Ivan Advisories

rockyman · #4781 Postby **rockyman** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:53 pm

i don't see a dramatic shift yet

Foladar · #4782 Postby **Foladar** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:53 pm

ericinmia wrote:http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/500_mu_loop.shtml

Don't see any east in that link, looks the same as the current track

Bane · #4783 Postby **Bane** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:53 pm

CMC is junk. UKMET seems to have shifted east and it is still in the panhandle as well.

Fodie77 · #4784 Postby **Fodie77** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:54 pm

tronbunny wrote:overall, Ivan has moved about 32 miles WNW over the last 3 hours.
1730Z=17.9N 78.9W to
2044Z= 18.1N 79.3W
if Ivan "stays the course" he should be about
00Z= 18.3N 79.7W
That would be right on target with the tropical suite and behind (just a hair south and east) the UKMET.

Boy, this sure is going to be a close one for Cuba, in terms of a direct hit, that is.

#4785 Postby **USAwx1** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:54 pm

manofsteele79 wrote:And the new GFDL has landfall on the AL/MS border. I'm not sure either of these models are reliable past 48-72 hours.

the GFDL is MOST reliable within 60hrs.

das8929 · #4786 Postby **das8929** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:55 pm

It can "wobble" NW just as easily it can wobble west.

rainstorm · #4787 Postby **rainstorm** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:55 pm

nope. gilbert allen?.

Lockhart · #4788 Postby **Lockhart** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:55 pm

That looks just the same as the old track. Why do you say East??

ursa minor · #4789 Postby **ursa minor** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:56 pm

The weather channel just moved the edges of there projected path to include Mississippi on the west. They are catching up to everyone else.

Website · #4790 Postby **Brent** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:57 pm

NHC projected path touches Eastern Louisiana. :wink:

#4791 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:57 pm

Fodie77 · #4792 Postby **Fodie77** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:57 pm

Please post things like this here:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=44083

Foladar · #4793 Postby **Foladar** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:58 pm

Sean in New Orleans wrote:
Foladar wrote:It's just a wobble.

I seriously doubt it---you won't see me start a thread like this unless I see, at least, 3 frames of consistent motion--I know better than that!!

Keep doubting then, let me guess..you think it's going to New Orleans? It's been wobbling west, then wobbling north.

Anonymous · #4794 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:59 pm

That is a 2nd trough, which will/may influence Ivan later in the forecast track.

The one that was hung up over the SE, that was originally supposed to have influenced the movement of Ivan, has been diminishing.

Rainband...the next time I have a newsflash.... :cheesy:

...I will be sure to let you know. I never said any where was out of the woods. My only comment was; "The west coast of Florida LOOKS spared".

Did I say they were out of the woods? I don't think so.

dennis1x1 · #4795 Postby **dennis1x1** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:59 pm

the west trend continues.....hopefully this saves grand cayman like it did jamaica.....would need a 310-315 to commence soon for a direct hit on grand cayman..

#4796 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:59 pm

Post about tracks in Fodies thread to then not have many threads about the same theme.

#4797 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:59 pm

Ok, let's stop bashing the CMC. Just because it is the left outlier, doesn't mean it is incorrect. In fact, it has been more accurate than ANY other model so far. It has also been the furthest west w/ this storm, and now nearly every model has shifted to the left in suit. The end game is where we'll find out what model "wins", but right now, it is well ahead of the rest of the pack. The GFS, on the other hand, is dead last. Let's see if it does as well in the shorter periods w/ it's higher resolution.

chris_fit · #4798 Postby **chris_fit** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:59 pm

Big EZ wrote:That is a 2nd trough, which will/may influence Ivan later in the forecast track.

The one that was hung up over the SE, that was originally supposed to have influenced the movement of Ivan, has been diminishing.

Rainband...the next time I have a newsflash.... ...I will be sure to let you know. I never said any where was out of the woods. My only comment was; "The west coast of Florida LOOKS spared".

Did I say they were out of the woods? I don't think so.

That was forecasted

mobilebay · #4799 Postby **mobilebay** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:59 pm

For some reason my computer is not updating it is showing an old run. Or something is going on with this run of the GFS. I WAS NOT trying to get a rise out of the board with my GFS thread so go easy please! I'm sorry.

Fodie77 · #4800 Postby **Fodie77** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:00 pm

cycloneye wrote:Post about tracks in Fodies thread to then not have many threads about the same theme.

God bless you!! Its nice to have a mod on board!!

Ivan Advisories

TWC SHIFTING WEST

I'm so sorry about the GFS

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