Ivan Advisories

[Burn1]

Mitch was somewhat amazing in that it was a mid-Oct storm. The flooding in Cental America was devastating

[Guest]

How fast does it look like Ivan is moving now, I haven't had time to check.

[Raebie]

Listening now. I'm craving pina coladas.

[anjou]

Hmm... as to Grand Cayman, it has something called Pirates Caves but I've no idea if they're high up or deep underground.

Did see this, FWIW:

"Small but worth a visit is the Cayman Islands National Museum in George Town. This museum opened in 1990 in the Old Courts Building, has survived hurricanes and storms and has served many purposes through its existence..."
http://gocaribbean.about.com/library/we ... 61500a.htm

And this... the entire piece is a really good read about past events that have swept Grand Cayman and its smaller island neighbors:

"Anyway, during those terrible days of 1846-1847 help came to the people in the form of two ship wrecks in close proximity, one laden with general cargo and the other carrying dressed lumber. Neither ship was salvaged, thus the people's spirits were revived and taking new courage, they soon began to return to a semi normal life, even as before the great tempest. The south side of Grand Cayman suffered a total loss of their possessions at that time, but no lives were lost either on land or sea. Truly God was good to those settlers from year to year, as they watched their meagre possessions disappear before their very eyes while they themselves survived to fight on.

Moving on to the year 1876 there was another blow up that lasted from the 12th to the 17th of October. October always seems to have been the fearful month and not September, as the old folks thought; while the turbulent years were always in the sixth year of the decade.

Once again most of the houses were shattered; but the settlers had long ago learned how to hide themselves away from the fury of the tempest by taking shelter in the many caves and high cliffs in and around the island."

http://www.caymannetnews.com/Archive/Ar ... 0Land.html

Wow - just checked the main page of that site - excellent updates on the preparedness situation in Grand Cayman, etc., now.
http://www.caymannetnews.com/

[Bane]

From the NHC's most intense hurricanes making landfall in the USA:

Code: Select all

18   Allen (S TX)    1980   3   945   27.91

Was Allen stronger before his approach to Texas?

[B-Bear]

From the NHC's most intense hurricanes making landfall in the USA:

Code: Select all

18   Allen (S TX)    1980   3   945   27.91

Was Allen stronger before his approach to Texas?

Yes, he dropped to 899 in the Yucatan Channel.

[Derek Ortt]

I'd be surprised if the storm surge exceeded 6-8 feet. However, the deeper water tends to be more condusive to high waves, so we could see waves well over 40 feet (similar to what happened to Kauai with Iniki)

[Opal storm]

I don't think we will see Ivan turn NE any time soon.With it continuing to move wnw and take huge wobbles to the west,the more unlikely a Florida peninsula landfall becomes.That's why I think soon we will see a huge shift west in the forecasted track,just my opinion

[lman]

Can anyone tell me what weather conditions I could expect standing in the eye of an intense cat 5 hurricane? I have heard sometimes there are flocks of birds that are "trapped" in the eye that get carried with the storm.

[Fodie77]

How fast does it look like Ivan is moving now, I haven't had time to check.

Well, at 5pm it was moving WNW at 9mph, I doubt it has changed much since then.

[LowMug]

18Z ETA has it now turning towards the mouth of the MS...not to mention the last 3 frames are showing a due west 270 degree motion...and the 18Z ETA is showing this happening...

[anjou]

From the last site in my prior post:

Excerpt of report on preparedness stuff:
...As of 2:15 pm on Saturday, as the first intermittent rain bands and wind gusts from Hurricane Ivan arrived, residents of Grand Cayman were heeding warnings and responding to appeals to get to one of the hurricane shelters on the island.

The Red Cross shelter had a few beds left, but there was ample space available at John Gray and George Hicks High Schools.

The new Prospect Primary School seems to be the shelter of choice for many people, and residents of the Pines have also been moved there. A number of visitors were also taking advantage of the shelter facilities to ride out the approaching storm.

According to the Deputy District Commissioner, some 500 people (representing one half of the entire population of Cayman Brac) had sought shelter at the Ashton Rutty Civic Centre on the Bluff...

[LSUChamps0002]

It is a good idea, except when a thread gets over 50-60 messages, it gets a bit time consuming going back through every post. Either way you are using bandwidth and time.

It is the price you pay for having the best tropical site on the net, that I have found.

Maybe just some donations through paypal would be a good idea. Once Ivan is gone, they can shut down the site temporarily and make their updates.

But, nonetheless, a decent idea.

[hurricanefloyd5]

http://www.weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/mod ... ......From tampa northward are still endanger of getting this hurricane including central florida

[Lockhart]

1 minute South and 9 minutes West? As a degree is about 70 miles, each minute is a little over one mile. That's one mile South (and only 10 miles West). That's nothing, really.

Also, the NHC says in their forecast messages that the coordinates are correct within ten nautical miles--that's about 9 minutes. So that "wobble" is well within the margin of error.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I think the Grand Cayman's are in for some serious trouble. I didn't see this link, but here's how I feel... http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=44073

[Bane]

I see from the above post he was. Where did he form?

[Guest]

Category 5 Hurricane — winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. Flooding causes major damage to lower floors of all structures near the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas may be required.
- Examples: Andrew(FL) 1992, Camille 1969 and Labor Day 1935
(source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/ba ... nter.shtml)

...Jennifer...

[Bane]

Nevermind, I found the map.

[Fodie77]

It is a good idea, except when a thread gets over 50-60 messages, it gets a bit time consuming going back through every post. Either way you are using bandwidth and time.

It is the price you pay for having the best tropical site on the net, that I have found.

Maybe just some donations through paypal would be a good idea. Once Ivan is gone, they can shut down the site temporarily and make their updates.

But, nonetheless, a decent idea.

I've done threads like this on other boards before. Generally, once the message count gets high, you do a table of contents like feature on the first post.