Ivan Advisories

[chris_fit]

i called west shift at 5 and east shift at 11.

Wait some more.

[Fodie77]

Somehow the thread title just changed without me doing anything to it...weird.

Moderators. They are doing it to these threads so we don't have multiple threads on everything. It saves on bandwidth.

Oh, that's cool.

[roostercogburn]

Come on Chris, let's see that forecast.

[Lockhart]

Why do you think it's going to be Florida, Stormtrack? I wonder why all the models are shifting West. I was expecting a move East in the latest runs after Ivan slowed down, but the opposite happened.

[rsm]

Well, I live in Tampa and I can tell you that NOBODY i've talked to thinks this thing is gonna pass us by. We are very concerned and will be for our part of the state and everyone else. We have been through a lot this summer, (not near as much as some), and realize that it is sort of a hollow feeling of relief when we miss getting the brunt of these storms as others are certainly going to suffer.

[Josephine96]

Good point Chris.. Maybe even not till tomorrow will be an east shift if 1 at all

[air360]

wait some more? well...there is not much else we can do right now lol....but yea..we'll see what happens

[cycloneye]

Fodie to not create many threads about a same theme if needed we edit some of the titles of the threads but nothing more.

[otowntiger]

Still the FL panhandle.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html
It still seems like the NHC is advoiding making any real shift to the west.

Its clearly shifted more west over the last several forecast advisories. How far west do you think it should shift? Going from SW FL to Panama City is a pretty far shift west, don't you think?

[birder]

Chris_fit, I'm wondering what you think of NHC's discussion:

--------------------
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE MID TO UPPER-LEVELS HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS RIDGE HAS BEEN
FORCING THE HURRICANE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK...DELAYING THE
EXPECTED NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD TURN. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHWARD TURN
IS STILL FORECAST TO OCCUR AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...IT IS NOW EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA AND
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TRACK INCREASES
THE HURRICANE RISK FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO REGION AND
DECREASES IT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REMAINS IN AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN
SHIFTING GRADUALLY WESTWARD.
------------------------

Do you think this high pressure ridge will weaken significantly by 11 p.m.?

[Windtalker]

Keep an eye on the Isle of Youth...if Ivan Passes to the right on a more NW to N heading then all of Florida has to beware. If he passes to the left of The Isle, then we can take a deep breath because that can lessen the chance of a hit in central or S Florida.

[crazycajuncane]

Louisiana is in the cone, out the cone, in the cone, out the cone???

LOL

Just 2 days ago this storm was on a DIRECT path to Tampa, Flordia.

Now what?

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

storm is still SEVERAL days away. remember charley. before it hit cuba the NOGAPS UKMet and others were screaming panhandle. Again im not stressing the current models are WRONG but i'm saying, you just never know how things will break down. !!

[Wannabewxman79]

From the models it is shifted well west now....... more toward the west panhandle.....


http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

[Agua]

No need for anyone to let their guard down, k?

[Fodie77]

I know this sounds very experimental, but I think that to save bandwith (and our message board scrolling eyes) we should post all Ivan tracking, location, movement related things here. All of you may hate the idea, but I figured it was worth a try. I'm getting frustrated with dozens of Ivan movement/location threads. Hopefully this will work.

So, I'll start with the current NHC 5 pm track. Little change, just slightly more west. I think this may be the first time that New Orleans has been included anywhere in the cone of uncertainty.

[Chilly_Water]

I was going to keep this secret, but what the hell...
http://www.vibefm.ky/modules.php?op=mod ... file=index
Click "Vibe is streaming live" in upper right hand corner. If it gets bogged down and I lose it, I'll get mad.

[rdcrds]

If you heard local west coast weather and people talking, after this new update, they all sighing in relief in the tampa bay area

[Aquawind]

My Friends on Big Pine are watching every move and squirming a tad less than yesterday..little chance it will give you anything more than TS winds right now..but that can change in 12 hours again..

[Buck]

whoa..... !