Ivan Advisories

[BensonTCwatcher]

What I think will happen is the ridge to the NE of Ivan which is trapping stalling him will continue to "pinch" and Ivan's outflow will weaken it. Once that happens he will follow the channel visible on WV loop. That puts him into the bid bend. Then out to sea ( i hope)

[Fodie77]

000
WHXX01 KWBC 111802
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE IVAN (AL092004) ON 20040911 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040911 1800 040912 0600 040912 1800 040913 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.0N 79.0W 18.6N 80.6W 19.4N 82.4W 20.3N 84.1W
BAMM 18.0N 79.0W 18.9N 80.9W 19.9N 83.0W 20.6N 84.9W
A98E 18.0N 79.0W 18.4N 80.5W 19.0N 82.0W 20.1N 83.4W
LBAR 18.0N 79.0W 18.8N 80.6W 19.9N 82.2W 21.4N 83.7W
SHIP 125KTS 125KTS 128KTS 128KTS
DSHP 125KTS 125KTS 128KTS 128KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040913 1800 040914 1800 040915 1800 040916 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.3N 85.5W 23.6N 87.3W 26.7N 87.4W 32.1N 84.9W
BAMM 21.4N 86.4W 22.8N 87.9W 26.3N 86.8W 32.1N 84.7W
A98E 22.0N 84.4W 25.1N 86.1W 28.6N 86.4W 30.7N 86.6W
LBAR 23.1N 85.0W 26.7N 86.1W 30.3N 84.8W 33.6N 83.7W
SHIP 123KTS 109KTS 93KTS 75KTS
DSHP 107KTS 93KTS 41KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.0N LONCUR = 79.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 17.4N LONM12 = 77.6W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 16.8N LONM24 = 75.8W
WNDCUR = 125KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 130KT
CENPRS = 923MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 150NM

[Lockhart]

I agree completely, Rainband. Miami was moved *just* out of the cone at 11AM, and I am still worried. Even with the 5PM advisory moving the cone further West, it wouldn't be difficult at *all* for Ivan to hit South Florida. Only time will tell.

[senorpepr]

Dang, I wonder how low it will go.

Is it like the limbo?

[cycloneye]

Allen

[Pebbles]

NO WAY would I wanna be flying in that thing!!!! *stands in AWE of the courage of the hurricane hunters*

[canegrl04]

Sorry. for the inappropriate post

[flarrfan]

The 1935 Labor Day storm?

[Guest]

Thankyou god!

[Fodie77]

000
WTNT74 KNHC 112035
SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

20.0N 82.0W 48 X X X 48 KEY WEST FL X 8 8 3 19
21.5N 83.1W 16 16 X X 32 MARCO ISLAND FL X 1 8 6 15
23.1N 84.0W X 20 6 1 27 FT MYERS FL X X 7 8 15
MKJS 185N 779W 37 X X X 37 VENICE FL X X 5 10 15
MWCG 193N 814W 58 X X X 58 TAMPA FL X X 2 11 13
MUCF 221N 805W 12 6 1 1 20 CEDAR KEY FL X X 1 11 12
MUSN 216N 826W 20 12 X X 32 ST MARKS FL X X X 11 11
MUHA 230N 824W 2 21 2 1 26 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 13 13
MUAN 219N 850W X 20 3 1 24 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 12 12
MMCZ 205N 869W X 4 4 2 10 PENSACOLA FL X X X 10 10
MYGF 266N 787W X X X 4 4 MOBILE AL X X X 8 8
MMMD 210N 897W X X X 2 2 GULFPORT MS X X X 7 7
MARATHON FL X 5 7 4 16 BURAS LA X X X 8 8
MIAMI FL X X 5 5 10 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 5 5
W PALM BEACH FL X X 2 6 8 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 2 2
FT PIERCE FL X X 1 7 8 GULF 29N 85W X X 1 13 14
COCOA BEACH FL X X 1 6 7 GULF 29N 87W X X X 13 13
DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 7 7 GULF 28N 89W X X X 11 11
JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 6 6 GULF 28N 91W X X X 5 5
SAVANNAH GA X X X 2 2

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON
C FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON
D FROM 2PM MON TO 2PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


$$

[TampaFl]

I agree 100%. Any slight deveation to the right of the track could/will put extreme hurricane conditions along the west coast. (remeber Hurricane Charley).

[B-Bear]

I think I can only name a few.Camille,Gilbert,Mitch,Andrew. Whats the 5th?

Notice anything disturbing about that list?

[storm monkey]

Checked the track of Camille and found her to be @ 19.4 N 82 W

Ivan is Forecast to be @ 20 N 82 W

Interesting that they would have similar appearance (at times), both reach Cat 5 strength, time will tell if there will be anymore similarities from here!

[Bane]

I'd like ot laugh, but people have and will die from this killer storm.

[Possum Trot]

Thanks anjou. That is interesting.

Chilly, I wish your friends well.

[HURAKAN]

Iván vs. Gilbert, will Gilbert hold its records? No one knows but Iván is still intensifying.

[Pebbles]

all men?

[gkrangers]

For the record, Jamaica was going to be a direct hit too..and..you know.

[B-Bear]

Look how many of them, including Ivan, have been since 1980.

[Frank P]

Camille was a Lady... well, she is named as a Lady, but she was NO LADY....