Just looking at the water vapor imagery from the last 18 hours or so...Jamaica was not saved by a wobble...Jamaica was saved by a small ridge of high pressure built in...I think...by the upper low encroaching in from the east.
The flow around the low usually would run counter-clockwise around it. However...the environmental flow coming down from the north ran into a roadblock...the outflow from Ivan.
Left with no place to go...air is piling up in the general area...creating some ridging to the north of Ivan. This appears to be what is shielding the hurricane from the break down of the pressure heights in the western Atlantic...although Ivan is moving very very slowly. This is what will cause the hurricane to move further west than expected.
This low in the west atlantic is creating some convection and appears deeper than represented in the models. However...the furthest east model...the 12Z GFS...is now showing enough ridging in place to push Ivan into the panhandle...and not head back toward most of the state.
MW
What Saved Jamaica and Reason for Model Shift
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What Saved Jamaica and Reason for Model Shift
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