Ivan Advisories
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- Sean in New Orleans
- Category 5
- Posts: 1794
- Joined: Thu Aug 28, 2003 7:26 pm
- Location: New Orleans, LA 30.0N 90.0W
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I notice all of these childish comments coming from all new posters. This is sad. Hopefully, many of you will come to recognize the general mood of this board over time and it consists of intelligent analysis, and opinions--weighing different options, and respecting others and listening because of how they feel. With that said, everything is shifting West and it will probably wind up between Mobile and Panama City when it comes to landfall, IMHO.
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...Reason for Ivan's Slowdown...
Ivan is getting squeezed.
As mentinoed in the other post on this topic...the northerly flow piling up to the north of Ivan is what halted the northward movement. It looks...to my tired untrained eyes...that the ridging is starting to pile up to the west of the hurricane as well:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
This sinking motion observed there is spilling over the outflow and not appears to be piling up to the west . This may not last very long and could very well come to an end soon...but this blocking would explain why the hurricane has slowed way down.
If the mid/upper system (and there is evidence that it is not strictly an upper system...look at the convection associated with it) does not lift out or weaken it will start to clear out some of the ridging to the north of the hurricane and allow it to spring north some.
Not saying it will cause this to head for Miami or anything...because I'm not...but I am trying to explain why the hurricane has slowed and jogged a little to the north today.
These features are going to be very interesting to watch over the coming hours...
MW
As mentinoed in the other post on this topic...the northerly flow piling up to the north of Ivan is what halted the northward movement. It looks...to my tired untrained eyes...that the ridging is starting to pile up to the west of the hurricane as well:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
This sinking motion observed there is spilling over the outflow and not appears to be piling up to the west . This may not last very long and could very well come to an end soon...but this blocking would explain why the hurricane has slowed way down.
If the mid/upper system (and there is evidence that it is not strictly an upper system...look at the convection associated with it) does not lift out or weaken it will start to clear out some of the ridging to the north of the hurricane and allow it to spring north some.
Not saying it will cause this to head for Miami or anything...because I'm not...but I am trying to explain why the hurricane has slowed and jogged a little to the north today.
These features are going to be very interesting to watch over the coming hours...
MW
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Updating on the twitter now: http://www.twitter.com/@watkinstrack
- CaluWxBill
- Category 2
- Posts: 577
- Joined: Sun Dec 21, 2003 8:31 pm
- Location: Southwest PA
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NorthGaWeather wrote:bwstg wrote:Jekyhe32210 wrote:cycloneye wrote:Jekyhe32210 wrote:Wow--theres a model on crack for ya![]()
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Why do you say that?
This model is obviously basing its track on the current heading---which would make the turn later... But Ivan is crawling and likely to make that turn a lot sooner and sharper than the model is showing---as models showed tampa landfall with Charley, and got a track well right, I would expect Ivan to go well right of the models again... Hopefull they will get back on track...
exactly jekyhe. Don't pay so much attention to the straigth lines. I think by monday the models were traverse this monster more to the right...
Jek all the models except for maybe the drunken few are shifting west. The high is holding on more then thought. Jek are you wanting this to come to Jacksonville? I sure hope thats not the reason for your comment. Ivan will make a gradual turn not a sharp turn.
I can assure that is not the reason for his comments. I think like some have said slower movement, a turn towards the NW today will help balance the shift out on upcoming model runs back to the right.
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Sean in New Orleans wrote:I notice all of these childish comments coming from all new posters. This is sad. Hopefully, many of you will come to recognize the general mood of this board over time and it consists of intelligent analysis, and opinions--weighing different options, and respecting others and listening because of how they feel. With that said, everything is shifting West and it will probably wind up between Mobile and Panama City when it comes to landfall, IMHO.
IMHO, everyone here is fishing and sooner or later your gonna catch a break. IMHO...happy fishing...
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- Tropical Storm
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- Sean in New Orleans
- Category 5
- Posts: 1794
- Joined: Thu Aug 28, 2003 7:26 pm
- Location: New Orleans, LA 30.0N 90.0W
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Calm down--local mets have advised us here in New Orleans that some models, today, will likely be over the city and to not get too concerned with these models. The trend is West and the happy medium will be the end story, IMO. Let's just see how far West Ivan actually does go this time around.
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Daughter and I saw it last night before we went to bed about 1:30 am EDT. In fact there was another smaller area slightly east and north of the current one. Both had very clear counterclockwise motion. Earlier this morning one of the sat. loops showed what looked to me as shear from Ivan being picked up by the new convection. Be it known -- I know nothing about weather forecasting -- am a newbie to this site. Just reporting my observations.
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Daughter and I saw it last night before we went to bed about 1:30 am EDT. In fact there was another smaller area slightly east and north of the current one. Both had very clear counterclockwise motion. Earlier this morning one of the sat. loops showed what looked to me as shear from Ivan being picked up by the new convection. Be it known -- I know nothing about weather forecasting -- am a newbie to this site. Just reporting my observations.
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yea, i agree...i dont know enough to say wether i think it will for or not...but it has alot of features that appear to be a lil to tropical than normal...hmmm....ivan into panhandle of florida....this system into carolinas..all meeting over the SE....WOW..THAT WOULD BE CRAZY!!!
**not a forecast...just an imagination of "what if"**
**not a forecast...just an imagination of "what if"**
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- Innotech
- Category 5
- Posts: 1031
- Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:32 pm
- Location: Lafayette, Louisiana
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Re: Holy $$%@ The new 12z Cmc! New Orleans Bound?
Matthew5 wrote:http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi?time=2004091112&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
It shows Ivan heading at New Orleans!
no, that would be heading directly to Lafayette
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- charleston_hugo_veteran
- S2K Supporter
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