Ivan Advisories

Foladar · #4541 Postby **Foladar** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 3:20 pm

I live in Homestead, hence the asking

#4542 Postby **tronbunny** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 3:21 pm

Yea!
Been waiting since 7am for more vortex data!
Comparing the readings from 1730Z
= 17.9N 78.9W 923MB 141KT max FL winds (nw quad)
to the 1917Z
= 18.1N 79.2W 918MB 161KT max FL winds (ne quad)
I'd say we have a healthy Tropical Cyclone, here.
Movement has been .2N and...well, well, well .3W
There's that there more northerly component, I'll go out on a limb and call it NW for this period.
Reminder GFDL points 00Z = 17.9N 79.2W
Ivan has already made his 06Z GFDL model longitude and passed latitude target for 00Z! (it's now 20Z) He's running ahead of schedule now.
He's also a bit above the SHIP iintensity forecast.

Latest BAMM, BAMD and LBAR have set Apalachicola as target for 155KT winds at 8am DST on Tuesday, that IS ahead of the GFDL.
Get out of the way before midnight Monday!!!!

Website · #4543 Postby **Brent** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 3:22 pm

Your kidding, right?

Not much survives a Cat 5.

anjou · #4544 Postby **anjou** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 3:23 pm

Disclaimer: caves can be very dangerous. They can fill with water, they can be subject to mudslides, etc. etc.

That said, as a historical point of interest, caves in the Caymans (presumably ones on highest ground?) have been used for hurricane protection before, according to some online references. Of course, it was not always with good results.

"Over the past 200 years the residents of Cayman Brac have sought shelter in these caves through some rare but severe storms that have crossed the islands."
http://www.caymanislands.ky/to_do/kids/kids_caves.asp

"The famous "Bluff" of Cayman Brac is riddled with caves, some large, some small, and some spectacular. In days gone by, "Brackers" would seek shelter in these caves from hurricanes, and many perished in them during the horrible hurricane of 1932."
http://www.staycayman.com/activities4.asp

This TODAY from the Caymans:

"Getting a bit breezy - perhaps 20 mph on the north side of the Brac; rough frothy seas with surf lines close together. Our old barometer dropped two tenths in the last five or six hours. The two of us are loading up now, shortly to head for the cave. If we are able to reach others later by cell phone, we may phone in posts."

and from 9-9-04:

"Several Brackers have told me that are going to wait out the storm in the bluff caves, just what they did in the last huge storm of 1932."

Both posts at http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/2004/cayman.shtml

However, before concluding that caves were the worst place to be in 1932, there is this:
"... the hurricane that killed 67 people and flattened almost every building on Cayman Brac and Little Cayman in 1932."
http://www.cntraveller.co.uk/Guides/Cayman_Islands/

and:
"In 1932, an especially violent one wreaked havoc on the island. Most of the island's residents survived by hiding in Peter's Cave, high on a north side bluff."
http://www.caymanbrac.com/about.html

and:
"("Peter's Cave is an historic site at the top of the Lighthouse steps in Spot Bay. Since 1833, this cave has provided shelter from hurricanes for the people on the northeast coast of the island")"
http://www.islands.com/caymanbrac/

Thought it was interesting.

das8929 · #4545 Postby **das8929** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 3:23 pm

A vault should

.

Sean in New Orleans · #4546 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 3:24 pm

Extratropical wrote:Tampa is out of the woods?

No...Tampa is not out of the woods, IMO. Chances of a landfall there, though are certainly decreasing as we watch latest satellite of this system. I believe you can take a small sigh of relief there, IMO, but, keep watching...

#4547 Postby **tronbunny** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 3:25 pm

Nope,
See my post, under MWatkins' "Recon-o-rama.."
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=44055

not yet....

Guest · #4548 Postby **Guest** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 3:26 pm

Why does this topic deserve another thread? Not pointing this one out of them all. Example how many threads do you see about Cat 5, predicted forcast, Models, oh and people saying: this is why I don't believe the models (that should be posted on a model thread, not a new topic), Threads about current movement (there are about 4-5 just on the front page (why can't one thread be named Current Movement of Ivan)? Just trying to help bring some order and help this message board be more suffecient. Think about how much eaiser it will be to read about a certain topic on one thread instead of going to multiple threads chasing rabbits.

Praxus · #4549 Postby **Praxus** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 3:26 pm

Yeah a bank vault is not going to get destroyed by a cat 5 lol...

ohiostorm · #4550 Postby **ohiostorm** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 3:27 pm

Looks like its getting better outflow now. Could this thing reach 170+?

Website · #4551 Postby **Brent** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 3:27 pm

Praxus wrote:Yeah a bank vault is not going to get destroyed by a cat 5 lol...

I should have read. I thought you meant they were staying in the bank. :eek:

Vault is the best thing IMO.

Windtalker · #4552 Postby **Windtalker** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 3:27 pm

Josephine96 wrote:where do you think is his final destination, wind..?

A Charley Path....Sorry

canegrl04 · #4553 Postby **canegrl04** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 3:27 pm

thats 185mph :eek:

#4554 Postby **Buck** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 3:28 pm

NO! I vacation near Apalachicola every year. And my beach house faces Southeast on Cape San Blas.

das8929 · #4555 Postby **das8929** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 3:29 pm

Lol its not going to hit Apalachicola at 185 mph thats just absurd. Maybe 150 at strongest.

#4556 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 3:29 pm

If you go to the NOAA page and click on the satellite imagery link then run the floater, you can see that Ivan has run along a more northerly path than the predicted path over the past 13 frames. -Not much over such a short time, but if that difference were extrapolated, it could make quite a difference in the final solution.

#4557 Postby **Bellarose** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 3:29 pm

Sean in New Orleans wrote:
Extratropical wrote:Tampa is out of the woods?

No...Tampa is not out of the woods, IMO. Chances of a landfall there, though are certainly decreasing as we watch latest satellite of this system. I believe you can take a small sigh of relief there, IMO, but, keep watching...

I'm in Tampa. Not really concerned about it making landfall here. My question is does this newer path take it far enough to our west to avoid the storm surge and winds?

LSUChamps0002 · #4558 Postby **LSUChamps0002** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 3:29 pm

MW ... How does one take this recon data and make it readable as you guys seem to do. Also, where exactly do you go to find the absolute latest recon messages all the time?

Just curious. Thanks.

#4559 Postby **tronbunny** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 3:30 pm

NCstateWOLF wrote:Why does this topic deserve another thread?
<snip> (why can't one thread be named Current Movement of Ivan)? Just trying to help bring some order and help this message board be more suffecient. Think about how much eaiser it will be to read about a certain topic on one thread instead of going to multiple threads chasing rabbits.

Because we like rabbits!!
:lol:

Praxus · #4560 Postby **Praxus** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 3:30 pm

Heh yeah it'd probably be the only thing left where the bank was.

Ivan Advisories

Ivan is running North of NHC track for last few hours

Who is online