Ivan Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- CaluWxBill
- Category 2
- Posts: 577
- Joined: Sun Dec 21, 2003 8:31 pm
- Location: Southwest PA
- Contact:
Jekyhe32210 wrote:cycloneye wrote:Jekyhe32210 wrote:Wow--theres a model on crack for ya![]()
![]()
Why do you say that?
This model is obviously basing its track on the current heading---which would make the turn later... But Ivan is crawling and likely to make that turn a lot sooner and sharper than the model is showing---as models showed tampa landfall with Charley, and got a track well right, I would expect Ivan to go well right of the models again... Hopefull they will get back on track...
exactly jekyhe. Don't pay so much attention to the straigth lines. I think by monday the models were traverse this monster more to the right...
0 likes
Last night the water vapor shown it as a upper level low with no convection. With the tell tail signs of it shooting off a southeastern outflow jet. Today it shows convection forming over it. With it not being so far up in the Atmosphere? This system is also becoming more oreganized. So it is possible http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/WV/20.jpg
Also the convection is forming closer to the center!
Also the convection is forming closer to the center!
Last edited by Matthew5 on Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 181
- Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2003 12:53 pm
- Location: Riegelwood, NC (20 miles W of Wilmington)
-
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 30
- Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:19 pm
- Location: Pass Christian, MS
-
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 30
- Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:19 pm
- Location: Pass Christian, MS
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1923
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm
- charleston_hugo_veteran
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1590
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 12:47 pm
- Location: Charleston, S.C.
Matthew5 wrote:Last night the water vapor shown it as a upper level low with no convection. With the tell tail signs of it shooting off a southeastern outflow jet. Today it shows convection forming over it. With it not being so far up in the Atmosphere? This system is also becoming more oreganized. So it is possible http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/WV/20.jpg
OH...Wonderful!! Another off the coast hit...

0 likes
- Pebbles
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1994
- Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 1:42 pm
- Location: New Lenox, IL (SW of Chicago)
They have made a special note about the fl temp here... Know they do notes like these to show something special about a storm. Why did they note this and what does that tell you about Ivan? Basically if I see something like this again ...what should I glean from them pointing out that information?
0 likes
Also its forming some banding futures. Which are not normal for a upper level low pressure. We will have to see if convection fires over the upper low. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg
0 likes
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 1243
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 9:45 am
- Location: Ft. Collins, CO
Ivan 13/little west of Cedar Key
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... /ivan.html
I didn't shift but a degree west in longitude and I get a fairly significant landfall change. Can't get anything right these days...
But anyhow, Caymans, Isle of Youth, western Cuba, and FL panhandle. Still looking at a Cat 3 for FL, and a strong 4 for the other locations.
I didn't shift but a degree west in longitude and I get a fairly significant landfall change. Can't get anything right these days...

But anyhow, Caymans, Isle of Youth, western Cuba, and FL panhandle. Still looking at a Cat 3 for FL, and a strong 4 for the other locations.
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146044
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
For the first time some of the models track Ivan thru the Yucatan Channel.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
bwstg wrote:Jekyhe32210 wrote:cycloneye wrote:Jekyhe32210 wrote:Wow--theres a model on crack for ya![]()
![]()
Why do you say that?
This model is obviously basing its track on the current heading---which would make the turn later... But Ivan is crawling and likely to make that turn a lot sooner and sharper than the model is showing---as models showed tampa landfall with Charley, and got a track well right, I would expect Ivan to go well right of the models again... Hopefull they will get back on track...
exactly jekyhe. Don't pay so much attention to the straigth lines. I think by monday the models were traverse this monster more to the right...
Jek all the models except for maybe the drunken few are shifting west. The high is holding on more then thought. Jek are you wanting this to come to Jacksonville? I sure hope thats not the reason for your comment. Ivan will make a gradual turn not a sharp turn.
0 likes
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 208
- Joined: Fri Aug 27, 2004 12:28 pm
-
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 30
- Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:19 pm
- Location: Pass Christian, MS
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 187
- Joined: Mon Sep 06, 2004 3:33 pm
- Location: Ozarks Bioregion, Missouri, USA
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests