Ivan Advisories

[Chilly_Water]

BTW-like I said, the music is awful and the news reports are far and few between. Who knows if they'll stop music when the cane hits. I checked, this is the ONLY station that broadcasts over the net.

[flightpath]

trending more westward, but I think landfall will be east of New Orleans as upper level steering should take hold tomorrow. I hope.

[otowntiger]

IF it is shifted eastward...how much east are we talking about here?....and what would they see tomrorow that would cause them to shift it east that they dont see now

The same things they didn't see when they were calling for a southwest FL hit two days ago instead of the Panhandle. It funny they didn't see a (big) threat to the Panhandle on Thursday, now they don't see a (big) threat to the West coast of FL. It changes all the time. Monday is a long ways away. So who knows, by then they may be putitng hurricane watches up in LA! Or they could put them up in SW Florida. Its anybody's guess. Of course the track may stay right where it is, bottom line, odds are it will change. I learned that back in elementary school. The first rule in studying weather is: it is always changing. LOL!

[Foladar]

Keep an eye on the Isle of Youth...if Ivan Passes to the right on a more NW to N heading then all of Florida has to beware. If he passes to the left of The Isle, then we can take a deep breath because that can lessen the chance of a hit in central or S Florida.

Where is the Isle of Youth? I've heard it mentioned, but not too sure..thanks

[latemodel25]

yeah its starting to look much better for us in the bay area. Thank goodness!

[Aquawind]

Scary stuff..that is alot of water to combine with a high tide..

[Windtalker]

Keep an eye on the Isle of Youth...if Ivan Passes to the right on a more NW to N heading then all of Florida has to beware. If he passes to the left of The Isle, then we can take a deep breath because that can lessen the chance of a hit in central or S Florida.

Where is the Isle of Youth? I've heard it mentioned, but not too sure..thanks

That little island under the western end of Cuba.

[Fodie77]

Wow, this thread bombed faster than Hurricane Ivan. Oh, well, I figured it was at least worth a try.

[Derek Ortt]

I do not yet see the feature that is going to cause the shear

[tronbunny]

Been waiting since 7am for more vortex data!
Comparing the readings from 1730Z
= 17.9N 78.9W 923MB 141KT max FL winds (nw quad)
to the 1917Z
= 18.1N 79.2W 918MB 161KT max FL winds (ne quad)
<snip>Movement has been .2N and...well, well, well .3W
There's that there more northerly component, I'll go out on a limb and call it NW for this period.
Reminder GFDL points 00Z = 17.9N 79.2W
Ivan has already made his 06Z GFDL model longitude and passed latitude target for 00Z! (it's now 20Z) He's running ahead of schedule now.
He's also a bit above the SHIP intensity forecast.

The very latest BAMM, BAMD, and LBAR models have shifted just a hair west of Apalachicola coming in at midday Tuesday at 109Kts wind
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

040913 1800 040914 1800 040915 1800 040916 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 21.3N 85.5W 23.6N 87.3W 26.7N 87.4W 32.1N 84.9W

BAMM 21.4N 86.4W 22.8N 87.9W 26.3N 86.8W 32.1N 84.7W

A98E 22.0N 84.4W 25.1N 86.1W 28.6N 86.4W 30.7N 86.6W

LBAR 23.1N 85.0W 26.7N 86.1W 30.3N 84.8W 33.6N 83.7W

SHIP 123KTS 109KTS 93KTS 75KTS

DSHP 107KTS 93KTS 41KTS 28KTS

[kevin]

It was worth the try. People like to see their names on the board, some more than others.

[Sanibel]

They still have the cone off west Florida. I thought Ivan would warp in form again and weaken. Just the opposite. Now at his lowest pressure at 914! A massive category 5 on the scale of Gilbert and Mitch.


I'm awfully scared of this hurricane if it comes this way. Right now the last loop has a west veer that may be a wobble or may be a west track and under Grand Cayman.

A real danger if he shoots the Yucatan Channel...

[Possum Trot]

Thanks Chilly. Are you using RealMedia Player or Windows Crash Player.

[canegrl04]

This is what I've felt since Ivan went South of Jamaica instead of right over.Hes already defying NHC forecasts,so its no surprise that Ivan would continue on a path to take him thru the Yucatan Channel

[Lockhart]

I don't think anybody thinks they totally out of this. I'm in Miami and I won't be relaxing totally until this thing is North of us. Just look at the weird things that have happened with the last two storms. Frances just *stopped* for a whole day right off the Florida coast and lost much of its strength--which I never would have expected. Ivan just did the Southern Watusi around Jamaica, sparing them total destruction--which I never would have expected.

I think people are more likely to be overcautious than flip at this point.

[adelphi_sky]

Wow. They play that in the Caymans? lol

[Weatherboy1]

Just looking at the forecast path, the main island in the Caymans -- Grand Cayman is in a world of trouble. I hope everyone down there fares well, but a 165-mph hurricane scoring a direct hit will devastate the entire place. My wife and I stopped there on our honeymoon cruise back in 1999, and the island is barely a few feet above sea level in most places. While the construction is very sturdy, I can't imagine where people will go ... I mean, aren't we talking about a storm surge of 15+ feet with storm this strong?

As an aside to the other post on caves, I believe those posts refer to Cayman Brac and Little Brac. If my geographic memory serves me correctly, those are the two smaller islands NE of the main island of Grand Cayman. So unfortunately, those caves wouldn't do the residents of the main island -- where most of the Cayman's population resides -- much good.

[Praxus]

Thanks for the link. Hopefully they'll go all news when the storm gets closer.

[Chilly_Water]

Niether...it automatically opened live365(?) and has been playing flawlessly for over three hours...when I actaully take it off mute. One can only take so much of that music.

[Fodie77]

I think a shot thru the Yucatan Channel is very possible. I think that even if it does hit Cuba, it will be a brush of the western fringes. That definitely wouldn't weaken Ivan much at all if that happened. Even if this so-called shear does show up in the GOM, if Ivan doesn't weaken much over Cuba, it does appear as if Ivan would be likely to hit the US as a Cat 4.