Ivan Advisories

[Brent]

thats 185mph

FLIGHT-LEVEL.

Surface reduction is 165 mph.

[Josephine96]

Most rabbits are cute lol

[logybogy]

Ummm no.

If anything it is on track or slightly SOUTH of track.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Run the loop and then click on the button where it says forecast points.

[Sean in New Orleans]

...maybe the eye will go just South of there, but, they are in for some serious destruction with a category 5 storm...WOW..this is a dangerous situation for these guys. They will be on the Northern edge of the eyewall, it appears..rough weather... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[TS Zack]

About right on but if the system doesn't turn Northwest in the next 3 hours that track is out the window.

[Josephine96]

Next advisory comes out in less than 20.. It may indeed be reaching 170 or so

[bahamaswx]

An he's moved due west for the past hour. Just a wobble though, but they add up.

[dixiebreeze]

Gilbert was 888 mb at his lowest.

[Fodie77]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 38


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 11, 2004


...Ivan regains category five hurricane strength...heading toward
the Cayman Islands and western Cuba...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Cuba from Pinar del Rio to
Ciego de Avila including the Isle of Youth. A Hurricane Warning
means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning
area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the rest of Cuba. A
Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

Interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea...as well as in the
eastern Gulf of Mexico...should closely monitor the progress of
dangerous Hurricane Ivan.

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the well-defined eye of Hurricane Ivan was
located near latitude 18.2 north...longitude 79.3 west or about
145 miles... 235 km...east-southeast of Grand Cayman.

Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr. On
this track...Ivan should be moving near or over the Cayman Islands
on Sunday.

A reconnaissance plane indicate that the maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 165 mph...270 km/hr...with higher gusts.
This makes Ivan an extremely dangerous category five hurricane on
the Saffir/Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 175 miles...280 km.

Minimum central pressure recently estimated by a reconnaissance
plane was 914 mb...26.99 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 20 to 25 feet...locally higher...
above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering
waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center
makes landfall in Cuba.

Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the
path of Ivan.

Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...18.2 N... 79.3 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...165 mph. Minimum central pressure... 914 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM
EDT.

Forecaster Avila

[Chilly_Water]

I have NO idea if it's a shelter in the bank or if it's the vault. We only communicate by e-mail and we havn't heard from her since they said they were "staying at a shelter at the bank." I hope they have the sense to get in the vault if things get dicey....which appears to be the case.

[Josephine96]

Ok.. so 165 @ 5.. Dangerous storm indeed

[hibiscushouse]

Do you really think it will still be a strong cat 4 all the way up the track? I know it's intensifying now, but I thought it would weaken going over Cuba. Not as much now that it's supposed to go over the west part of Cuba?
But wasn't there supposed to be some shear when it entered the GOM?
And hasn't the Gulf water cooled as a result of Frances?

[Buck]

But in this storm, its been said that a storm that is this "convectively active" the flight level winds might be the same as the ground level or even stronger.

I don't think it will hit Apalachicola that strong either, I just don't want it to hit there strong AT ALL.

[hesperhys]

I agree with you ST.. I don't believe this panhandle scenario at all.. I'm not trying to bash the NHC but maybe they should rethink it just a tad..

You freely admit you have no data to back up your hunch, but the NHC, which has plenty of data to back up its forecast "should rethink it just a tad"...?

[Fodie77]

Hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 38


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 11, 2004



there have been some gradual changes in the steering pattern over
the last day or so which could result in the hurricane moving on a
track not as close to South Florida. While this may be good news
for South Florida...it is not so for other regions of the eastern
Gulf Coast. Water vapor images show that a ridge of high pressure
at the mid to upper-levels has developed from the Gulf of Mexico
eastward across Florida. It appears that this ridge has been
forcing the hurricane on a more westward track...delaying the
expected northwest and northward turn. Although the northward turn
is still forecast to occur as a weakness develops in the Gulf of
Mexico...it is now expected to occur over extreme western Cuba and
over the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico. This track increases
the hurricane risk for the northeastern Gulf of Mexico region and
decreases it for South Florida. The westward shift of the official
forecast remains in agreement with guidance which has also been
shifting gradually westward.
As was thought possible...Ivan has regained category five strength.
A reconnaissance plane just measured 161 knots at 700 mb and an
extrapolated pressure of 914 mb. The drop measured 918 mb but it
had 29 knots at the surface. Initial intensity has been increased
to 145 knots. There are no skills in predicting changes in
intensity with such extremely intense hurricanes...so Ivan is kept
at 145 knots until landfall in Cuba. Thereafter...the shear is
forecast to increase...so a gradual weakening is indicated.
Nevertherless... Ivan is expected to reach the unites states as a
major hurricane.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 11/2100z 18.2n 79.3w 145 kt
12hr VT 12/0600z 18.7n 80.5w 145 kt
24hr VT 12/1800z 20.0n 82.0w 145 kt
36hr VT 13/0600z 21.5n 83.1w 145 kt...nearing Cuba
48hr VT 13/1800z 23.1n 84.0w 130 kt
72hr VT 14/1800z 26.5n 85.0w 115 kt
96hr VT 15/1800z 31.0n 85.0w 60 kt...inland
120hr VT 16/1800z 36.0n 83.0w 25 kt...inland

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

well, that's strange, cuz when I ran it about 20 minutes ago, the last frame's eye was just to the right of the prediction. -since I did check that box. Maybe the problem was that I used the IR image? could that trick the eyes?

[Praxus]

Anyone have one ?

Personally I wish they get the DJ from the jamaican one;
that guy was great

[rdcrds]

the 4pm track will be further to the west. The sad sad part about it, is everyone in the tampa bay area think this is over now and it's not gonna effect them. We'll see what happens i guess. I honestly myself haven't felt at all that it was gonna hit the west coast of florida. I've been saying here to my family. it's pensacola/alabama/lousianna area. The tracks have gradually shifted that way, i dont forsee any changes today that will make the track anymore east nor do i see it happening anytime soon . The NHC i would find interesting to hear their explanation if over the next 2 days this shifted completely east. which is why i don't think it will. They would never move the forecast so drastically and leave themselves open for the "crap" the west coast of florida people would give. Their recent willingness to keep following the gfdl model and moving it westward is apparent. IF it does decide to make that turn, which it won't. God help them , because everyone on this west coast including the weather broadcastors pretty much have said "we dodged another bullet"

[canegrl04]

One more steep drop in pressure,and Ivan could come pretty close to matching that

[Fodie77]

Still the FL panhandle.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html
It still seems like the NHC is advoiding making any real shift to the west.