Ivan Advisories

[btsgmdad]

The eye did the Crazy Ivan Peebles Hurricane Dance around Jamaica!

[WeatherNLU]

Unless something changes, Ivan looks to pass 80W south of 18.5N. That's a little south and west of even what I was expecting, and I've been way left of forecasted track.

I don't know that anyone one the GC is safe yet.

[miamijaaz]

I am not a met, but it seems to me that something other than the recent western movement of Ivan is causing the models to make such a dramatic turn to the west. It seems to me that right now Ivan is not THAT far away from the position forecasted by the NHC prior to this western movement. Could this recent western movement really have translated into a nearly 300 mile shift to the west for some of the models or are perhaps the models reading into something, like the strength of the ridging or the weakness of the trough?

[chris_fit]

My opinion yes.

[goodlife]

Here is a report I read this morning....
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2004/jamaica.shtml

[Travelgirl]

My eyes are deceiving looks like slight wobble sw. Just a wobble

[Guest]

Certainly no one from La. to Key West, shouldn't let their guard down. Only when a storm has gone north of your latitude should you rest.

[Stormcenter]

looks like we will see a turn to the NW or N soon! just watching the morphology of Ivan seems to be giving hints during this ERC that he might be getting ready! SW FL onward to the North. Wouldn't at all be surprised to see this storm hug the coast of W FL.

THOUGHTS???

Ivan was supposed to turn NW on Thursday!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Stormcenter]

more north than west in 24 hours.

I think you may need worry about your neighbors in the panhandle Chris
and not Melbourne, FL.

[Brent]

MSNBC has a guy in Kingston reporting, so it must not be too bad there.

[Zadok]

I am out of the cone for now. Thank God. No longer a conehead.

[Stormcenter]

I am not a met, but it seems to me that something other than the recent western movement of Ivan is causing the models to make such a dramatic turn to the west. It seems to me that right now Ivan is not THAT far away from the position forecasted by the NHC prior to this western movement. Could this recent western movement really have translated into a nearly 300 mile shift to the west for some of the models or are perhaps the models reading into something, like the strength of the ridging or the weakness of the trough?

Huh? West is west and north is north there no other way to read into that.

[WeatherNLU]

Can you give a little bit of meteorological reasoning as to why you think a turn north is coming "soon"?

[wxman57]

I'm measuring about 285 degrees, still. The shrinking and then expanding eye during the replacement cycle may make it hard to judge movement "by eye".

[FloridaDiver]

We are out of the cone!

My neighbor said the same thing at 11:12am, he came knocking at my door and said “NHC has us out the cone, time to take shutters down… can I borrow your electric drill when your done?” I told him he could have it now since I’m not taking down squat at this time. He looked at me and laughed and mentioned that I’m to weather paranoid since Andrew. I know better and so should you, don’t let your guard down until this system is way north of us…

[Dean4Storms]

Sorry for the delay in responding. It's fairly simple, there is ridging from the east GOM across FL and extending down over Cuba which is currently driving him further west. This ridging is not weakening but merely expected to begin shifting eastward. How far eastward is the key and I don't expect too much as the ridge over the East Conus and the Atlantic begins to strengthen as even the NHC has finally indicated from here out, this in response to the trough digging out west. Once Ivan gets around the SW periphery of the ridging over Cuba he turns northward toward the panhandle and I doubt with the ridge forecasted now to strengthen over the Atlantic that Ivan will do much of any eastward turning, thus my FL. Panhandle call.

I'm even getting concerned that Ivan goes further west.

[cajungal]

While I don't think that Ivan will make as far west as southeast Louisiana, I still like to read the updates. I still think the furthest west would be Mobile. All of our meterologists told us we are out the woods here. They are barely even talking about Ivan anymore. I trust them and the NHC. I mean all the models and these professional meterologists can't be wrong. They would not put people here in southeast Louisiana in any danger. Or they would all be without jobs.

[Dean4Storms]

I'll include, NOGAPS has been very consistant with the north track and if you look at what is occuring with the trough out west this morning, somewhat delayed and the overall pattern that NOGAPS evolves with (height builds over east CONUS and pumps Atlantic ridge), it only makes sense.

NOGAPS......

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

[dennis1x1]

the eyewall did not go inland......per sat pics and per nhc...jamaica was spared.

[HNS]

notice the large vegetated sand ridges that make up that island?
http://www.grabarek.net/indiansummer/ae ... las_08.jpg
those weren't put there by your average thunderstorm... those sediments were all pushed up hurricanes!