Ivan Advisories

[LeeJet]

It's already turning NW.

[Brent]

It was supposed to turn NW yesterday.

[LilNoles2004]

That track would be worse case scenario for my area...

[Brent]

That track would be worse case scenario for my area...

Has a Strong Cat 3 or Cat 4 ever hit Tallahassee? The storm surge into the Big Bend area would be catastrophic.

<not liking this at all>

Looks like that area is another bullseye this year. Bonnie, Frances, Ivan, only Ivan will be a major hurricane.

[Brent]

as of now as a borderline Cat 5. The damage will be worse than catastrophic.

More bad news... that is the skimpest part of Cuba possible. Charley didn't weaken at all crossing it.

[das8929]

Yea Havana looks to get a Cat 5. God be with them.

[PurdueWx80]

Yeah, I know someone who does a lot of baseball research in Cuba, and he says Havana has not recovered whatsoever from Charley. Remember how people were drinking water from puddles in the street after that? I guess water will be the least of their worries if their already torn shelter is flattened by a Cat 4 or 5. We can only hope and/or pray for a move further west or east this time.

[wxwatcher2]

FSU may get "caned" again this coming week!!

Tough loss Noles.........but Miami's got your number.......

[FloridaDiver]

If this trough keeps digging south as it appears in the loop and the ULL is maintained I have a bad feeling on what can happen once Ivan slows down and exits Cuba, could the trough be right in front of Ivan and kick him east ala Charley? WXRISK mentioned a similar situation in his forecast but did not think the track would involve a hard right turn. I’m looking forward to see his latest update to see if he holds firm on a much more easterly track… things will get interesting the next 24 hours for sure!

[Brent]

Yeah, I know someone who does a lot of baseball research in Cuba, and he says Havana has not recovered whatsoever from Charley. Remember how people were drinking water from puddles in the street after that? I guess water will be the least of their worries if their already torn shelter is flattened by a Cat 4 or 5. We can only hope and/or pray for a move further west or east this time.

East would be better.

[ColdFront77]

I don't see a stall. It's moving right along. Because the eye is covered it isn't showing true motion...

From another thread:

Ivan's speed in the last 12 hours:

11pm to 2am: 27.2 miles | 2am to 5am: 46.7 miles | 5am to 8am: 29.7 miles | 8am to 11am: 24.1 miles --- 12 hour average: 10.64 mph

IVAN HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK..
IVAN SHOULD MOVE NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

The slow down is in response to the turn Ivan is in the process of making or has completed.

[wabbitoid]

I have always thought the possibility of this heading further west has been under-played, and I'd be ready for anything if I lived in Louisiana. Only a few differences here and there, like that trough stalling, and we have more westwardly flow.

[jpigott]

has anyone heard preliminary damage reports out of Jamaica yet?

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

has anyone heard preliminary damage reports out of Jamaica yet?

TWC is showing pictures of damage pretty regular!

[Ixolib]

has anyone heard preliminary damage reports out of Jamaica yet?

Use WINAMP and listen live by pasting this link into the PLAY URL box: http://war.str3am.com:7550/

[Guest]

Eye has almost finished replacement

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rickk/ivan.html

[Mello1]

Coral - I was mentioning this yesterday, but it has been stated by a relatively famous meteorologist (Joe Bastardi) this morning, that IF Ivan appears to be headed in west of Cape San Blas...he could be a Cat 5 at landfall. In that event, the storm surge would be phenomenal. The idea is that if the steering currents don't turn Ivan north far enough east, then the turn will come at a point when Ivan has little interaction w/ land and much more interaction with the warmer waters of the central Gulf. It is something to consider now, and we should know better in a few days where Ivan is more likely to be headed.

Yup. I agree. With this storm slowing down, the window for interactive shearing elements will narrow. If this storm gets into the Gulf, it's a whole new ballgame. The question I have is when it will turn and by how much.

[Ixolib]

Eye has almost finished replacement

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rickk/ivan.html

I agree - certainly looks more west than north.

[Kennethb]

With all of the interaction with the ULL, ridge, trough to the north and east, any thoughts out there about the pumping of the ridge over Javier in the Pacific causing other downstream effects to Ivan?

[Mello1]

Purdue- West of Cape San Blas would be a nightmare! There would be no more Cape left.
I know that TS Isadore washed out part of the road at the "stumphole" (the bend on the Cape) and threatened to make the Cape an island.
Here is an aerial of the stump hole
http://www.grabarek.net/indiansummer/ae ... las_08.jpg
Notice the road is basically on the beach.

You have some mighty gorgeous pics there.