Ivan Advisories

[cloud_galaxy]

Looks like mesovortices to me.

[das8929]

Thats not going to happen. Its already turning.

[Geoff Stormcloud]

Posted: Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:10 pm Post subject:

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Ocean springs , ms

I posted this on Sept. 6, I still think this will be the place.

[btsgmdad]

What we have here are three low pressure areas ganging up on the Bermuda High. The trough, the ULL over the Atlantic, and Ivan. The three together are bound to win, the question is when? The sooner it happens, the worse for the west coast of Florida. If it happens a little later, bad news for the North Gulf coast of Florida. A lot later and we could be talking about a monster in the Central Gulf. The question is not if the high will give but when.

[Anonymous]

Derek...I am not privy to the data that you guys have, nor am I educated in meteorolgy. But, I can see with my eyes what is developing and it's obvious through the water vapor imagery where the major flow pattern is located. Currently, it is set up to the west, slightly N of due west over the western tip of Cuba and into the central GOM.

[Agua]

Derek, where do you think the weakness and Ivan will meet? Got any inclination where a more northward motion may enter into the equation?

[Pebbles]

Humm...hard to see it is!

[WESTCHESTERPA]

I agree, if Ivan floats through the goal posts, entirely missing land before winding up in central gulf, WATCH out, will be monster.

[Ziplock48]

Stop the loops at # 145 and +1 it to 150. You will see the vortices. If you have trouple, try increasing the contrast of your monitor screen.
Zip

[GulfHills]

So what does this mean in terms of where Ivan will go? Still into the Big Bend?

[CaluWxBill]

I agree, if Ivan floats through the goal posts, entirely missing land before winding up in central gulf, WATCH out, will be monster.

Not necessarily, but yeah it could be bad.

[Brent]

just checked the 12Z obs and the ridge north of Ivan continues to hold. There is a wekaness before the Yucatan, so this shouldn't make it that far west, but this could very well move very near or over Grand Cayman

NHC track has it almost on top of Grand Cayman tomorrow morning.

[Pebbles]

*holds her tounge between her teeth and tilts head to the side staring at the loop* you know...you may be right

[MONTEGUT_LA]

I am prepared & ready to roll out if Ivan decides he wants to come visit us. As long as Ivan is a storm I will be watching. For Hurricane Juan the mets said it was headed to texas. We are RELAXED. By the time it was bedtime the water was coming up our front door. Until Ivan is on land my eyes will be on him.

[Derek Ortt]

probably over GC and toward the western portions of Cuba, possibly sparing Havana the eye wall (unless the eye is as large as it is now)

This could be good as the W subarbs of Havana already experienced a major hurricane (Charley was a category three at Cuba, not a cat 2 as it was carried operationally). They definately dont need to go through another major hurricane

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Today's Discussion
POSTED: September 11, 2004 12:08 a.m.


Hurricane Ivan is a dangerous Category 4 hurricane. As of 11:00 a.m. EDT Saturday, Ivan was centered at 17.9 north and 78.7 west, or 30 miles southwest of the western tip of Jamaica. Ivan is moving west-northwestward at 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 145 mph. The central pressure in Ivan is 925 millibars, or 27.32 inches. Hurricane-strength winds extend up to 45 miles from the center of Ivan; tropical storm-force winds reach up to 175 miles from the center.

Ivan is a very strong Category 4 storm, and the hurricane continues to go through internal changes that cause cycles of strengthening and weakening. This process is called eye-wall replacement and is common with all very strong hurricanes. During this process, the hurricane's eye contracts, causing a second eye wall to form around the smaller eye wall nearer the center. Once the second, and larger, eye wall forms, the inner eye wall falls apart and pressure within the hurricane rises. The larger second eye wall then slowly contracts and, once again, the pressure falls. Each time the pressure rises, the wind field around the hurricane decreases somewhat. Each time the pressure falls, the wind field around the hurricane tightens and usually increases. This process can take anywhere from 12 to 24 hours.

Ivan continues to look like a textbook hurricane Saturday morning with a well-defined eye wall and a fairly circular structure. Ivan took a westward jog last night, keeping the center just off of the southern coast of Jamaica. This may have spared parts of the island from the full force of the hurricane, but hurricane-force winds certainly swept over a large part of the island, especially the southern coast and at the higher elevations. The storm will now head toward the Grand Cayman Islands later Saturday night. Unlike Jamaica, which has fairly substantial mountains;, the Caymans are fairly flat and will not weaken the storm very much. Also, with the flat nature of the islands, storm surge will be a bigger problem with 5- to 8- and possibly a 10-foot surge possible. Rainfall of 5.00 to 10.00 inches is possible. The storm will then head toward the Isle of Youth and the western part of Cuba later Sunday into Sunday night.

The track then becomes a little more uncertain as the storm emerges off of Cuba. With the progression of the trough digging in from the west appearing to have stalled a bit and the westward movement of the storm over the past several hours, the window of movement as been shifted a little farther to the west with the center of the track now heading toward Apalachee Bay and the eastern Panhandle of Florida. However, given the weak nature of the steering winds, there is still a great deal of uncertainty as to the exact track, and all interests throughout the eastern Gulf Coast and the entire length of Florida should continue to closely monitor the progress of Ivan through Accuweather.com.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin Saturday, there is a tropical wave along 44 west, south of 17 north; fairly strong convection, or thunderstorms, are associated with this wave. A tropical wave is also positioned along 59 west, south of 20 north. This will bring some showers and thundershowers to the Windward Islands through Sunday, but development is not expected at this time. An long-lasting frontal boundary over the Gulf of Mexico will also be monitored for possible development.

[Agua]

Thanks. I'm relying pretty heavily on you man. Thanks for all your effort.

[NFLnut]

well, if we dont see a nrothward component to the motion soon, we are going to be in for a major bust here

.. as if that's a bad thing!

I'm in the Orlando area -- the Hurricane magnet of Florida (lately) -- and every nudge west is MORE than a welcome sight! I've liked your forecast for three days now, and it looks as if everyone else is starting to see the light.

[MGC]

Flow over Florida continues out of the east. I think the panhandle is currently at greatest risk....MGC

[Stormcenter]

It seems like he just does not want to head in the direction of Cuba.
Looks like he's back to the predominately west movement.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html