Major shift west in models this morning

[PurdueWx80]

Any talk of a shift to the east by the NHC will be hushed by 12Z models. While it may be possible later in the period, there is a major change in several key models today. So far, the GFS is out only to 60 hours, but it has the storm over the FAR western tip of Cuba at that point. The 12Z GEM is even further west, and has the storm in the central Gulf in 72 hours (furthest west run yet). The 12Z Eta is also in the central Gulf. The Eta is not a tropical model, per se, but one must not focus on the actual storm it has. Instead look at the synoptic features, and you will probably see why there is a trend further west. The trough in the central US now is no longer forecast to dig so strongly into the Gulf...and some models even keep it in the TN/OH Valley before weakening. Also, the ridge in the western Gulf remains very strong and the upper low in the Atlantic is no longer shifting to the south. That implies to me a continued W-WNW motion w/ obvious wobbles on either side of this. Folks, if this trend is correct, we are going to have a MAJOR hurricane hit along the Gulf coast. The further west this storm gets, the stronger it can be in the Gulf owing to no influence from land and significantly warmer waters. For now, the trend is my friend, and my call is still between Tampa and the mouth of the Mississippi. I will feel more confident in narrowing it once we get to Monday or so.

Links:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072m.gif

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 478_50.gif

[Dean4Storms]

I agree Purdue, that ridging over Cuba is sending him further west and how far west will determine where along the North Gulf coast he heads. I don't see Tampa as much of a threat anymore as you indicate with no trough to turn him eastward he will only tread northward.

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

im not conviced by an extreme west northwest loop into central gulf.

[PurdueWx80]

I'm not convinced yet either, but it weirds me out that the GFS keeps going west west west, and actually takes Ivan through the Yucatan channel and into the central Gulf. I said western Cuba earlier, but I looked again and it misses it totally. Afterwards it goes NW then due north towards the FAR western FL panhandle.

[canegrl04]

I've got a weird feeling that ironically,GFS will be the only model that gets it right this time

[NateFLA]

I am skeptical because the storm slowed down, and everytime I see these storms slow down, the models get less and less accurate. We'll see in a few days, but I by no means have written Tampa off from threatening weather yet. In fact, considering these storms have categorically gone EAST of the models this far out.

We just have to keep watching.

[wabbitoid]

The slowing of Ivan is a big issue for accuracy, but the trough has also slowed leaving more time for things to the east to resolve.

I'm really worried that this thing has Louisiana all over it, and I thought all along there was a chance of that. I'm also worried that as this spins out there won't be as much shear in the Gulf, meaning this is the monster that eats New Orleans.