z
B. 18 DEG 07 MIN N
79 DEG 29 MIN W
H. 912 MB
M. C17
P. AF966 2009A IVAN OB 24
MAX FL WIND 161 KT NE QUAD 1909Z.
URNT12 KNHC 120005
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/0005Z
B. 18 DEG 09 MIN N
79 DEG 35 MIN W
H. 910 MB
M. CO15-17
P. AF966 2009A IVAN OB 29
MAX FL WIND 150 KT SE QUAD 2042Z
minor drop in FL (flight level) winds, but a drop in pressure shows a healthy tropical cyclone!
I suggest that this shows what a wobble on the sat photos look like numerically.
Have fun with it and tell me what you think.
Last edited by tronbunny on Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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NHC honing in on landfall
Disclaimer- I am not a meteorologist nor do I play one on TV, but I'm becoming more sure of the NHCs forecasts.
The models are coming into agreement and the 72hr timeframe of more certainty is near. While this may change, You should always heed the warninig of local authorities.
Ivan is a dangerous hurricane with storm force winds extending up to 150 miles from the eye.
As of 8pm Eastern Daylight time Saturday, 9/11/04...
040911 GFDL 18Z, and 040912 00Z Tropical suite models have Ivan with 110 knot winds at landfall just east of Pensacola at/around noon on Wednesday.
I suggest that all coastal residents from gulfport, MS to crystal river prepare for the worst and have all preparations complete before sunset on tuesday 9/14/04.
All gulf residents should keep their guard up, stay tuned to local news outlets and follow local authorities directions.
The models are coming into agreement and the 72hr timeframe of more certainty is near. While this may change, You should always heed the warninig of local authorities.
Ivan is a dangerous hurricane with storm force winds extending up to 150 miles from the eye.
As of 8pm Eastern Daylight time Saturday, 9/11/04...
040911 GFDL 18Z, and 040912 00Z Tropical suite models have Ivan with 110 knot winds at landfall just east of Pensacola at/around noon on Wednesday.
I suggest that all coastal residents from gulfport, MS to crystal river prepare for the worst and have all preparations complete before sunset on tuesday 9/14/04.
All gulf residents should keep their guard up, stay tuned to local news outlets and follow local authorities directions.
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Looks like NWS is guesstimating Mobile/Pensacola...
Hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 48
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 14, 2004
a reconnaissance plane just went through the eye of Ivan and
measured a pressure of 924 mb with a drop and estimated 920 mb by
extrapolation. Max flight level winds so far are 142 knots and with
the pressure rising...the initial intensity may be little lower.
Because the plane has not sampled the entire circulation yet...we
will keep the winds at 140 knots at this time. Satellite images
continue to show a well-defined eye surrounded by very cold
convective tops. Some weakening is forecast as Ivan moves farther
north over the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of
days...and encounters some westerly shear. However...Ivan should
still be a major hurricane when it reaches the United States coast.
Ivan is moving toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 8 knots. There
has been no significant change in the steering which continues to
be controlled by a subtropical ridge centered over the western
Atlantic. Ivan is forecast to gradually turn northward around the
periphery of the subtropical ridge with no significant change in
speed before landfall. This is consistent with guidance which
brings the hurricane near the north central Gulf Coast in about 48
hours. Once inland...the guidance slows down a weakened Ivan over
the southeastern United States. This could produce another
significant rain event in that area.
Note: due to forecast errors...one should not focus on the exact
track as the eventual landfall point. The entire Hurricane Watch
area is at risk.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 14/0900z 22.6n 86.0w 140 kt
12hr VT 14/1800z 24.0n 86.6w 140 kt
24hr VT 15/0600z 26.0n 87.7w 135 kt
36hr VT 15/1800z 28.0n 88.3w 130 kt
48hr VT 16/0600z 30.0n 88.0w 120 kt
72hr VT 17/0600z 33.5n 86.5w 50 kt...inland
96hr VT 18/0600z 35.5n 84.5w 20 kt...inland
120hr VT 19/0600z 37.0n 82.0w 20 kt...inland
$$
Hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 48
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 14, 2004
a reconnaissance plane just went through the eye of Ivan and
measured a pressure of 924 mb with a drop and estimated 920 mb by
extrapolation. Max flight level winds so far are 142 knots and with
the pressure rising...the initial intensity may be little lower.
Because the plane has not sampled the entire circulation yet...we
will keep the winds at 140 knots at this time. Satellite images
continue to show a well-defined eye surrounded by very cold
convective tops. Some weakening is forecast as Ivan moves farther
north over the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of
days...and encounters some westerly shear. However...Ivan should
still be a major hurricane when it reaches the United States coast.
Ivan is moving toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 8 knots. There
has been no significant change in the steering which continues to
be controlled by a subtropical ridge centered over the western
Atlantic. Ivan is forecast to gradually turn northward around the
periphery of the subtropical ridge with no significant change in
speed before landfall. This is consistent with guidance which
brings the hurricane near the north central Gulf Coast in about 48
hours. Once inland...the guidance slows down a weakened Ivan over
the southeastern United States. This could produce another
significant rain event in that area.
Note: due to forecast errors...one should not focus on the exact
track as the eventual landfall point. The entire Hurricane Watch
area is at risk.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 14/0900z 22.6n 86.0w 140 kt
12hr VT 14/1800z 24.0n 86.6w 140 kt
24hr VT 15/0600z 26.0n 87.7w 135 kt
36hr VT 15/1800z 28.0n 88.3w 130 kt
48hr VT 16/0600z 30.0n 88.0w 120 kt
72hr VT 17/0600z 33.5n 86.5w 50 kt...inland
96hr VT 18/0600z 35.5n 84.5w 20 kt...inland
120hr VT 19/0600z 37.0n 82.0w 20 kt...inland
$$
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Stormtrack03
- Category 1
- Posts: 377
- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:06 pm
- Location: Downingtown, PA
Hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 49
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 14, 2004
reconnaissance reports and satellite imagery indicate that Ivan has
weakened somewhat this morning. The central pressure in the
cloud-filled eye was up to 932 mb and the peak 700 mb winds have
come down to 128 kt. Based on these observations...the advisory
intensity is lowered to 120 kt and even this estimate is probably a
bit high. This weakening is concurrent with the erosion of the
eyewall reported by the aircraft crew and the development of a new
eyewall about 40-50 nm across.
Water vapor imagery and data from the NOAA G-IV jet this morning
continue to indicate restriction of the outflow in the northwest
quadrant of the hurricane...as well as very dry air underneath the
cirrus canopy. This...along with the current eyewall replacement
cycle...suggests that Ivan may continue to weaken a bit during the
next 12 hours or so. After that...global models suggest a
relaxation of the westerly shear about the time that Ivan is
expected to pass over a warm Eddy in the central Gulf. This could
allow Ivan to regain some strength before landfall...and this is
reflected in the official forecast. There has been no change from
the basic expectation that Ivan will be a major hurricane at
landfall.
The initial motion is 330/7. Ivan is moving around the periphery of
the Atlantic subtropical ridge. A second mid-level high is
centered over Louisiana with a ridge extending southward into the
western Gulf of Mexico. 12z raobs and jet data indicate that this
latter ridge is a little stronger than forecast by the 6z GFS run.
This might result in weaker steering and a slower motion toward the
coast than the GFS is forecasting. Model guidance is in pretty
good agreement through 48 hours...with only about 125 miles
separating the landfalls of the ECMWF to the west of the official
forecast from the UKMET to its east. The official forecast has
been shifted slightly west and is in best agreement with the FSU
superensemble...which has performed well with this storm.
There is considerable spread in the model forecasts after
landfall...and it is possible that the remnants of Ivan will move
very slowly or stall near or over the Appalachians in 4 or 5
days...which would produce a very serious flooding event.
Forecaster Franklin
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 14/1500z 23.4n 86.2w 120 kt
12hr VT 15/0000z 24.4n 86.9w 115 kt
24hr VT 15/1200z 26.3n 88.0w 115 kt
36hr VT 16/0000z 28.5n 88.5w 120 kt
48hr VT 16/1200z 30.5n 88.5w 110 kt...inland
72hr VT 17/1200z 34.0n 86.5w 40 kt...inland
96hr VT 18/1200z 36.0n 84.0w 20 kt...inland
120hr VT 19/1200z 36.5n 83.0w 20 kt...inland
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 14, 2004
reconnaissance reports and satellite imagery indicate that Ivan has
weakened somewhat this morning. The central pressure in the
cloud-filled eye was up to 932 mb and the peak 700 mb winds have
come down to 128 kt. Based on these observations...the advisory
intensity is lowered to 120 kt and even this estimate is probably a
bit high. This weakening is concurrent with the erosion of the
eyewall reported by the aircraft crew and the development of a new
eyewall about 40-50 nm across.
Water vapor imagery and data from the NOAA G-IV jet this morning
continue to indicate restriction of the outflow in the northwest
quadrant of the hurricane...as well as very dry air underneath the
cirrus canopy. This...along with the current eyewall replacement
cycle...suggests that Ivan may continue to weaken a bit during the
next 12 hours or so. After that...global models suggest a
relaxation of the westerly shear about the time that Ivan is
expected to pass over a warm Eddy in the central Gulf. This could
allow Ivan to regain some strength before landfall...and this is
reflected in the official forecast. There has been no change from
the basic expectation that Ivan will be a major hurricane at
landfall.
The initial motion is 330/7. Ivan is moving around the periphery of
the Atlantic subtropical ridge. A second mid-level high is
centered over Louisiana with a ridge extending southward into the
western Gulf of Mexico. 12z raobs and jet data indicate that this
latter ridge is a little stronger than forecast by the 6z GFS run.
This might result in weaker steering and a slower motion toward the
coast than the GFS is forecasting. Model guidance is in pretty
good agreement through 48 hours...with only about 125 miles
separating the landfalls of the ECMWF to the west of the official
forecast from the UKMET to its east. The official forecast has
been shifted slightly west and is in best agreement with the FSU
superensemble...which has performed well with this storm.
There is considerable spread in the model forecasts after
landfall...and it is possible that the remnants of Ivan will move
very slowly or stall near or over the Appalachians in 4 or 5
days...which would produce a very serious flooding event.
Forecaster Franklin
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 14/1500z 23.4n 86.2w 120 kt
12hr VT 15/0000z 24.4n 86.9w 115 kt
24hr VT 15/1200z 26.3n 88.0w 115 kt
36hr VT 16/0000z 28.5n 88.5w 120 kt
48hr VT 16/1200z 30.5n 88.5w 110 kt...inland
72hr VT 17/1200z 34.0n 86.5w 40 kt...inland
96hr VT 18/1200z 36.0n 84.0w 20 kt...inland
120hr VT 19/1200z 36.5n 83.0w 20 kt...inland
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