Ivan Advisories

[Josephine96]

Tough creatures you guys are..

1 more time..

This thing is forecast to make a due north or NW movement soon..

If a trough is around.. even a weak 1.. You would think the trough would pick this thing up and move it a N or NE direction..

I think we all need to take a walk in a NE direction and calm our nerves lol.. This storm is definitely fueling the tempers

[tronbunny]

MW ... How does one take this recon data and make it readable as you guys seem to do. Also, where exactly do you go to find the absolute latest recon messages all the time?

Just curious. Thanks.

The recon vortex data can be picked up from several ftp sites.
here's 1 http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/
and the file will begin with URNT then the year (04) month (09) and day of month (11 today) and the data observation time (last I got was 948)

How to read recon data is available in another place where you can also get the data!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml

[air360]

which DJ? the dear pastor show which was on thursday night was wonderful..haha

[Josephine96]

or any eastward shifts lol

[yoda]

Coastal storm surge flooding of 20 to 25 feet...locally higher...
above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering
waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center
makes landfall in Cuba.

[Foladar]

The answer seems to be NO. The track was again shifted WEST or LEFT as of 5pm...

[Praxus]

Holy %#% the 5 pm advisory gives 20-25 foot storm surges....

[air360]

well, as of 5pm there is no eastward shift in the track as many people have been saying there would be. And in the discussion MOST of it is spent saying how there is going to be more westward threat and that the west coast of FL is not so much under the gun anymore....hmm....

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200409_5day.html

[yoda]

[tronbunny]

I agree with you ST.. I don't believe this panhandle scenario at all.. I'm not trying to bash the NHC but maybe they should rethink it just a tad..

You freely admit you have no data to back up your hunch, but the NHC, which has plenty of data to back up its forecast "should rethink it just a tad"...?

Josephine96 has data to back up her "hunch"

24 hours ago those same "reliable" models had Ivan over our heads monday night!

[medic8ed]

Just south of Tampa Bay, about 2 miles from the coast...

I've been putting up plywood all %&$*% day and I'm only halfway
there -- I was REALLY depending on you guys and gals giving me
a good excuse for quitting early and kicking back with a flick and a few
cold ones. (The wife and kids have evacuated already, so I've rented
every uber-violent guy movie I could find...)

You're really letting me down with all this eastern shift talk. Clear Channel
(WFLA) nearly had me convinced I could quit. Like I said, $%*$ !!! ':red:'

[Josephine96]

Yeah.. we shall see though.. This thing is following a path similar to Charley's..

Now I know.. the atmosphere is not the same as Charley's.. but a Charley track and peninsula landfall can't be ruled out quite yet

[Fodie77]

I still wish the NHC would talk a little more about this expected shear. All they are saying is that it should gradually weaken it.

[LSUChamps0002]

Thanks Tron for the answer.

[rdcrds]

Still the FL panhandle.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html
It still seems like the NHC is advoiding making any real shift to the west.

i made my post on another thread before seeing this newest advisory. As i said they'd be under alot of pressure if it goes east.This is why they havent made the MORE westerly track that it's gonna go. They need to protect themself on the west coast of florida. As this gets past cuba perhaps they will when they feel they have no chance of it doing so. They are just protecting themselves w/o giving the more westerly track they think it's going

[Brent]

Track would be a disaster with massive storm surge in Apalachee Bay.

[Fodie77]

Somehow the thread title just changed without me doing anything to it...weird.

[Josephine96]

If the eastward shift comes.. I think it'll not be till tomorrow.. Maybe even Monday

[air360]

IF it is shifted eastward...how much east are we talking about here?....and what would they see tomrorow that would cause them to shift it east that they dont see now

[Brent]

Somehow the thread title just changed without me doing anything to it...weird.

Moderators. They are doing it to these threads so we don't have multiple threads on everything. It saves on bandwidth.